October 27th, 2014
It's a terrible week on the home market with no major releases. The biggest theatrical release is Begin Again, which earned excellent reviews, but opened in limited release and never expanded truly wide. The best new release on the list is the limited edition Breaking Bad: The Complete Series 2014 Barrel, but it costs more than $200, so it is out of the price range of most people. Besides those two releases, there's more filler than releases worth talking about. Begin Again wins Pick of the Week, practically by default, as it is the only release I can enthusiastically recommend.
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July 14th, 2014
As expected, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes earned first place and it finished on the high end of reasonable expectations. Unfortunately, it crushed the competition earning more than four times more than the second place film, Transformers: Age of Extinction. It made almost as much as the rest of the box office combined made, so the overall box office was still soft for this time of year at just $149 million. Granted, this is 13% higher than last weekend, but more troublesome, it was 23% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2014 is now more than $200 million lower than 2013's pace at $5.57 billion to $5.78 billion.
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July 13th, 2014
In the midst of a disappointing Summer for Hollywood, the arrival of an unabashed success is welcome news indeed, and that’s what we have this weekend, with Dawn of the Planet of the Apes delivering an excellent $73 million opening weekend, well ahead of early industry expectations. The success of the film is most likely down to two factors: first, its reviews have been excellent, and, second, its storyline is sufficiently interesting to draw in people who aren’t excited by the thought of yet another super hero/monster movie. After the success of Maleficent and the failure of Edge of Tomorrow, films that strive to be a bit different are now scoring 2 out of 3 this Summer; films that are the product of formulas and marketing departments haven’t produced a single out-and-out hit. If the studios could get the message in the that, we really would see the dawn of something.
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July 7th, 2014
As expected, Transformers: Age of Extinction won the race to the top of the box office chart and did so with ease. However, that film, and practically every film in the top five, failed to live up to expectations. Tammy still took second place with ease, but it was the only other film to earn more than $10 million over the Independence Day long weekend. Overall, the box office pulled in $132 million over the weekend, which is 27% less than last weekend. Compared to the same weekend last year, the box office was 42% lower this year. Ouch. To put this into perspective, even if you take out Despicable Me 2 from last year's box office, 2014 would have still failed to match 2013's weekend numbers. Year-to-date, 2014 is now $130 million or 2.4% below 2013's pace at $5.35 billion to $5.48 billion. It is still too early to panic, but if things don't turn around soon, the panic button will be pushed.
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July 6th, 2014
After opening around the $100 million mark last weekend, Transformers: Age of Extinction was always the odds-on favorite to win this weekend, and even a 64% fall will be enough to keep it top with a projected $36.4 million for the Friday–Sunday period. That’s well ahead of Tammy, which will post a respectable $21.2 million for the three-day weekend and almost $33 million in total by the end of Sunday. That’s plenty for a film that cost $20 million to make.
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July 3rd, 2014
There are three wide releases and a wide expansion this week all hoping to take advantage if the Independence Day long weekend. (There was to be one more wide expansion, but Begin Again is expanding to less than 200 theaters.) Tammy is the biggest of these wide releases and it is the latest Melissa McCarthy vehicle and might be a surprise $100 million hit. Deliver Us From Evil and Earth to Echo were in a close battle for third place on Wednesday, but I think their futures will be quite different. Finally, America: Imagine a World Without Her is expanding to over 1,000 theaters. This isn't enough to compete with the new releases, but it could compete for a spot in the top ten. While there are a lot of new releases, Transformers: Age of Extinction will win the race for top spot in the box office chart, unless something surprising happens. The only thing more surprising than Age of Extinction getting knocked out of top spot would be if the overall box office was stronger that the same weekend last year when Despicable Me 2 opened with more than $80 million during the three-day weekend.
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July 1st, 2014
Despite there being a $100 million hit on the box office this weekend, Begin Again still led the way on the per theater chart with an average of $26,813 in five theaters. This bodes well for its expansion on Wednesday. The overall number one film, Transformers: Age of Extinction, was next with an average of $23,633 in more than 4,000 theaters. Snowpiercer was the third film to earn a per theater average over $20,000 with an average of $20,266 in eight theaters. America: Imagine a World Without Her was next with an average of $12,869 million in three theaters. Yves Saint Laurent was a surprise entry in the $10,000 club with an average of $12,104 in two theaters. It managed this despite earning weak reviews and opening on the Wednesday. The final film in the $10,000 club was Code Black, which climbed into the $10,000 club during its second weekend of release with $10,953 in two theaters. It is rare for a documentary to do this well, and it is even rarer for a film to see its per theater average grow.
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July 1st, 2014
Overall, June was not good. Most films matched expectations, or came close enough that there weren't major disappointments. However, it looks like How to Train Your Dragon 2 will miss expectations by more than $100 million. This was such a massive amount that 2014 lost its lead over 2013 and not even Transformers: Age of Extinction's $100 million opening was able to turn things around. Looking forward to July, there's not a lot of good news. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes might be the only film coming out during July that will reach the $100 million milestone, but on the high end, it might reach the $200 million mark. There are a few others that have a shot, but are not favored to reach the century mark. On the other hand, there are more films that may or may not open / expand wide and even if they do, they will likely have no real impact at the box office. By comparison, last July, Despicable Me 2 was the top draw and finished with more than $350 million. There were also four other films that surpassed $100 million at the box office. It seems practically impossible for 2014 to match those numbers and will likely finish the month behind last year's pace. Overall, 2014 isn't doing poorly, but the summer has been much weaker than the spring was, so we've gone from potential record breaking year to merely average.
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June 29th, 2014
Transformers: Age of Extinction is set to deliver the year’s biggest weekend, as it performs to sell-out crowds across the country. Paramount is projecting a weekend total of $100 million as of Sunday morning, which honestly seems like a conveniently round number. Perhaps the studio is playing it safe, and the actual weekend number will be a few million over $100 million? Or maybe they’re hoping that announcing a $100 million weekend will help encourage people to theaters today and push the film over the line? Based on the numbers we’re seeing, it looks more like the latter, and we’ll have to wait until Monday to see if Age of Extinction will actually be the first $100 million opener of the year. At the end of the day, it probably doesn’t matter a huge amount: $99 million versus $101 million is a rounding error, and the film has topped $200 million internationally this weekend, which is a great start towards repaying its reported $210 million production budget.
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June 27th, 2014
There are more than a dozen limited releases on this week's list, including two films that are opening in limited release this week with a scheduled wide expansion next week. Unfortunately, I don't have high hopes for either of those two films. There are some films worth checking out, including a pair of documentaries, The Internet's Own Boy: The Story of Aaron Swartz and Whitey: United States of America v. James J. Bulger, both of which are also playing on Video on Demand. The film I hope has the best start is Snowpiercer, a South Korean film that is earning amazing reviews.
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