Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

Home Market Releases for July 26th, 2016

July 27th, 2016

It’s a rather shallow week on the home market with the biggest release being Batman: The Killing Joke, which is a hot mess. More on that below. As for the best new release of the week, there are a handful of releases that were contenders for Pick of the Week, including Barbershop: The Next Cut, Deadline U.S.A., and Mystery Science Theater 3000: Volume XXXVI. In the end, I picked Sing Street on Blu-ray for that title. More...

Home Market Releases for July 12th, 2016

July 12th, 2016

It is a very slow week for the home market. The biggest release of the week is The Divergent: Series Allegiant, which is a movie most people should avoid. (Looking at its box office numbers, most people did avoid it.) As for the best releases, Belladonna Of Sadness is amazing, but the screener arrived late and I don’t like handing out that title when I haven’t had a chance to check out the full release. Fortunately, we do have a backup contender, Everybody Wants Some on Blu-ray Combo Pack. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Jungle Sets 2016 Sophomore Record with $61.54 Million

April 26th, 2016

Both The Jungle Book and The Huntsman: Winter's War were a little weaker than predicted over the weekend. The Jungle Book was still able to earn the biggest sophomore weekend of 2016 at $61.54 million. For The Huntsman: Winter's War, it was a disappointing $19.45 million. Overall, the box office fell 28% to $128 million. However, this was still 32% more than the same weekend last year. Unfortunately, next weekend is going to be damn awful in the year-over-year comparison, because of a misalignment in the weekend. Year-to-date, 2016 has earned $3.37 million, putting it ahead of last year's pace by 8.5% or $260 million. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Jungle is King of the Box Office pulling in $103.26 million

April 18th, 2016

Wow. As expected, The Jungle Book easily won first place on the box office chart, but did so with a much, much better than anticipated result of $103.26 million during its opening weekend. This is more than the rest of the box office earned. Barbershop: The Next Cut did well as counter-programming earning $20.24 million. On the other hand, Criminal missed the top five and barely managed to avoid the Mendoza Line. The overall box office was $176 million, which was 68% more than last weekend and 47% more than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 has earned $3.19 billion at the box office, which is 9.2% / $270 million more than last year's pace. I didn't think 2016 had a chance to top 2015, but I'm really getting optimistic now. More...

Weekend Estimates: Jungle Book projected to top $100 million

April 17th, 2016

2016 is shaping up to be just about the perfect year on all fronts for Disney. They started the year with Star Wars at the top of the box office; Zootopia far out-performed expectations; Captain America: Civil War, Alice Through the Looking Glass and Finding Dory position them perfectly for the Summer; and Doctor Strange and Star Wars: Rogue One are two of the most talked about movies coming at the end of the year. (Oh, and they’re slipping a long-awaited Steven Spielberg family-friendly film in the middle of all that.)

All-in-all, this could be a year of studio dominance the likes of which we haven’t seen since, well, last year, when Universal could do no wrong. Their incredible year really took flight at the beginning of April, when Furious 7 posted a monthly record $147 million opening weekend. The Jungle Book won’t hit those heights, but it will most likely be the second film to top $100 million in April, with Disney projecting a weekend of $103.57 million as of Sunday morning. More...

Friday Estimates: Jungle Roars to the Top

April 16th, 2016

Friday's box office had some good news, some bad news, and some ugly news. The Jungle Book opened with an amazing $32.41 million on Friday. Given its family-friendly target demographic and its 95% positive reviews, it should have a great internal multiplier. For example, Cinderella opened with $23.00 million during its opening day on the way to an opening weekend of $67.88 million. If The Jungle Book has the same internal multiplier, it will earn $96 million over the weekend. However, films that open bigger have a harder time maintaining those numbers. An opening weekend of $90 million is possible, but I think it will fall just short of that mark. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Jungle Made a Lot of Noise Last Night

April 15th, 2016

The Jungle Book has stellar previews pulling in $4.2 million in Thursday. That's not as big as Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice or Deadpool made earlier this year. However, it is more than the $2.3 million Cinderella earned last year. This bodes well for its weekend run. More...

Weekend Predictions: Welcome to the Jungle

April 15th, 2016

Hollywood's attempt to redefine the start of summer as "some time in April" continue this week with the release of The Jungle Book. This film is expected to dominate the box office this weekend and possibly next weekend as well. Barbershop: The Next Cut is also expected to do well, perhaps earning the biggest opening in the franchise, not taking into account inflation. Finally there's Criminal, which should just be happy with a spot in the top five. This weekend last year, Furious 7 led the way, but Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 and Unfriended were close behind. Fortunately, it looks like The Jungle Book will earn more than those three made combined. 2016 should have a good week on the year-over-year comparison. More...

2016 Preview: April

April 1st, 2016

March was a really good month, for the most part. There were a few bombs, but the two biggest films, Zootopia and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, both beat expectations by significant margins, so overall the box office was better than expected. Unfortunately, April is a mess, which makes prognosticating really tough. Every single week has at least one film that either moved, switched from wide to limited release, or disappeared entirely. The Jungle Book appears to be the biggest film of the year, but The Huntsman: Winter's War could also be a $100 million hit. Sadly, last April was led by Furious 7, which earned more than $350 million at the box office. That's very likely more than both The Jungle Book and The Huntsman: Winter's War will make combined. Worse still, there were only four weekends in April last year, meaning the month ends by going head-to-head with The Avengers: Age of Ultron. By the time the month ends, 2016's lead over 2015 might be gone. Let's hope it is not that bad. More...