November 13th, 2012
New releases this week are dominated by one title, Brave. The second best selling title according to Amazon.com is Lawrence of Arabia, which is a film that should be in everyone's collection, but as a catalog title, it likely won't sell a huge number of units. The third best selling title according to Amazon.com is Duck Dynasty: Season One. That's not a good sign. Fortunately, Brave is clearly Pick of the Week material with the Blu-ray Combo Pack or 3D Combo Pack battling for that honor.
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August 30th, 2012
It's the Labor Day long weekend, a weekend that a lot of families like to spend outdoors, or on a last minute vacation before school starts. It is generally a bad time to release a film, but three films hope to outperform the historical averages for the weekend. I don't think it will work. The Possession could win the weekend, but Lawless also has a shot. The other wide release, The Oogieloves in the BIG Balloon Adventure, doesn’t have a shot at top spot. It doesn't have a shot at the top ten. It does have a shot at breaking records, on the other hand. As for the holdovers, The Expendables has a shot at the threepeat, but that would be really bad news for the overall box office. Speaking of which, last year, none of the new wide releases were able to crack $10 million, which left The Help in first place. I don't think any film this year will top that film's weekend haul, but overall the depth is better this year and perhaps we can eke out a win in the year-over-year comparison.
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August 23rd, 2012
Last weekend there were seven films to earning more than $10 million. This weekend, it looks like none of the new releases will reach that mark, while there's a slim chance none of the holdovers will stay above that level either. Granted, it would take an epic collapse by The Expendables 2 to fail to top $10 million, but it is possible. Of the new releases, Premium Rush is the only one with a shot at $10 million. It has good reviews, but they probably won't be enough. I thought Hit and Run would be a disaster with critics, but its reviews are actually above 50% positive. On the other hand, its Wednesday opening was a disaster. Finally there's The Apparition. It is opening in less than 1000 theaters and was not screened for critics. Enough said. Last year was also terrible, so there a chance 2012 will squeak out a win.
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August 20th, 2012
Apparently summer ended over the weekend. It didn't go out with a thud, but more just faded away. The Expendables 2 was able to earn first place, but missed even the low end of expectations. In fact, the only new release to not struggle as much as analysts were expecting was Sparkle, and even that film missed expectations, it just did so by a tiny margin. There is some good news. There was a lot of depth with seven films earning more than $10 million over the weekend and overall the box office only slipped 2.3% from last weekend hitting $139 million. This was actually 12% higher than the same weekend last year. Analysts were obviously hoping for something more, but at this point, a win is a win. Year-to-date, 2012 is still ahead of 2011, but that lead has shrunk to 3.3% at $7.22 billion to $6.99 billion. Attendance is only up by 2.1%, so if the rest of August and September don't pull their weight, we might see 2012 lose that lead entirely.
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August 13th, 2012
The Bourne Legacy was easily able to win the weekend box office race, finishing within $1 million of predictions. In fact, most of the top five finished within roughly $1 million of predictions. This helped the overall box office climb 16% from last weekend. However, the overall box office was still weak when compared to last year down 8.4%. 2012's lead over 2011 shrank to just 3.5% at $7.01 billion to $6.78 billion and if we don't turn things around soon, we might see 2012 relinquish the lead before the winter holiday season begins.
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August 9th, 2012
The Bourne Legacy should have no trouble dominating the box office this weekend and it might become the last $100 million hit of the summer. On the other hand, it might not be the only $100 million hit opening this week. The Campaign is an R-rated comedy, which should do better than most and at least has an outside shot at reaching the century club. Hope Springs is counter-programming aimed at a more mature target demographic and its chances over the weekend are not great, but its legs could be strong. Finally, there's Nitro Circus: The Movie 3D, which is only playing in about 800 theaters, but it could squeeze into the top ten. This week last year the new releases were led by The Help while a returning film, Rise of the Planet of the Apes, topped the chart. Neither film made $30 million over the weekend, which is something The Bourne Legacy should do with ease, so 2012 should pull out a win. Hopefully that is the case, because year-over-year, 2012 has been losing big time lately.
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August 1st, 2012
July was another bad month with five of the seven films missing expectations. Only one matched expectations, or came close enough to call it a victory, while another film is too close to call. 2012 is still ahead of 2011, but that margin did shrink last month, despite the performance of The Dark Knight Rises, which earned $300 million during the month. Looking ahead to August, there are fourteen films opening wide, maybe fifteen, making it the busiest month in a long time. Of those releases, five or six have a shot at $100 million, while none will get much beyond that point. Maybe The Bourne Legacy will be a surprise hit and match the average of its predecessors, but most analysts wouldn't be willing to bet money on that. By comparison, last August only had two films that topped $100 million, Rise of the Planet of the Apes and The Help. I don't think any film opening this August will match those two films, but we have much better depth this time around. Hopefully we will be able to extend our lead this month, unlike the last two months.
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