December 14th, 2015
It is a strange week on the home market, as there are four first-run releases coming out, all of which were sequels. That's a lot. However, only one of them wasn't a box office disappointment, Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation. Additionally, there's very little depth here. On the plus side, it did give me an excuse to talk about some good releases that might otherwise have fallen between the cracks, like the Top Spin DVD. That said, the Rogue Nation Blu-ray Combo Pack is the Pick of the Week.
More...
December 9th, 2015
-1-News.jpg)
The Screen Actors Guild nominations were announced today and there are at least a few surprises to talk about. Trumbo led the way with three nominations, but there were six films with two nods apiece. Six!
More...
September 23rd, 2015
The Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials rose to first place with $43.3 million in 67 markets over the weekend for a total of $78.0 million internationally and $108.3 million worldwide. The film's biggest opening came from South Korea, but it only managed second place there with $5.66 million on 804 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $7.20 million. On the other hand, the film dominated the Russian box office with $4.19 million on 2,328 screens. The original movie opened stronger in Russia, but The Scorch Trials performed better in its opening in South Korea. Given these results, it is still too soon to tell how well this film will do compared to its predecessor. That said, it already has more worldwide than it cost to make. In fact, it almost has enough worldwide to pay for its entire production budget. Its advertising budget would have to be much larger than expected for it to not break even sooner rather than later.
More...
September 17th, 2015
Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation rocketed up the chart into first place with $91.3 million in 63 markets over the weekend... sort of. This includes $86.42 million during the film's six-day opening in China. Its three-day weekend number is a lot smaller than that, but still enough for first place. Overall, the film now has $424.8 million internationally and $612.9 million worldwide. It became only the second film in the franchise to reach the $600 million mark worldwide. This is more than enough to break even, so it should come as no surprise that there's another installment in the works.
More...
September 15th, 2015
-2-News.jpg)
Both of the two true wide releases had amazing openings this past week. Or to be more specific, amazing openings for a September release. The Perfect Guy did earn first place, but by less than half a million dollars over The Visit. Both films opened substantially above expectations. Thanks to this, the overall box office rose significantly, both compared to last week and compared to last year. The total box office was $102 million, which is 13% higher than last week. It is also 13% higher than the same weekend last year. September is already looking really good. Year-to-date, 2015 has pulled in $7.65 million putting it 5.3% ahead of last year's pace of $7.26 million. 2015 is nearly $400 million head of 2014's pace and there's not a lot of time for 2015 to blow that lead. It wouldn't be impossible, but it is getting more and more unlikely.
More...
September 10th, 2015
Terminator: Genisys remained in first place on the international chart, but with only $11.5 million in 8 markets. This lifted its international total to $346.3 million, while it now has $435.9 million worldwide. This helped the film become the second biggest hit in the franchise, assuming you don't take inflation into account. In China, the film managed $26.67 million, but that was for the full week, giving the film a total of $111.92 million after 15 days of release.
More...
September 9th, 2015
While first trying to come up with picture / title ideas for the weekend columns, I saw the image above and was reminded of "Simply Irresistible" by Robert Palmer. Ever since then, the song has been stuck in my head. It's been there for more than 48 hours now and I'm starting to think I will need medical help getting rid of it. The overall box office was more or less in line with Friday's expectations. A Walk in the Woods matched predictions (nearly) perfectly, while The Transporter Refueled was on the low end of expectations. Fortunately, War Room showed off strong legs leaping into first place. It was able to help the overall box office grow 3.5% to $90 million over the three-day weekend. This was 38% higher than the same weekend last year; however, this is due to a misalignment of holidays. Compared to last labor day, the box office was 18% lower. With that, the summer of 2015 is officially over and while records were broken, the overall box office was actually the second best on record, falling just short of 2013 at $4.48 billion to $4.75 billion. Year-to-date, 2015 has a 5.3% lead over 2014 at $7.53 billion to $7.15 billion.
More...
