Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

2017 Awards Season: DGA Nominations

January 11th, 2018

Directors Guild of America is one of those awards groups that spread out their nominations, but the last of them were announced today. There are some pleasant surprises and what is possibly the biggest shock of Awards Season so far. The only film to earn two nominations was Get Out. More...

2017 - Holiday Gift Guide - Part III - Limited Releases, Classics, Foreign Imports

December 16th, 2017

Both the first installment First-run Releases and the second installment, TV on DVD releases, were shorter than I would have liked, as this hasn’t been a great year for either wide releases or TV on DVD releases. That said, the third installment of our Holiday Gift Guide deals with limited releases, classics, and foreign imports and this list can get out of hand rather quickly. There will more releases on this list than the previous two, starting with... More...

Home Market Releases for November 14th, 2017

November 13th, 2017

It’s a bad week for screeners, as the screeners for both Atomic Blonde and Wind River are late. Both look like they are worth picking up, but not quite Pick of the Week material. There are a trio of contenders for this award: In This Corner of the World, Kedi, and Whose Streets? It was a close call, but in the end, Kedi came out on top. More...

Home Market Releases for October 31st, 2017

October 31st, 2017

It’s Halloween, so most people are concerned with how much Halloween candy they can eat before there’s not enough for trick or treaters, so they are not paying attention to new home market releases. At least I assume that’s why there are so few top-notch releases on this week’s list. The Dark Tower is the biggest release of the week, but it is not worth renting, and it is certainly not a Pick of the Week contender. So what is the Pick of the Week? There’s not a lot of competition, but I think any film history bull will love Dawson City: Frozen Time on DVD or Blu-ray. More...

Theater Averages: Victoria and Abdul win by Royal Decree with $39,711

September 27th, 2017

Victoria and Abdul earned first place on the theater average chart with an average of $39,711 in four theaters. This is an excellent start and the movie has a lot of room to grow. Battle of the Sexes was playing in 21 theaters and earned an average of $24,545. It too has room to expand. It might even expand enough to get some Awards Season buzz. Unrest just managed a spot in the $10,000 club with $10,607 in one theater. That’s great for a documentary. More...

Theater Averages: Brad Challenge’s the Status Quo with $22,480

September 20th, 2017

Brad’s Status led the way on the theater average chart with an average of $22,480 in four theaters. It was the only holdover in the $10,000 club earning an average of $14,490. The only other member of the $10,000 was Ex Libris: The New York Public Library, which earned $10,926 in one theater over the weekend and $16,308 from Wednesday through Sunday. It won’t expand significantly, because it is a documentary, but the distributor should be very happy with this result. More...

Theater Averages: Box Office Has All It can Handle with $30,076

September 13th, 2017

It was the only film to earn more than $10,000 on the theater average chart this past weekend. It dominated the competition with an average of $30,076, which is the third best average for a wide release this year, behind Beauty and the Beast ($41,508) and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 ($33,704). The only limited release that came close to the $10,000 mark was Rebel in the Rye, which earned an average of $9,492 in four theaters. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: It Jump Starts Box Office with $123 million

September 11th, 2017

Historically, the weekend after the Labor Day long weekend is one of the worst weekends of the year. That is not the case this year. In fact, this year, this weekend was historic in a much more positive sense of the word. It broke tons of records, some of which were more esoteric. It demolished the records for biggest September weekend box office, biggest horror weekend, Biggest R-rated day, biggest opening weekend for a Stephen King, etc. All of this led to the weekend box office more than doubling last weekend’s total earning $163 million. This is also 62% higher than the same weekend last year. A change this severe usually only happens when there is a misalignment in holidays. I’ve been saying that a lot over the past few weeks; however, this has been due to a massive decline, so it is nice to be unabashedly positive for once. Year-to-date, 2017 is still well behind 2016 at $7.63 billion to $8.08 billion. 2017 did close the gap and it is now 5.6% or $450 million behind last year’s pace. If the movie industry can close the gap by this much each week, then it will take till Halloween before it has caught up in terms of dollars and would take until nearly Christmas to catch up in terms of ticket sales. More...

