March 15th, 2016
There are several top-notch releases coming out this week, including a trio of Awards Season contenders: The Big Short, Brooklyn, and Carol. All three are Pick of the Week contenders. However, the winner of that title is Game of Thrones: Season Five on Blu-ray.
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March 2nd, 2016
There are some really good releases on this week's Home Market Release Report, including many that either won or were competing for Oscars, like Creed, Room, etc. However, once you get past the cream of the crop, there isn't much in the way of depth. Most of the Oscar contenders are Pick of the Week Contenders, but the best release by far is The Adventures of Bob & Doug McKenzie: Strange Brew on Blu-ray. This is the greatest movie ever made.
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February 28th, 2016
Voting in our annual Predict the Academy Awards contest is now closed, and we can reveal the final vote totals in each category, along with the rough probability for which film will win each award. This is a year where readers are very confident about the outcomes in many of the categories. In fact, there isn’t a single major category where less than 50% of readers picked the same winner, and there are five Oscars where 90% or more of readers agreed on the outcome, including a massive 97% of the vote for Inside Out for Best Animated Feature. That makes The Revenant a rather more uncertain bet, with 70% of readers favoring it for Best Picture. That’s actually theoretically the closest call among all the major prizes…
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February 28th, 2016
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It’s Oscar day and, if all goes to plan, I will be live-blogging the ceremony tonight. Here is the list of nominees marked according to predictions from our readers, and my personal wishes. Nominees in Bold are the ones predicted to win by our readers (we’ll have a full rundown of the predictions at noon, after the contest ends). If I am predicting a different film, those are in Italics. Meanwhile, the nominees I want to win, but don’t think will win, are Underlined. There are a few categories where the film I really think deserves the award was not even nominated, plus a few I don’t have a real opinion on.
If you haven’t done so already, it’s not too late to enter our Oscar competition, and win all Best Picture nominees on Blu-ray or DVD.
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February 26th, 2016
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With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. The Best Lead Actress is not generating a lot of buzz, but one actress has been constantly winning and is the overwhelming favorite.
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February 24th, 2016
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This year, Best Supporting Actress is a two-horse race, making it one of the more competitive categories of the ones we are going to look at.
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February 20th, 2016
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. The Best Adapted Screenplay category is about as competitive as the Best Original Screenplay, which is to say it isn't competitive at all.
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February 15th, 2016
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The BAFTA awards were handed out over the weekend. There were two main winners, The Revenant, which won most of its five awards in the high-prestige categories, and Mad Max: Fury Road, which earn all four of its awards in technical categories. It appears the Oscars will be very similar in that breakdown.
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January 15th, 2016
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The Oscar nominations were announced at 5:30 am Pacific time. Nothing is good that early in the morning. Worse still, this was a terrible year for snubs, especially when it comes to diversity of the nominees. The voters for the Oscars are 94% white and 77% male... but that's still more diverse than the list of nominees. The Revenant led the way with 12 nominations and it is expected to win a few of those, while it is a serious contender in most of the categories it was nominated in.
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January 14th, 2016
The Directors Guild of America spread out the nominations, which I always felt hurt the buzz. There are ten categories of awards, but only three of which pertain to theatrical releases. There are very few surprises across these three categories, so the Oscar nominations today shouldn't be full of surprises either.
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January 13th, 2016
There were only three films in the $10,000 club this weekend and all of them were holdovers. Leading the way was Anomalisa with an average of $12,738 in 17 theaters. At this pace, the film will earn some measure of mainstream success. However, unless it wins an Oscar, it likely won't match its $8 million production budget in theaters. The Revenant slipped into second place with $11,801, while the overall number one film, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, was next with $10,245.
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January 11th, 2016
The Golden Globes were handed out on Sunday evening. There were a few minor surprises and some infuriating results. On the other hand, no one film truly dominated, with The Revenant leading the way with just three wins. Only two other movies earned more than one win, The Martian and Steve Jobs.
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January 9th, 2016
The BAFTA nominations were announced and you can read them on their site... in alphabetical order. Alphabetical order is very useful in most circumstances, but not here. On the other hand, the nominees within each category are not presented in alphabetical order. ... Are the BAFTAs trolling us? As for the actual nominees, the big winners here are Bridge of Spies and Carol, both of which earned nine nominations. For Carol, this is just another impressive score, but this was a pleasant surprise for Bridge of Spies.