September 4th, 2015
It's Labor Day long weekend, the weakest long weekend of the year. There are two films looking to grab spots in the top five, The Transporter Refueled and A Walk in the Woods. They will have to contend with Straight Outta Compton, but more importantly, they will have to compete with last chance outdoor activities. This weekend last year, the best new release was The Identical, which is one of the biggest bombs of all time. We won't have a repeat of that this year, so hopefully fall can start on a winning note.
More...
September 3rd, 2015
Terminator Genisys remained in first place with $23.6 million in 26 markets over the weekend for totals of $320.1 million internationally and $409.5 million worldwide. In China, the film pulled in $23.4 million over the weekend for an eight-day total of $85.15 million in that market. It is going to hit the century mark in that market, while its overall worldwide number is high enough to break even.
More...
August 31st, 2015
August is over and the number one film over the full month remained in first place for the third weekend in a row. Only one of the three new releases did well, War Room, as it topped the high end of exceptions. The other two wide releases bombed, in the case of No Escape, and bombed hard, in the case of We Are Your Friends. The overall box office plummeted 17% to just $88 million over the weekend. That's so low that I double-checked the numbers. Granted, there are likely a few limited releases that we don't have weekend numbers for yet, so this number isn't final. However, even the final number won't be that much higher than this, certainly not high enough to make a real difference. This was also 21% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2015 is still ahead of 2014 by nearly $400 million at $7.39 billion to 7.00 billion, so this slump isn't terrible news. However, I would really like it to end sooner rather than later.
More...
August 27th, 2015
It's the last weekend of August and there are three films being dumped into theaters this week. None are expected to earn even $10 million, but there might be a bit of a race to see which of these movies will be the best of the bad group. No Escape already opened on Wednesday, but it didn't have a great start, despite playing in just over 3,000 theaters. We Are Your Friends opens on Friday in about 2,300 theaters, but it has a shot at second place. The final wide release is War Room, which is debuting in just over 1,000 theaters. However, it is a faith-based film, so it could be a surprise hit earning close to $10 million, or it might miss the Mendoza Line. Unless one or more of these films completely blows away analysts, Straight Outta Compton will remain in first place for the third weekend in a row. This weekend last year, there were two wide releases and a limited release that nearly made the top ten. That's very similar to what it is this weekend. I think it will be relatively close, but 2015 will likely fall just shy of 2014 in the year-over-year comparison.
More...
August 27th, 2015
Terminator Genisys earned $26.97 million on Sunday in China. That was enough for first place in that market over the entire weekend. In fact, that was enough for first place internationally. Adding in one holdover market, and the movie made $27.4 million in 2 markets for totals of $264.0 million internationally and $353.1 million worldwide. One final note, China is already the film's biggest single market and it could save the franchise and make another installment likely.
More...
August 25th, 2015
It was an ugly weekend, for the most part. Straight Outta Compton fell about as fast as expected, but that was more than enough to dominate the new releases and push it past an important milestone. On the other hand, the biggest new release, Sinister 2, only managed third place, while the less said about Hitman: Agent 47 and American Ultra, the better. Overall, the box office fell 27% to $107 million. Like I said on Friday, summer is most definitely over. Worse still, this figure is 7.3% lower than the same weekend last year. Had all three new releases matched expectations, the box office would have practically matched last year's pace. Year-to-date, 2015 has pulled in $7.26 billion, which is 5.3% head of 2014's running tally of $6.90 billion.
More...
August 23rd, 2015
As expected, Straight Outta Compton is continuing to dominate at the box office this weekend, with a second weekend of $26.76 million and a total of $111.5 million projected by Universal on Sunday morning. In fact, Compton is so dominant that the music biopic will earn more than the combined grosses of all three debutants. Mission: Impossible—Rogue Nation’s fourth-weekend $11.7 million will be enough for second place.
More...