Weekend Predictions: Does It Have What it Takes to Rescue the Box Office?

September 7th, 2017

The weekend after the Labor Day long weekend is usually one of the worst weekends of the year. However, that’s not the case this year. In fact, this could be the best weekend in about two months. It is widely expected to dominate the box office. In fact, there are some who think it will earn much more than the rest of the box office combined. That would be great news for the overall box office numbers. On the other hand, Home Again is only expected to earn around $10 million; however, it reportedly only cost $15 million to make, so that’s not a bad opening. This weekend last year, the biggest new release was Sully with just over $35 million, while When the Bough Breaks did okay in a counter-programming role pulling in $14 million. Overall, the box office earned $101 million and if It lives up to the hype, it will help 2017 win in the year-over-year competition by a significant degree. More...

Theater Averages: Dolores Dunks on the Competition with $13,534

September 6th, 2017

Labor Day long weekend wasn’t nearly as bad we were expecting, but it still wasn’t what you could call good. There were two films to earn more than $10,000 on the theater average chart, which is better than we’ve seen some weeks this year; however, those were the only two new releases to come close to $10,000. Dolores opened in one theater earning $13,534 and this is amazing for a documentary. Viceroy’s House earned an average of $12,034 in four theaters. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Labor Day Bounce Helps Bodyguard Pull In $10.54 million

September 6th, 2017

The last weekend of the summer had no new wide releases, so it made sense that the box office would drop even further. However, that was not the case. I think the combination of the last long weekend of the summer and terrible recent box office results led a lot of people to go to the movies one last time before school starts. After all, it is likely most moviegoers haven’t seen a movie in theaters for several weeks. The Hitman’s Bodyguard easily led the way with $10.54 million over three days and $13.27 million including Monday. It earned more over three days than any of its competitors earned over four. Overall, the box office rose 9.8% from last weekend to $76 million. Sadly, this is still 24% lower than the same weekend last year, but it could have been worse. Year-to-date, 2017 has pulled in $7.45 billion, which puts it 6.3% or $500 million behind last year’s pace. More...

Weekend Estimates: Labor Day Weekend Looking Better Than Expected

September 3rd, 2017

This weekend is somewhat uncharted territory for the movie industry, with no new releases rolling out in over 1,000 theaters and no dominant film already playing. Fortunately, the result is looking like a glass that is at least half full. Thanks in part to the holiday weekend, and the start of recovery from Hurricane Harvey, several returning films improved their box office from last weekend, and the number one film, The Hitman’s Bodyguard, will remain flat from its last outing, with $10.25 million expected by Lionsgate, and a total around $55 million by the end of the day on Sunday. More...

Friday Estimates: Hitman Guards the Box Office with $2.43 million

September 2nd, 2017

Expectations for this weekend were really low. They were so low that when I saw The Hitman’s Bodyguard had earned $2.43 million on Friday, I was pleasantly surprised. That’s only 20% lower than last Friday and the holiday should boost its three-day legs, helping it earn just over $9 million. It’s on pace for $12 million over four days for a running tally of over $55 million. That’s enough for Lionsgate’s share to cover its entire $30 million production budget. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Hitman Assassinate the Box Office?

August 31st, 2017

Not only will this weekend likely be the worst weekend of the year, there’s a very high likelihood it will be the worst weekend in over a decade. It arguably could be the worst weekend of all time. There are no wide releases, or even semi-wide releases. The widest “new” release of the week is the 40th Anniversary re-release for Close Encounters of the Third Kind, but last week’s 3D re-release for Terminator 2: Judgment Day suggests it won't come close to the top ten. Tulip Fever is a long-delayed Weinstein Co. release and just avoiding the Mendoza Line would be a reason to celebrate. Up next in terms of theater counts is Hazlo Como Hombre. It is a Chilean film and films aimed at Hispanics have had success in recent years. They only need to earn just over $2 million during the three-day weekend to reach the top ten, so one of them could get there, but that’s not a sure thing. This leaves The Hitman’s Bodyguard with an easy path to first place. This weekend last year, the biggest new release was The Light Between Oceans, which earned just under $5 million. Sadly, this might be more than all three new releases earn this year. Last year the overall box office finished just under $100 million. More...

