Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

DVD and Blu-ray Releases for October 21st, 2014

October 21st, 2014

Like last week, it is not a very busy week on the home market. However, unlike last week, there are not a lot of prime releases. The second to last DVD / Blu-ray release for Mad Men tops the list. Well, it is the second to last release, until the Full Season Megaset comes out. The biggest theatrical release is The Purge: Anarchy, which was a huge hit, given its budget, but not a monster hit. As for the Pick of the Week contenders, it's Mad Men and Snowpiercer on DVD or Blu-ray. In the end I had to flip a coin to decide. I came up heads. Then I realized I should probably decide which movie is heads before I flipped the coin. Let's try that again. Snowpiercer is the Pick of the Week. More...

Per Theater Chart: A Little Magic at the Box Office

July 29th, 2014

Magic in the Moonlight led the way on the per theater chart with an average of $24,241 in 17 theaters, which is great for most films, but not as strong as some of Woody Allen's more recent releases. Arguably, Boyhood's weekend was much stronger, as it earned an average of $16,466 in 107 theaters. At this point, I'm not sure how long it will last in theaters, but it has already earned at least a measure of mainstream success. The overall number one film, Lucy, was the only other film in the $10,000 club with an average of $13,835. More...

Weekend Predictions: Are New Releases Worth Their Weight in Diamonds?

July 25th, 2014

There are a trio of wide releases coming out this week, sort of. The first of these, if we go alphabetically is And So It Goes, but it is only opening in 1,762 theaters, which is not quite enough to be wide and likely not enough to reach the top five. Hercules and Lucy are both opening truly wide and both are earning reviews that are currently in the overall positive level. (Although it is close enough that it might change.) Lucy will very likely come out on top, while Hercules should earn second place. There's one more film of note, The Fluffy Movie, which is opening in 400 theaters and has a slim chance at making the top ten. This weekend last year saw the release of The Wolverine, which opened with $53.11 million. There's a chance the top two films won't make that much this year. In other words, 2014 is going to lose in the year-over-year comparison yet again. More...

Contest: In the Sky with Diamonds

July 18th, 2014

Next weekend there are two to four wide releases. Lucy and Hercules are opening wide. I'm not sure about And So It Goes and The Fluffy Movie is only opening in 400 theaters, more or less. Of these four films, Lucy has the best buzz and should earn first place with relative ease. As such, it is the clear choice for the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Lucy.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Unforgettable: Season Two on DVD, plus a previously reviewed TV on DVD release. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win two a previously reviewed TV on DVD releases. Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! More...

2014 Preview: July

July 1st, 2014

Overall, June was not good. Most films matched expectations, or came close enough that there weren't major disappointments. However, it looks like How to Train Your Dragon 2 will miss expectations by more than $100 million. This was such a massive amount that 2014 lost its lead over 2013 and not even Transformers: Age of Extinction's $100 million opening was able to turn things around. Looking forward to July, there's not a lot of good news. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes might be the only film coming out during July that will reach the $100 million milestone, but on the high end, it might reach the $200 million mark. There are a few others that have a shot, but are not favored to reach the century mark. On the other hand, there are more films that may or may not open / expand wide and even if they do, they will likely have no real impact at the box office. By comparison, last July, Despicable Me 2 was the top draw and finished with more than $350 million. There were also four other films that surpassed $100 million at the box office. It seems practically impossible for 2014 to match those numbers and will likely finish the month behind last year's pace. Overall, 2014 isn't doing poorly, but the summer has been much weaker than the spring was, so we've gone from potential record breaking year to merely average.

More...