March 1st, 2024
There’s no question at all whether Dune: Part Two will top the box office chart this weekend, nor whether it will have the best opening weekend of the year so far. This is a film with loftier goals though. The real targets for the film are, at the low end, finishing Sunday as the highest-grossing movie of 2024, and, at the high end, breaking the psychologically important (and let’s face it, financially important) $100-million-opening barrier. Here’s what our model has to say about that, plus another opening weekend for The Chosen.
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February 11th, 2024
With Lisa Frankenstein bombing, the distraction of the Super Bowl, poor weather in the Southeast, and no mainstream Oscar contender that hasn’t already played out, this will be the worst weekend at the box office in North America since December, 2022, and most likely the fourth-worst weekend since the post-pandemic era started on Memorial Day, 2021. After a poor debut last weekend, and a middling hold this weekend, Argylle will retain top spot on the North American chart more-or-less by default.
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February 4th, 2024
Argylle looked like it was heading to a dismal debut when we ran our predictions on Friday. It’s coming in well ahead of what our model was seeing based on $1.7 million in previews on Thursday, although it will end up with a so-so $18 million, according to Universal’s Sunday-morning projection. Meanwhile, The Chosen is exceeding expectations, and will end the weekend in second place.
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February 2nd, 2023
The first weekend in February brings three new wide releases to movie theaters across North America. Starting its theatrical run in 3,912 cinemas, the sports comedy 80 for Brady stars Lily Tomlin, Jane Fonda, Sally Field, and Rita Moreno as three lifelong friends who travel to Houston to watch their idol Tom Brady play in Super Bowl LI. The second-widest release this week is newcomer, Knock at the Cabin. Playing in 3,643 locations, the M. Night Shyamalan psychological horror film follows a family who, when taken hostage, are forced to make a choice to avoid the apocalypse.
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