Theater Averages: Life’s A Beach

August 30th, 2017

There was only one film to earn more than $10,000 on the theater average chart. Beach Rats earned an average of $15,484 in three theaters, putting it heads and shoulders above the rest of the new releases. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Hitman Guards the Top of the Chart with $10.26 million

August 29th, 2017

Amazingly, the weekend box office was actually worse than expected, as every new release we talked about in our predictions missed the Mendoza Line*. This left The Hitman’s Bodyguard with an easy first place with $10.26 million during its second weekend of release, just avoiding the bottom ten worst number one films of the 21st century. It could break the record next weekend, as there are no new wide releases looking to take top spot. Overall, the box office plummeted 28% to just $69 million. This is in the bottom ten smallest domestic weekends of the 21st century, 13th worst including the year 2000. (Interestingly, the year 2000 produced 5 of the worst 7 weekends in that time frame and September 2000 alone has 4 of the 5 worst weekends.) Again, since there are no new wide releases next weekend, we could see this record fall. The $69 million weekend total is 41% lower than the same weekend last year, which is a decline you normally only see when there is a misalignment in holidays. Unfortunately, we’ve seen a similar decline several times in recent weeks. Year-to-date, 2017 has pulled in $7.32 billion, which is $490 million or 6.2% less than 2016’s pace. We really need 2017 to put up some wins soon, or we simply won’t be able to turn around the deficit before the end of the year. More...

Weekend Estimates: Industry Suffering Worst Slump in at Least 30 Years

August 27th, 2017

Things are so bad at the box office this weekend that it’s hard to figure out just how bad. We’ve been tracking box office since 1997, and have researched weekend reports back to the beginning of the 1980s, and a diligent search of our database doesn’t offer a weekend that’s clearly been worse than this one. Based on current ticket sales, it’s the 9th-worst in terms of consumer spending since 2000, with $66.6 million reported so far. That number will go up a bit when numbers are announced for all movies on Monday, but most likely only fractionally (I think we have numbers for everything that made over $500,000). But that figure doesn’t account for ticket price inflation. If we do so, things look even more dire… More...

Friday Estimates: Leap! Comes up Lame as Hitman Tops Chart with $3.15 million

August 26th, 2017

As expected, The Hitman’s Bodyguard earned first place on opening Friday, and better than average for the summer. It will likely finish with just under $10 million instead of just over $10 million. This isn’t a major issue for the film, but if it does earn first place with less than $10 million, it will be only the tenth film to do so in the 21st century. Being on this list isn’t necessarily a bad sign for the film and instead is a bad sign for the overall market. For example, Guardians of the Galaxy earned first place during its sixth weekend of release, with just $10.4 million, not because it was struggling, but because the competition was terrible. In this case, The Hitman’s Bodyguard is on pace to become a midlevel hit, while the new releases are all bombs. In fact, the film is on pace to earn enough domestically for Lionsgate’s share to cover its entire production budget and this is reason to celebrate. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Leap! Make the Box Office Jump for Joy?

August 24th, 2017

This will likely be the worst weekend of the year at the box office, at least so far. There’s only one wide release, Leap!, while there are two other films opening “nationwide” that both have a real shot at the top ten, All Saints and Birth of the Dragon. All three films combined might not earn more than $10 million over the weekend. By comparison, this weekend last year, Don’t Breathe opened with $26.41 million. 2017 is going to lose in the year-over-year comparison yet again and we can hardly afford to fall further back. More...