August 21st, 2015
After last week's reprieve, summer truly ends this week. There are three wide releases coming out, none of which are expected to become even midlevel hits. Also, none of them are earning overall positive reviews. The biggest movie is Sinister 2, which is expected to do well enough to earn a profit, mostly thanks to its very low production budget. American Ultra is the best in terms of Tomatometer Score—by a huge margin. However, it is still earning less than 50% positive reviews by a large margin. The biggest movie in terms of production budget is Hitman: Agent 47, which is bad news for the studio, because it is not expected to do well. In fact, there's almost no chance any of the three new releases will top Straight Outta Compton this weekend. There's a small chance that their combined openings won't top Straight Outta Compton. There is some good news. This weekend last year, there were no movies that earned more than $20 million, which is the absolute low end of Straight Outta Compton's range. On the other hand, If I Stay was the best new release with $15.68 million. That's more than any of the wide releases this year will earn and it only managed third place last year. I think 2015 will win with ease at the top of the chart, but 2014 might have better depth, keeping it ahead in the year-over-year comparison.
More...
August 20th, 2015
Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation remained in first place for the third weekend in a row with $46.1 million in 63 markets over the weekend for totals of $235.3 million internationally and $373.6 million worldwide. The film's biggest opening was in France where it easily earned first place with $7.96 million on 719 screens. It also earned first place with $2.99 million on 947 screens in Brazil. The film isn't quite done its international run. It opens in Italy this weekend and China next month. It should have no trouble getting to $300 million internationally and could get all the way to $500 million worldwide. China could be a huge market for the movie.
More...
August 18th, 2015
Straight Outta Compton destroyed expectations earning even more than the outlier prediction I saw. Sadly, our predictions for The Man From U.N.C.L.E. turned out to be too optimistic, but overall the box office was still very strong. In fact, it grew 12% from last week to $148 million. Growth like that almost never happens at this time of year. Compared to last year, the box office was also strong, albeit by a smaller 3.7% margin. That said, a win is a win and worth celebrating, especially after a couple of strong declines. Year-to-date, 2015 maintains a strong lead over 2014 at $7.09 billion to $6.73 billion. A 5.4% lead year-over-year is a great margin for this time of year and it would take a really serious collapse to put that lead at risk. I don't think that's going to happen. In fact, there are three potential $1 billion hits yet to open in theaters, which is actually better than it was last year. Add in the number of potential $100 million hits and the lead could grow through till the end of the year.
More...
August 15th, 2015
Friday’s estimates are in and, not to put too fine a point on it, Straight Outta Compton destroyed predictions. In my defense, with Fantastic Four bombing, it looked like summer was over. It is very rare for the box office to rebound this time of year, but that’s exactly what happened. Straight Outta Compton earned $24.2 million on Friday night. Not only is this the biggest opening day for a musical biopic, it tops the previous record-holder’s opening weekend. (Walk the Line earned $22.35 million during its opening weekend back in 2005.) Since the film has broken records, it is a little hard to predict where it will be by the end of the weekend. The big opening day could mean a huge opening weekend. Or it could be the result of an extreme Fanboy Effect. Worst case scenario has the film making less over the rest of the weekend than it did during its opening day. This isn’t common, but it has happened before. That would still result in a $48 million opening weekend. On the higher end, its reviews could translate into long legs and an opening weekend of more than $65 million. If the weekend is below $55 million, then the Fanboy effect was bigger than its reviews. Anything above $60 million and the reverse is true. I'm going to go with $53 million, but as I said, this is a record-breaking opening day, so we are in untested territory.
More...
August 14th, 2015
It appears summer is over, but a strong showing from Straight Outta Compton and The Man From U.N.C.L.E. could mitigate that decline. Both are earning good reviews, which is unusual for this time of year. On the other hand, it is late in August, so neither are expected to be monster hits. Straight Outta Compton has a chance to turn its amazing reviews into long legs, so it could be a surprise $100 million hit. Even so, it won't open explosively. This weekend last year, the best new release was Let's Be Cops, which only managed $17.81 million. I think both new releases will top that by a serious margin. However, the best results from this weekend last year were Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and Guardians of the Galaxy. I think 2014 has an advantage over 2015 in the year-over-year comparison, but I think things will be closer than they were the past two weeks.
