March 2nd, 2014
The Oscars are being handed out this evening and as usual, we will be live-blogging the event. Here's the last look at the nominations with those chosen by our contest entrants as the likely winners in Bold. If I disagree with the consensus, they are in italics, and sharp-eyed readers will note there are no categories where that's true. Finally, if I am rooting for an underdog, they are underlined. There are only two categories where that is true. I want Chiwetel Ejiofor to win Best Lead Actor for his performance in 12 Years a Slave. I also want Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa to win for Best Hair and Make-up, because Dallas Buyers Club had a hair and make-up budget of $250. Yes it was effective, but the special effects make-up used in Bad Grandpa was just more difficult to pull off, even if the movie wasn't Oscar-bait. Regardless, I don't expect there to be many surprises at this year's awards.
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January 16th, 2014
The Oscar nominations were announced this morning and there are some surprises mixed in with the predictable results. Gravity and American Hustle led the way with ten nominations each while 12 Years a Slave was right behind with nine. The fact that 12 Years a Slave wasn't the leader is the first of the surprises.
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August 26th, 2013
It's a terrible week on the home market. There's not a lot in terms of top sellers, although The Great Gatsby should lead the way. The only first-run release is Pain and Gain, which will likely not sell a lot on the home market. There are a few TV on DVD releases to fill in the gaps, like The Walking Dead or Elementary; however, by the end of the first page of new releases on Amazon.com, we run into filler. As for Pick of the Week, the best is The Many Adventures of Winnie the Pooh on Blu-ray Combo Pack. I'm still waiting for the screener, but it is such a good movie and it is slow week that it is still Pick of the Week.
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May 29th, 2013
Memorial Day long weekend has come and gone and it was a boon to the box office numbers. Not only did Fast and Furious 6 reach the high end of predictions, as did Epic. On the other hand, The Hangover III struggled. The positives overrode the negatives by a large margin and the overall box office rose to $254.37 million, which is a new record for a three-day Memorial Day weekend. Adding in Monday, and the box office made $313.18 million. The three-day portion of the weekend rose 65% compared to last weekend and 67% compared to last year. This weekend earned more than $100 million more than the same weekend in 2012. That is something that usually only happens when there's a misalignment in holiday weekends. If you add in Monday, 2013's Memorial Day long weekend earned 63% more than the Memorial Day long weekend from 2012. Granted, 2013 is still far behind 2012, but this is great news. Hopefully it will keep up for a while.
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May 24th, 2013
It's the Memorial Day long weekend and there are three new films looking to take advantage of the holiday, plus a number of holdovers that will likely still bring in a lot of money. Fast and Furious 6 is leading the way in terms of box office potential and many think it will crack $100 million over four days; some think it will crack $100 million over three days. The Hangover III debuted on Thursday, which will give it a jump on the competition, but soften its weekend numbers. Finally, there's Epic, a family film that seems like a sure hit, except there is a lot of competition this weekend. Star Trek into Darkness, Iron Man 3, and The Great Gatsby are all still doing well and should provide some competition for the three new releases. All combined, those six films should make as much as the entire box office did last year and 2013 will start to close the gap with 2012.
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May 21st, 2013
There was some bad news this weekend, mostly at the top. Star Trek into Darkness did open in first place with a very healthy 4-day total, but it opened below its predecessor and not a lot of people were predicting that. The overall box office fell 2.8% from last weekend to $154 million. On the other hand, this was 7.8% higher than the same weekend last year, which is great news, as 2013 has really struggled in the year-over-year comparison. It's going to take a lot more than one good weekend to turn things around.
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May 16th, 2013
The second big summer release comes out this week, Star Trek into Darkness. The film has already opened internationally and has proven to be a bigger hit than its predecessor was, which is good news for its opening weekend. Iron Man 3 will likely take a pretty big hit due to the direct competition, while The Great Gatsby is a bit of a wild card. This weekend last year there were three wide releases, but the best of them was Battleship, which only made $25.53 million during its opening weekend, while all three new releases made a total of $53 million. Star Trek into Darkness should easily make more than that combined. However, The Avengers still dominated the chart last year and it will be that film that will be the biggest challenge in the year-over-year competition.
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May 15th, 2013
The winners of our Looking for Greatness contest were determined and they are...
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May 15th, 2013
Iron Man 3 again earned first place on the Per Theater Chart, but this time it was closer with an average of $17,053. The second best film on the per theater chart was the second best film on the overall chart, The Great Gatsby, which earned an average of $14,168. The best limited release was Stories We Tell with an average of $13,527 in two theaters. It had previously opened in Canada, where it made $360,000. One Track Heart: The Story of Krishna Das earned $11,515 in one theater.
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May 14th, 2013
Iron Man 3 remained on top of the chart, as expected, but the big news of the weekend was The Great Gatsby. The film opened with more than $50 million, which is twice as much as some analysts were expecting and about 50% more than the average. Does this mean 2013 ended its losing streak? Nope. Iron Man 3 missed expectations by a couple of million dollars, while Peeples bombed utterly. This left the overall box office down 27% from last weekend to $158 million. This is 7.5% lower than the same weekend last year. Hopefully Star Trek into Darkness will help end this losing streak next weekend.
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May 12th, 2013
To no-one's great surprise, Iron Man 3 will top the box office chart again this weekend, with a very creditable projected $72.4 million, the 4th-biggest second weekend of all time. The more notable number this weekend, however, is the $51 million projected opening for The Great Gatsby. That's Baz Luhrman's best weekend by a huge margin -- in fact, only Moulin Rouge earned more than that in total domestically (and only by a small margin, with $57 million). It's also Leonardo DiCaprio's second-best weekend, behind Inception. In short, it's a great weekend for a movie that looked like a tough sell.
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May 9th, 2013
Summer got off to a fantastic start last weekend, but sadly it is not going to continue this weekend. Neither The Great Gatsby nor Peeples have blockbuster potential. In fact, the pair combined won't match Iron Man 3's sophomore stint. This is similar to what happened last year, as Dark Shadows got crushed by The Avengers, which broke yet another record. Iron Man 3 won't be able to do the same this year, but we could have better depth. I'm not saying 2013 will win the weekend, but it won't as bad as it has been either.
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May 3rd, 2013
There are a couple of films opening wide next weekend, The Great Gatsby and Peeples; however, nearly everyone assumes The Great Gatsby will be the bigger of the two films. (It will likely be crushed by Iron Man 3.) It is the clear choice for the target movie for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Great Gatsby.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Star Trek: The Next Generation: Season Three on Blu-ray.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a copy of Star Trek: The Next Generation: The Best of Both Worlds on Blu-ray.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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May 1st, 2013
As April ends and summer begins, we see the 2013 box office on a losing streak. There is some good news, as May should be much, much, much better than April was. Much better. During the five weekends in May, there are nine films opening wide. Of those film, there are seven that at least have a shot at $100 million. And of those seven films, four at least have a shot at $200 million, two have a shot at $300 million, and we might even have a $400 million hit this month. Iron Man 3 should turn out to be the biggest hit of the month, while there are some who think Star Trek: Into Darkness could be a close competitor for that honor. There's also some bad news. The Avengers opened last May and earned more than $600 million. No film opening this month will come close to that figure. There's a chance the top two films opening this month won't match that combined. On the other hand, last year there was a huge drop-off from the biggest hit of the month to the second biggest hit of the month. There were so many high-profile failures last year, that 2013 might actually start winning some weekends in the year-over-year comparison.
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