March 6th, 2017
There are not a lot of releases on this week’s list for two major reasons. Firstly, it is a very, very shallow week. Secondly... Dental Surgery. By the time you read this, I might still be at the dentist. There are only two contenders for Pick of the Week, Jackie on Blu-ray and Moana on Blu-ray Combo Pack. It wasn’t particularly close and Moana is easily the Pick of the Week.
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February 21st, 2017
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Did you know Oscars are being handed out next week? If you didn’t already know that, you would be able to figure that out, as there are five major Oscar nominees on this week’s list. Two of those, Jackie and Moana, are VOD releases, so that limits the choices for Pick of the Week. In fact, only Manchester by the Sea was a contender for Pick of the Week. Unfortunately for that film, I got to the review for Doctor Strange a week early and I’m awarding it the Pick of the Week this week. It is out on VOD right now, but I would wait a week for the Blu-ray Combo Pack.
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December 13th, 2016
As predicted, Moana was able to grab first place on the weekend box office chart. On the downside, it slipped a little faster than expected. Additionally, Office Christmas Party missed expectations and this led to the overall box office falling 13% from last weekend to $83 million. That said, this is still 7.0% higher than the same weekend last year and that’s more important. Year-to-date, 2016 maintained its $460 million / 4.7% lead over 2015 at $10.23 billion to $9.77 billion. This lead will take a serious hit this coming weekend when Rogue One goes against The Force Awakens. That said, unless Rogue One opens with less than $100 million during its weekend, 2016 should still come out ahead at the end of the year.
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December 6th, 2016
The winners of our Secret Prizes contest contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Incarnate opening weekend were...
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December 6th, 2016
As expected, Moana dominated the weekend box office chart with a $10 million lead over its nearest competitor earning $28.27 million. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them also did well with $18.12 million. Unfortunately, those were the only two films to earn more than $10 million over the weekend and this left the overall box office down a massive 48% from last weekend to just $95 million. Worse still, this is 2.8% lower than the same weekend last year. I’m actually surprised it’s that close, because there were four films that earned more than $10 million last year, including the biggest new release, Krampus. 2016 was able to crack $10 billion before the weekend and has a very substantial lead at $10.12 billion to $9.66 billion for 2015.
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December 4th, 2016
The top of the box office chart remains a tale of two movies this weekend, with Moana maintaining an impressive lead over Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, but both movies doing very nicely heading into the Christmas season. Moana tops the chart again this weekend with $28.4 million, for a total of $119.9 million at the end of the weekend. By way of comparison, Frozen had earned $134.3 million at this point in its run, but fell a slightly larger 53% from Thanksgiving, compared to Moana’s 50% decline. The next few weeks should be very lucrative for the animated adventure, which is likely to sail past $300 million at the domestic box office.
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December 3rd, 2016
As expected, Moana led the way at the box office on Friday. It did so thanks to a $6.45 million haul. This is just 4.2% lower than Frozen managed during the same period in its run. If Moana has the same internal multiplier over the weekend, then it will earn just over $30 million. That would be amazing. That would be $6 million better than expected. I think it is going to have trouble keeping up that pace, but a sub-50% drop-off to $29 million is still impressive, especially for this time of year. The film has $97.96 million as of Friday and by the time you read this, it may have already crossed $100 million on Saturday. If it continues to show legs like this, then the film will still be in wide release on Christmas Day, which will be a boon to its box office numbers.
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December 2nd, 2016
The numbers for Incarnate finally showed up and I can see why they were not in a rush to publish them. The film pulled in just $120,000 during midnight shows yesterday. That’s not the worst we’ve seen for a semi-wide or wider release, but it is close. In fact, it is so low that it is hard to find a good comparison. The three recent horror / thrillers we used as comparisons didn’t have previews or didn’t release preview box office numbers. Nearly ever horror / thriller released this summer was a hit, except The Darkness. That film earned $206,000 during its previews on its way to a $4.95 million opening weekend. If the two films had the same legs, then Incarnate will pull in $3 million this weekend. I think that’s on the high end of its box office potential.
Our original story can be read below.
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December 1st, 2016
December usually starts on a really soft note, because the weekend after Thanksgiving is usually a terrible weekend. This time around, the wide release of the week is Incarnate, which is opening in 1,737 theaters and is expected to struggle to reach the top ten. That leaves Moana with an easy route to first place. This weekend last year, Krampus opened in second place with $16.29 million. Incarnate will only earn a fraction of that. On the other hand, the number one film was The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2, which earned $18.86 million during the weekend and Moana should easily beat that. I don’t think 2016 will come out ahead, but it also shouldn’t be a disaster either.
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December 1st, 2016
November was good, but not great. Fortunately, 2016 had a large enough lead going into November that the month only needed to be good. In fact, it could have been mediocre and 2016 would have still had an excellent shot to end the year above 2015. As for December, it’s a race between Star Wars and Star Wars. Almost no one thinks Rogue One is going to match The Force Awakens, but if Rogue One earns just half of what The Force Awakens managed, then 2016 will come out on top in the year-over-year comparison. There are only two other films with a better than 50/50 chance of hitting $100 million, Passengers and Sing. Either one could earn second place for the month, but Passengers will likely start faster. Last December, the only other film to earn more than $100 million was Daddy’s Home, which earned just a hair over $150 million. There’s a chance both Passengers and Sing will earn more than $150 million, which would be a boon to the box office. However, Star Wars: The Force Awakens was just too strong last year and it would take a miracle for 2016 to have a stronger December. That said, it would take a complete collapse for 2016 not to top 2015 in raw dollars. The growth might not be enough to keep pace with ticket price inflation, on the other hand.
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November 29th, 2016
The winners of our Say Thanks contest contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Moana opening weekend were...
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November 26th, 2016
Next week is the weekend after Thanksgiving, which is one of two weekends that are historically the worst weekends of the year. (The other is the weekend after Labor Day.) Often times, there are no wide releases to talk about this week and that appears to be the case this year, as Incarnate is reportedly only opening in 1,500 theaters. It has not been a good year for releases like this, so I suspect the winning prediction will be on the low side. However, it is the only film with a shot at the top ten, so it is the only serious choice for the target film in this week’s Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Incarnate.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of The Secret Life of Pets on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of The Secret Life of Pets on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will the final copy of The Secret Life of Pets on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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