More...
August 13th, 2015
Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation expanded over the weekend and saw its weekend haul grow, but by a tiny amount. It pulled in $65.5 million in 59 markets over the weekend for totals of $156.7 million internationally and $264.5 million worldwide. The film earned first place in a trio of major markets, led by Russia where it made $4.07 million on 1,125 screens. It also debuted in Germany ($2.84 million on 612) and Spain ($1.73 million on 603). On the other hand, it had to settle for second place in Japan with $4.60 million on 600 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $6.07 million. Jurassic World earned first place in Japan, so that's hardly a poor opening. Its biggest market overall was South Korea, where it made $6.57 million on 818 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $31.99 million. The film is below average for the franchise so far, but that's still enough to break even and justify yet another installment.
More...
August 11th, 2015
-6-News.jpg)
Despite what conventional wisdom was predicting, Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation remained in first place, as Fantastic Four missed even our low expectations. The Gift also did well, but the other two wide releases opened on the low end of expectations. Overall, the box office fell 8.3% from last weekend down to $132 million, so according to that number, it is safe to say summer is fading fast. Worse still, compared to last year, the box office was 29% lower, which is terrible and a clear sign that summer is already over. Granted, 2015 still has a solid lead over 2014, at $6.88 billion to $6.51 billion. A lead of 5.7% at this time of year is great and it would take an epic collapse for that to disappear anytime soon. I don't think 2015 will bounce back and start padding its lead any time soon, but I also don't think it will have 29% deficits week after week either.
More...
August 9th, 2015
-3-News.jpg)
The Summer Season has come to an abrupt end this weekend, with Fantastic Four busting out with only $26.2 million, according to Fox’s Sunday morning estimate. That’s about half of what one would expect for a superhero movie in this budget range, even taking into account the fact that it’s the first in a potential franchise (see here for some comparisons), and a final box office total of less than $80 million seems in prospect, which is nothing short of a disaster: the film is likely not to even cover its marketing budget.
More...
August 8th, 2015
-2-News.jpg)
I was significantly less optimistic than most box office analysts were when it came to the weekend predictions. While most predicted Fantastic Four would earn just over $40 million over the weekend, I assumed the film will struggle so much that it was just a matter of time before it was given back to Marvel Studios. Despite my pessimism, I appear to have been too optimistic.
More...
August 7th, 2015
-1-News.jpg)
There could be a close race on top of the box office chart with Fantastic Four trying to unseat Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation as box office champion. This should be the number one story of the weekend; however, if I'm right and Fantastic Four does as poorly as I think it will, then the franchise will be in the hands of Marvel Studios by the end of the weekend. None of the other three wide releases are guaranteed to top $10 million over the weekend. In fact, it is very likely that one of them, Shaun of the Sheep, will miss the top five. This weekend last year was led by Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles with $65.58 million. Guardians of the Galaxy was second with $42.12 million. I don't think any film opening this weekend will match Guardians of the Galaxy, while there's a chance all four combined won't match TMNT. 2015 is going to take a beating on the year-over-year comparison.
More...
August 6th, 2015
Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation opened in first place on the international chart with $64.5 million in 41 markets. Its biggest opening by far came in South Korea, where it made $13.80 million on 1,202 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $16.90 million. That total opening was more than twice the film's second biggest opening, $8.31 million in 572 theaters in the U.K. The film also had major market openings in Mexico ($4.17 million) and in Australia ($3.68 million). The film has yet to open in most major markets, including Germany, Russia, Spain, and Japan. The film opens in all four this weekend, so it should strong on the international chart.
More...
August 6th, 2015
The winners of our Mission: Possible contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation opening weekend were...
More...
August 4th, 2015
The End of the Tour is the latest success for A24, as it topped the per theater chart with an average of $30,810 in four theaters. Up next were a pair of documentaries, Best of Enemies and Listen to Me Marlon, with averages of $16,913 and $15,034 respectively. The overall number one film was next, as Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation earned an average of $14,034. The final film in the $10,000 club was Phoenix. Its theater count doubled, but its per theater average dropped just 20% to $12,004. That's amazing and it could be an omen that it will expand wide enough to earn some measure of mainstream success.
