March 22nd, 2019
I missed last week. Last week there were a number of films that earned great reviews. This week, none of the films with more than a handful of reviews are doing well enough to be optimistic about their box office chances. Both Buddy and Maze are earning 100% positive reviews, so maybe one of them will beat the odds.
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March 18th, 2018
Coco won Best Feature-Length Animated Film at this year’s Oscars, an award Pixar has won so many times that people sometimes refer to it as The Pixar Award. Did Coco deserve this award? Or have voters just become accustomed to voting for whatever Pixar movie came out that year?
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November 8th, 2017
It is not a particularly strong week on the home market. Cars 3 is the biggest new release, but it is far from the best. There were not a lot of contenders for Pick of the Week. The Philadelphia Story and Your Name were the two best with the latter coming out on top and its Blu-ray Combo Pack is the Pick of the Week.
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November 5th, 2017
Cars is inarguably the weak link in the Pixar canon. Cars was the first Pixar film that I didn’t think was an instant classic, while Cars 2 is still the only Pixar movie that earned bad reviews. Can Cars 3 break this streak? Or is it still the weak link?
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August 31st, 2017
Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets earned first place on the international chart with $32.78 million in 32 countries for totals of $124.12 million internationally and $163.81 million worldwide. The film earned first place in China with $28.88 million over the weekend for a total of $29.24 million. The film has yet to open in South Korea and Italy so it will likely top its production budget worldwide; that’s nowhere near enough to break even, but if it can get to $200 million worldwide, then it can at least safe face.
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July 19th, 2017
I thought last week was close, but this week was even closer. In fact, according to Sunday’s estimates, Spider-Man: Homecoming was the top film on the international chart, but Monday’s final numbers had Despicable Me 3 in first place. That film earned $72.7 million in 61 markets for totals of $434.00 million internationally and $622.39 million worldwide. Its biggest opening came in Indonesia, where it earned $3.5 million on 230 screens. Meanwhile, the film is now the second biggest animated film at the Chinese box office. This past weekend, Despicable Me 3 earned $22.09 million on 8,057 screens for a two-week total of $115.16 million. The film opens in Japan and South Korea before the end of the month, as well as Italy and a few other smaller markets by the end of August.
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June 29th, 2017
Transformers: The Last Knight dominated the international box office chart earning $196.2 million in 40 markets, picking up first place in each of those markets. There’s good news and bad news. Good news, this is slightly ahead of Age of Extinction’s combined opening in these markets. Bad news, most of it came from China, where studios only get 25% of the box office, instead of an average 40% in other international markets. The Chinese debut was impressive, $127.24 million on 7,800 screens, including previews. It also did well in South Korea with $9.53 million on 1,727 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $12.87 million. It was nearly as potent in Russia with $8.45 million on 1,456 screens. On the other hand, its openings in the U.K. ($5.90 million in 577 theaters) and in Australia ($3.39 million on 539 screens) were actually worse than its opening here, given the relative size of the markets involved. The film has yet to open in several major markets, including France, where it opens this weekend, so it should remain active on the international chart for a while.
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June 15th, 2017
It’s a busy week with four truly wide releases, led by Cars 3. The latest film from Pixar is widely expected to earn first place at the box office, but it is part of the only Pixar franchise that isn’t a critical darling. Rough Night is playing in 3,000 theaters, but its early reviews are mixed and that's not going to help its box office numbers. All Eyez on Me is playing in 2,450 theaters, but its early reviews are even worse. Meanwhile, 47 Meters Down’s early reviews were 78% positive, but that has since changed for the worse. This weekend last year, there were two wide releases, Finding Dory and Central Intelligence, which earned a combined $170 million. There’s no way the four new releases coming out this week will match that. Even another strong hold by Wonder Woman won’t make a difference in the year-over-year competition and 2017 is going to lose.
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June 1st, 2017
May was a really soft month with only one unqualified hit, Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2, which is climbing towards $375 million domestically. The second biggest hit of the month will be Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales and I would be surprised if it tops $150 million by any serious margin. June looks a lot more profitable. There are five weeks and every week there is at least one film with a great shot at $100 million or more. In fact, there are four films with at least a decent shot at $200 million and we could double the number of $300 million hits released so far this year. Wonder Woman is widely expected to start the month with an explosive debut and pulling in more than $100 million during its opening weekend is more and more likely. That said, Despicable Me 3 will probably end up being the biggest hit overall with over $300 million. Meanwhile, Cars 3 and Transformers: The Last Knight are both aiming for $200 million. Last June was not particularly strong, outside of one hit. Finding Dory earned nearly $500 million domestically, while the second best film, Central Intelligence, barely earned a quarter of that. I don’t think any film will come close to Finding Dory, but there’s a lot more depth this time around and I have high hopes 2017 will extend its lead.
