October 30th, 2018
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It’s another slow week on the home market, with not a lot of big releases and not a lot of Pick of the Week contenders. There were several that came close, including 2001: A Space Odyssey, Never Goin’ Back, The Princess Bride, etc. In the end, Mandy on Blu-ray was the only true contender for that title.
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September 22nd, 2018
The House with a Clock in its Walls is the only new release that opened well on Friday, with $7.82 million during its opening day. Its reviews are in the overall positive level and it earned a B plus from CinemaScore. This is nearly identical to Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children and weaker than Goosebumps’ result. If this film has the same legs as Miss Peregrine, then it will earn $25 million during its opening weekend. That would be an amazing start for a film that cost $42 million to make and significantly better than we predicted.
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August 14th, 2018
The Meg was arguably the biggest box office surprise of the summer, earning more during its opening weekend than many thought it would earn in total and it doubled our prediction. It also earned more than the next three films earned combined, so it was a rather one-sided affair at the box office. Its $45.40 million debut did help the overall box office rise 5.6% from last weekend reaching $147 million. More importantly, this is 26% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2018 now has a 9.1% / $640 million lead over 2017 at $7.68 billion to $7.04 million.
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August 7th, 2018
Mission: Impossible—Fallout remained on top of the weekend box office chart thanks in part to a stronger than expected hold and in part to weaker than expected competition. Christopher Robin was the only new release to make any real noise opening in second place with $24.59 million, while The Spy Who Dumped Me opened with less than half of that. Overall, the box office earned $139 million, 11% lower than last weekend. More importantly, this was 14% higher than this weekend last year. 2018 extended its lead over 2017 to just under $600 million or 8.7% at $7.46 billion to $6.86 billion.
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August 5th, 2018
Mission: Impossible—Fallout fell just 43% during its second weekend earning $35.0 million for a two-week total of $124.5 million. It will have no trouble getting to $200 million domestically, especially with the weak competition for the rest of the month.
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August 4th, 2018
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There was a virtual tie on top of the Friday box office chart, which was good news for Paramount, but not so good news for Disney. Mission: Impossible—Fallout held on better than expected, remaining in first place with $9.85 million, and putting it on pace for $34 million over the weekend. With this result, it will cruise to $200 million domestically. This would be the first $200 million hit for Paramount since Transformers: Age of Extinction came out in 2014. Four years is a long time between $200 million hits.
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August 3rd, 2018
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Christopher Robin earned $1.5 million during its previews last night. There are not a lot of movies that are great matches for this movie, so it is hard to judge if this is a good start or not. This is almost exactly twice as large an opening as the $775,000 The BFG earned during its previews, so if this film earned the same legs, it would top our prediction by a few million dollars. I’ve seen some people compare it to Peter Rabbit, but that was a spring release. Another Pete, Pete’s Dragon, is a much better comparison, but it had no previews. Despite the lack of concrete data, I think this debut is on the high end of expectations and with good reviews, it should top $33 million over the weekend by a little bit. Anything more than $35 million would be a bit of a surprise.
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August 2nd, 2018
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There are four films opening wide or semi-wide during the first weekend of the August. This includes the only potential $100 million hit, Christopher Robin. The Spy Who Dumped Me’s roller coaster ride on Rotten Tomatoes appears to be coming to an end at the mediocre end of things, but that’s not bad compared to the average August release. On the other hand, bad is the best way to describe The Darkest Minds, while calling Death of a Nation “bad” is a glorious understatement. While most of the new releases are not expected to make an impact at the box office, there could be a close race on top between Christopher Robin and Mission: Impossible—Fallout. This weekend last year, The Dark Tower opened in first place with just under $20 million. This year, the top two films should beat that with ease. Last year’s depth was better, but 2018 should still win in the year-over-year comparison.
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August 1st, 2018
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Overall, July was a a little weaker than expected. Ant-Man and the Wasp appears to be on pace for $200 million, while it is too soon to tell if Mission: Impossible—Fallout will also get there. That said, 2018 is still ahead of 2017 by $550 million, so the month of July was a success in that regard. As for August, there’s only one movie that is expected to earn $100 million, Christopher Robin, and maybe a few others that could hit $50 million. It’s a rather sad slate of movies. Fortunately, last August was even worse, so 2018 should at least maintain its lead. Maybe we can get lucky and come away with a $600 million lead by the end of the month.
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