October 10th, 2017
It’s a good week for the home market with top notch releases in nearly every category. Baby Driver is the biggest first run release of the week and one of the best releases. The Lure is a foreign-language film and one of two Criterion Collection releases in competition for Pick of the Week. Maudie is a Canadian limited release that did surprisingly well in theaters. Finally there’s Othello, which first came out more than 60 years ago. The only thing we are missing is a TV on DVD title. As for the winner, I’m giving Pick of the Week to, Othello, while Maudie wins Puck of the Week for Best Canadian Release.
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October 8th, 2017
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Wish Upon could go down in history as the movie that ended Broad Green Pictures production division. That’s not fair, as the film earned more domestically than it cost to make and only one other film they produced and distributed can make the same claim. The film didn’t ruin their production division. It was just the most recent film to come out when the decision was announced. Does the film deserve this infamy? Or is it a decent horror movie saddled with some bad luck?
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July 25th, 2017
Both Dunkirk and Girls Trip topped expectations earning $50.51 million and $31.20 million respectively. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets didn’t do as well, but it should do well internationally. Overall, the weekend box office rose 11% from last weekend earning $181 million. On the downside, this was 7.8% lower than the same weekend last year and 2017 had already lost its lead over 2016, so this is really bad news. Year-to-date, 2017 is now behind 2016 by $31 million / 0.5% at $6.46 billion to $6.49 billion. Things really need to turn around soon, but I don’t think that’s going to happen. Hopefully the fall will be much better.
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July 18th, 2017
The weekend box office chart didn’t hold a lot of surprises. War for the Planet of the Apes earned first place with a slightly better than predicted result of $56.26 million, while most of the rest of our predictions were also close enough to be considered victories. Overall, the box office plummeted 21% from last weekend reaching $163 million. This was also a little lower than the same weekend last year. The emphasis is on “little”, as it only dropped by 0.062% or about $100,000. On its own, this would be nothing to worry about. However, 2017’s lead over 2016 has completely evaporated and the year is now 0.19% or $12 million behind last year’s pace at $6.21 billion to $6.22 billion. We’ve lost about $200 million this summer compared to last year and I don’t see that turning around any time soon.
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July 16th, 2017
A weekend estimate just ahead of our prediction for War for the Planet of the Apes, and a one just below our prediction for Spider-Man: Homecoming means there’s a clear winner at the box office. War will come in with $56.5 million, per Fox’s Sunday morning estimate, while Homecoming will finish second with $45.2 million.
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July 15th, 2017
As expected, War for the Planet of the Apes earned first place on Friday. To match predictions, the film needed to make between $18 million and $19 million, but instead it earned $22.1 million during its first day of release. Furthermore, this is better than its previews were, so this suggests good word-of-mouth and longer than average legs. Its reviews are 94% positive and it earned a solid A from CinemaScore, so long legs wouldn’t be a shock. Perhaps it can reach $60 million over the weekend. Anything less than $55 million will be a little disappointing. Splitting the difference gets us a weekend target of $57 million.
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July 14th, 2017
War for the Planet of the Apes started its box office run with $5 million in Thursday previews, which is a little lower than expected, but not tragically so. For example, Alien: Covenant earned $4.2 million during its previews on its was to a $36.16 million weekend. If War for the Planet of the Apes has the same legs, it would make $43 million this weekend. On the other hand, The Mummy earned $2.66 million pulling in $31.67 million during its opening weekend. If War for the Planet has the same legs as that film, it would earn just shy of $60 million during its opening weekend. War has much better reviews than either of those films, to it could have better legs than either of those films. That said, it is also the third installment in the reboot franchise and that tends to shrink legs. The average is just over $50 million, which sounds about right.
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July 13th, 2017
War for the Planet of the Apes is going to be the biggest of the three wide releases coming out this week. This much is a near certainty. However, there is some doubt if it will open in first place, or if Spider-Man: Homecoming will remain the top draw over the weekend. The only other wide release of the week is Wish Upon, a low-budget horror film, if it can just reach the top five, then the studio will be very happy. Finally, The Big Sick is expanding wide. Given its limited release run so far, it should become a sleeper hit over the summer. This weekend last year, The Secret Life of Pets and Ghostbusters had a one-two punch of nearly $100 million. I think War for the Planet of the Apes and Spider-Man: Homecoming will top that figure, while the overall depth should help 2017 win in the year-over-year competition, but it will likely be close.
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July 7th, 2017
Next weekend is busier than this weekend with two wide releases and a wide expansion; however, War for the Planet of the Apes will tower over Wish Upon and The Big Sick and it is the only real choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening three-day weekend box office number for War for the Planet of the Apes.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprise consisting of their choice of either one TV on DVD release, two movies, or a kids package (could be a theatrical release, a couple of single-disc TV on DVD releases, or a full season TV on DVD release).
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven’t won, or haven’t won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don’t delay!
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July 1st, 2017
I hate it when the first of the month lands on a Saturday. By the time this story goes live, we will still have almost no box office data for Despicable Me 3, so we won’t know if June ended on a positive note. Fortunately, Wonder Woman beat expectations and might end up as the biggest hit of the summer, at least for a little while. July begins with Spider-Man: Homecoming, which should make at least $300 million and is the last film being released this summer that has a shot at being a $400 million hit domestically. It is very likely that nothing else this month will come within $100 million of that movie, so that could help its legs. There are a few potential $100 million hits, including War for the Planet of the Apes, Dunkirk, and a couple of other long shots. Last July had a similar feel with The Secret Life of Pets topping the list with well over $300 million, while there were five other $100 million hits. This July would have to beat expectations substantially to match this performance. I’m not confident 2017 will be able to maintain its pace at the box office. I’m worried at least one big film will struggled and 2017 will end the month behind 2016’s pace.
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March 22nd, 2017
Horror movie starring Joey King and Ryan Phillippe opens June 30 ... Full Movie Details.
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