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January 6th, 2016
The Writers Guild of America nominees were announced and there are only a few surprises here. Additionally, one of these three races seems too close to call at this point.
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January 5th, 2016
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The Revenant remained on top of the theater average chart dipping just 6% to an average of $111,957 in four theaters. That's amazing and it bodes very well for its chances during its wide expansion this weekend. Furthermore, there are some major Awards Season events this week that could boost ticket sales even more. Anomalisa was well back in second place, but it still had an impressive opening with an average of $33,806 over the weekend and an average of $52,658 during its five-day opening. Star Wars: The Force Awakens was next with an average of $21,829. Chimes at Midnight earned $20,480 in one theater during its re-release, while Only Yesterday earned $14,970, also in one theater. The latter film is yet another success for GKIDS; this is the only studio that routinely has success with animated films in limited release. 45 Years remained in the $10,000 club with an average of $14,588 in six theaters. It doubled its theater count, but the average only fell 33% and that's a great sign for further expansion. Mr. Six is the fourth holdover in the $10,000 club earning an average of $10,406 in 28 theaters.
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December 29th, 2015
The Revenant had the best theater average of the week and the second best opening theater average of the year with $474,560 in four theaters for an average of $118,640. The only film to open in 2015 with a better theater average was Steve Jobs with an average of $130,381. It struggled during its wide expansion. Hopefully that won't happen here. The Hateful Eight was next with an average of $46,107 in 100 theaters. The overall number one film, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, was next with an average of $36,092. This would have been the fourth best opening weekend average for a wide release all year. 45 Years opened with an average of $21,925 in three theaters over the weekend and an average of $30,119 over its five-day opening. Daddy's Home was the second wide release in the $10,000 club with an average of $11,844. Mr. Six just missed the $10,000 club over the weekend with an average of $9,562 in 30 theaters; however, it earned an average of $12,500 over its four-day opening.
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December 22nd, 2015
Star Wars: The Force Awakens led the way on the theater average chart and broke the record for highest theater average for a wide release. Its average was $59,982, which is the fifth best opening theater average this year. This is just ahead of Ex Machina and just behind Carol. The Big Short fell 46% to $47,286. A 46% drop-off is bad news for a limited release most of the time, but The Force Awakens hurt all of the holdovers and I'm still bullish on its box office chances for its Wednesday expansion. Carol remained in the $10,000 for the fifth week in a row, this time earning an average of $14,446 in 16 theaters. Mojin: The Lost Legend opened with an average of $12,726 in 22 theaters, while Son of Saul was right behind with an average of $12,643.
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December 15th, 2015
We have a new champion on top of the per theater chart this week, as The Big Short earned one of the best limited release openings of the year. Its average of $88,191 was behind only Steve Jobs for the year and Steve Jobs opened in half as many theaters as The Big Short, 8 to 4. Carol remained strong in second place with an average of $21,105 in 16 theaters. Thankfully it is expanding, but I'm worried the studio waited too long and it won't reach its potential. Yellow Day opened with an average of $13,130 in two theaters. The Danish Girl rounded out the $10,000 club with an average of $10,964 in 24 theaters. By this time next week, it could be over $1 million in total.
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December 13th, 2015
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay—Part 2 will cruise to another victory at the box office this weekend, for the simple reason that In the Heart of the Sea is having a terrible opening. Mockingjay will be down another 40% in its fourth weekend, and will pick up a relatively modest $11.3 million, taking its domestic total to $244.5 million. That confirms it as comfortably the worst-performing film in the franchise, and even a Christmas-season boost at the box office will leave it under $300 million in total. That, however, is unimaginable riches compared to the performance of Heart of the Sea.
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December 10th, 2015
The Golden Globes nominations were announced this morning and we are already beginning to see a trend for this year's Awards Season. For the most part, the same films are coming up over and over again. Carol led the way with five awards, while there was a three-way tie for second place with The Big Short, The Revenant and Steve Jobs each picking up four.
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December 9th, 2015
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The Screen Actors Guild nominations were announced today and there are at least a few surprises to talk about. Trumbo led the way with three nominations, but there were six films with two nods apiece. Six!