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July 25th, 2014
There are a trio of wide releases coming out this week, sort of. The first of these, if we go alphabetically is And So It Goes, but it is only opening in 1,762 theaters, which is not quite enough to be wide and likely not enough to reach the top five. Hercules and Lucy are both opening truly wide and both are earning reviews that are currently in the overall positive level. (Although it is close enough that it might change.) Lucy will very likely come out on top, while Hercules should earn second place. There's one more film of note, The Fluffy Movie, which is opening in 400 theaters and has a slim chance at making the top ten. This weekend last year saw the release of The Wolverine, which opened with $53.11 million. There's a chance the top two films won't make that much this year. In other words, 2014 is going to lose in the year-over-year comparison yet again.
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July 22nd, 2014
As expected, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes remained on top of the box office chart with a healthy lead over The Purge: Anarchy. Unfortunately, the other two wide releases, Planes: Fire and Rescue and Sex Tape were anything but healthy and that led to a weakening box office. It fell less than 1% from last weekend to $149 million. This was 24% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2014 is now 5.6% or $340 million behind last year's pace at $5.79 billion to $6.13 billion. I think with summer wrapping up, it is close to the time to panic.
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July 1st, 2014
Overall, June was not good. Most films matched expectations, or came close enough that there weren't major disappointments. However, it looks like How to Train Your Dragon 2 will miss expectations by more than $100 million. This was such a massive amount that 2014 lost its lead over 2013 and not even Transformers: Age of Extinction's $100 million opening was able to turn things around. Looking forward to July, there's not a lot of good news. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes might be the only film coming out during July that will reach the $100 million milestone, but on the high end, it might reach the $200 million mark. There are a few others that have a shot, but are not favored to reach the century mark. On the other hand, there are more films that may or may not open / expand wide and even if they do, they will likely have no real impact at the box office. By comparison, last July, Despicable Me 2 was the top draw and finished with more than $350 million. There were also four other films that surpassed $100 million at the box office. It seems practically impossible for 2014 to match those numbers and will likely finish the month behind last year's pace. Overall, 2014 isn't doing poorly, but the summer has been much weaker than the spring was, so we've gone from potential record breaking year to merely average.
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August 13th, 2013
There were four films that opened wide last week and while none of them were monster hits, three of the four of them were solid openings. Elysium opened in first place, but landed on the lower end of expectations. We're the Millers was a bit of a surprise hit, earning more over five days than it cost to make. Disney's Planes had the best opening for an animated film in August. There's not a lot of competition for that record. Finally there was Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters, which will cost the studio a fortune. With four new releases taking the top four spots, it should be no surprise that the overall box office was strong. In fact, it rose 16% from last weekend to $159 million. No film was able to match last year's winner, The Bourne Legacy, but we had a lot better depth this time around. This helped 2013 win the year-over-year comparison by 12%. Meanwhile, 2013 has completed the comeback and now has a 3.6% lead over 2012 at $6.85 billion to $6.61 billion.
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August 1st, 2013
July was hit and miss at the box office, mostly miss. In fact, only two films really topped expectations, Despicable Me 2 and The Conjuring. That said, 2013 has nearly closed the gap with 2012 and it won't take much to pull ahead. Looking forward to August, we find that it is a very busy month with 16 or so films opening wide over five weeks. Of course, the closer you get to September, the more likely these films will struggle to find an audience, and more often than not, there are simply too many films opening wide to suspect they will all find an audience. On the high end, 2 Guns could be the biggest hit of the month with just over $100 million. The Smurfs 2 and Elysium could pull in $100 million. All three of those films are opening in the first two weeks of the month. After that, most of the new releases will be lucky if they reach $50 million during their theatrical runs. By comparison, last August was not as busy with 14 wide releases. Of those, only one film, The Bourne Legacy, topped $100 million, although a couple came reasonably close. Hopefully we will have more $100 million hits this time around and 2013 will be able to complete the comeback.
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