More...
August 4th, 2015
Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation matched expectations close enough to call it a victory. Meanwhile, Vacation came within 10% of Friday's predictions, but unfortunately, we weren't predicting box office success, so that's not a good thing. With the holdovers slumping as summer ends, the overall box office dipped 3.2% from last weekend. That's not the problem. The problem is the 21% drop-off from the same weekend last year. Granted, Guardians of the Galaxy broke records when it opened this weekend last year, but a 21% drop-off is still troublesome. 2015 still leads 2014 by a substantial margin at $6.67 billion to $6.25 billion, so unless 2015 really crashes, it will still have a lead going into the winter holidays.
More...
August 2nd, 2015
Mission: Impossible—Rogue Nation will comfortably win the weekend at the box office, with Paramount projecting a total of $56 million on Sunday morning. That’s a very respectable performance by any measure, although it falls short of the franchise record, which was set by Mission: Impossible 2 15 years ago. It’s early days yet, but the prospects of another franchise chapter making around $200 million seem good, based on the excellent reviews this outing has been receiving. Overseas business is reportedly very good so far, although we don’t yet have any official figures.
More...
August 1st, 2015
Mission: Impossible—Rogue Nation earned about $20.3 million at the box office on Friday, including $4 million on Thursday evening, according to Paramount’s Saturday morning estimate. That puts it on track for a $50 million opening weekend, which is decent money by any measure, but isn’t enough to put it in the top ten weekends of 2015, and might not even top The SpongeBob Movie to become the studio’s best opener of the year. Does that count as a disappointing start? Maybe…
More...
July 30th, 2015
Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation shouldn't have any trouble earning first place over the weekend. In fact, it should make more than the rest of the top five combined. On the downside, its real competition isn't the other films in theaters, but Guardians of the Galaxy, which set the August weekend box office record when it opened this weekend last year. Rogue Nation could have a record-opening for the franchise and still not come close to Guardians of the Galaxy. The only other new wide release of the week is Vacation, which started on Wednesday. Its reviews are terrible and its box office chances are not much better. Since nothing will top Guardians of the Galaxy's record-breaking opening, it seems 2015 will end the month on a losing note. Hopefully this is just a momentary hiccup and not an omen for how the rest of the summer will go.
More...
July 29th, 2015
The winners of our Pixel Perfectcontest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Pixels opening weekend were...
More...
July 24th, 2015
Next weekend, there are are two wide releases, one of which, Vacation, is opening on Wednesday, which normally disqualifies it as a choice for target film. The other, Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation, should dominate the box office. As a result, it is the only real choice target film for this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Yu-Gi-Oh Gx: Season 2 on DVD.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a copy of Tooken on The Encore of Tony Duran on .
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
More...
July 1st, 2015
June was a much better month than expected due to two films, Jurassic World and Inside Out. Had those two films merely matched expectations, then 2015 would have likely fallen behind 2014. As for this coming month, there are five weekends in July and each week there is at least one film with the potential to reach $100 million. Most weeks there are two films that at least have a shot at getting to the century mark. The biggest hit of the month will likely be Minions, which has already opened in several international markets and it's ahead of Despicable Me 2 at the same point. That film made more than $300 million and nearly $1 billion worldwide, so any growth would be fantastic. There are also a number of potential $200 million films, led by Ant-man. Ant-man is the latest release in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, a franchise that has averaged $300 million domestically over eleven films and all of the past six films have reached at least $200 million. I'm not saying this one is guaranteed to do the same, but you can't dismiss that possibility. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation and Pixels have smaller chances to get to $200 million, but you have to at least entertain the possibility. Additionally, last July was a lot weaker than this July looks to be, so 2015 should win in the year-over-year comparison most weeks. Or I might have let the box office success of June cloud my judgment. We will soon find out.
More...