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December 8th, 2015
For the third weekend in a row, Carol earned first place on the per theater chart, this time with an average of $36,281. It is still playing in only four theaters, which is a huge mistake in my mind. It really should have expanded by now. The Danish Girl remained in second place with an average of $26,089, also in four theaters. It too should expand. The best new release was Youth, which opened with an average of $19,521, again in four theaters. Macbeth was playing in five theaters and earned an average of $13,967. Hitchcock/Truffaut opened with an average of $9,393 in three theaters over the weekend, but it was a Wednesday release. Its five-day average was $11,927.
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December 6th, 2015
Krampus is providing the industry with some surprise post-Thanksgiving, pre-Holiday cheer this weekend, with an opening well ahead of expectations amongst a crowd of slightly disappointing results. Mockingjay, Part 2 will top the chart with $18.6 million, which is off a surprisingly steep 64%. With the film expected to hit $20 million or so this weekend, that’s a disappointment, and makes a final total of $300 million look just out of reach. The Good Dinosaur was expected to have the legs of a Pixar movie, and is instead looking more like a run-of-the-mill high-budget animated film, so instead of topping $20 million, it is down 60% to $15.5 million for the weekend. That left an opening for Krampus, which will take second spot overall with a $16-million debut.
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December 1st, 2015
Carol remained in first place on the per theater chart with an average of $49,443 in four theaters. This is 22% lower than the film's opening weekend average, which isn't bad for a limited release. The Danish Girl opened in a close second place with $46,830, also in four theaters. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2 earned first place on the overall chart and third place on the per theater chart with an average of $12,456. Janis: Little Girl Blue earned an average of $10,931 in two theaters, which is great for a documentary. The second wide release in the $10,000 club was The Good Dinosaur with an average of $10,444.
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November 29th, 2015
The combined forces of a 50% weekend-to-weekend decline at the box office and two strong rivals wasn’t enough to knock The Hunger Games: Mockingjay—Part 2 off its perch at the top of the box office chart this Thanksgiving. With a three-day total of $51.6 million (and $75.8 million over five), the franchise-capper will finish the holiday just shy of $200 million at the domestic box office. With a reported $242.4 million overseas, the film is hurrying towards $500 million worldwide, and sits at $440.7 million as of Sunday evening.
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November 25th, 2015
Awards Season begins with the Independent Spirit Awards nominations. There were definitely some surprise nominees this year, but that also meant there were some unfortunate snubs as well. The overall leader was Carol, which just opened this past weekend. This is great timing and should help its box office numbers, as well as its chances throughout Awards Season. Its six nominations were one ahead of Beasts of No Nation and Spotlight. (One of Spotlight's was the Robert Altman Award, which has no nominations, just one winner.)
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November 24th, 2015
Carol had a festive opening earning just over $250,000 in four theaters for an average of $63,378. That's the third best average for an opening this year, just ahead of Ex Machina and just behind Sicario. The overall box office leader, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2, was next with an average of $24,591. Legend was next with an average of $21,709 in four theaters. That's a good start, but its reviews suggest not so good legs. Speaking of long legs, Brooklyn remained in the $10,000 for the third week in a row earning an average of $10,270 in just over 100 theaters.
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November 22nd, 2015
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay—Part 2 is about to record the most disappointing $100 million weekend ever, based on Sunday’s estimate from Lionsgate. Why disappointing? Because its $101.025 million projected opening follows the $158 million earned by Catching Fire on this weekend in 2013 (then the sixth-biggest weekend ever), and the $122 million debut of Mockingjay—Part 1 this weekend last year. That marks a decline of 20% or so from one installment of the franchise to the next, which is the worst performance of any franchise to have recorded a $100 million start. Global numbers tell a similar story: $247 million this weekend against Part 1’s $275 million. However, once we get that troubling statistic out the way, this is also a reason for celebration: $100 million domestically and $250 million globally in one weekend is still a huge amount of money, and caps a spectacularly successful franchise for Lionsgate.
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November 20th, 2015
There are three or four films on this week's list vying for Awards Season Glory, but of these three, Carol has by far the best shot at picking up major nominations. In fact, it is considered a favorite for five major nominations, including Best Picture. Will it win any of these? Getting off to a fast start in limited release will help its chances.
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