Theater Averages: Gook Does Good with $13,522

August 23rd, 2017

It was a shallow week on the theater average chart with only three films with averages above $10,000 and none that topped that mark by a serious margin. Gook topped the chart with an average of $13,522 in two theaters. Ingrid Goes West is arguably more impressive, as it earned an average of $10,284 in 26 theaters during its second weekend of release. The only other film in the $10,000 club was Crown Heights with an average of $10,058 in three theaters. More...

Weekend Estimates: Hitman’s Bodyguard Tops Chart with Solid $21.6 Million

August 20th, 2017

We’re at that point in the year when we’ll take what we can get at the box office, and The Hitman’s Bodyguard will deliver according to that lowered metric this weekend with about $21.6 million, according to Lionsgate’s Sunday morning projection. That’s in line with to a little ahead of expectations, but a B+ CinemaScore and mediocre reviews suggest it won’t have substantial legs. For Ryan Reynolds, the opening is ahead of this year’s Life, which debuted with $12.5 million, and well clear of 2015’s Self/Less ($5.4 million). Samuel L. Jackson, meanwhile, appears in such a mess of movies it’s hard to say how this compares to any one of them. More...

Theater Averages: Ingrid Westward Trip nets $45,100

August 16th, 2017

Ingrid Goes West opened in first place on the theater average chart with an average of $45,100 in three theaters. This is the third best average of the year behind The Big Sick (average of $84,315 in five) and The Beguiled ($57,323 in four). A24 had another success with Good Time earning an average of $31,275 in four theaters. The Trip to Spain opened with an average of $15,102 in three theaters, which is in the middle of the franchise average so far. Finally there’s Wind River, which was the only holdover in the $10,000 club. It managed an average of $13,615 in 45 theaters and already has nearly $1 million in limited release. More...

Theater Averages: River Runs Away with $40,390

August 9th, 2017

The Weinstein Co. is breathing a huge sign of relief as Wind River had the best theater average of the weekend with $40,390 in four theaters. This is the fourth best average of the year behind The Big Sick (average of $84,315 in five); The Beguiled ($57,323 in four); and Beauty and the Beast ($41,508 in just over 4,200). Wolf Warriors 2 saw its theater average grow to $15,843. The final film in the $10,000 club was Columbus, which earned an average of $13,410 in two theaters. More...

Weekend Estimates: Dark Tower Sneaks Unconvincing Weekend Win

August 6th, 2017

Suddenly, it feels like the end of Summer at the box office. Last weekend’s modest opening for The Emoji Movie made the top end of the chart look weak, and The Dark Tower’s projected $19.5 million debut this weekend has done nothing to fill the void. There are a few films coming out in the next few weeks that could unexpectedly produce robust numbers (The Hitman’s Bodyguard is probably the best bet for a surprise break-out), but there’s nothing on the schedule until Kingsman: The Golden Circle and The Lego Ninjago Movie come out on September 22 that can be relied on to crack $100 million at the domestic box office. More...

Friday Estimates: Dark Tower’s Chances Dim with $7.73 million Opening Day

August 5th, 2017

On the positive side, The Dark Tower topped the chart on Friday. On the negative side, it missed both our original prediction, as well as our lowered expectations with just $7.725 million. The film’s reviews are terrible at 19% positive, while its CinemaScore is a mere B, so that’s bad news for the film’s legs, putting it on pace for between $18 million and $19 million. It’s good news for Dunkirk, which has a real shot at first place on the weekend chart for the third weekend in a row. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: Wind Of Change

August 4th, 2017

It’s not a good week for limited releases. There are too many earning weak reviews or are playing on VOD, both of which will hurt their box office chances. Step could do well for a documentary, while Columbus and Wind River both have a shot at some mainstream success. More...

Wind River Trailer

July 26th, 2017

Thriller starring Jeremy Renner and Elizabeth Olsen, directed by Taylor Sheridan opens August 4 ... Full Movie Details. More...