November 21st, 2025
This month’s edition of The Numbers Business Report, features our biggest annual study: our predictions for the domestic theatrical market in 2026. Not only do we present detailed movie-by-movie forecasts for 2026 Q4 wide releases, but we also have our overall predictions for the year. Our feature article dives into the yearly forecast, going into depth on wide releases earning > $200 million, other wide releases (>2,000 theaters), limited and specialty releases (<2,000 theaters), limited engagement re-releases (<2,000 theaters), holdovers from the previous year, and currently undated films.
If you’re a regular reader, you may have noticed that we've refined exactly what we mean by a “wide release” for this study. To qualify as a wide release in our OpusData database and here on The Numbers website, a movie needs to play in 600 domestic theaters. Back when we started collecting box office reports in 1997, that represented a significant investment on the part of the distributor, since it meant shipping at least 600 prints of a film to theaters throughout North America. Today, getting a movie into 600 theaters isn’t nearly the same logistical challenge, and there are far more movies released each year that meet our database’s definition of “wide.” Unfortunately, many of those movies also don’t report box office, or have more niche releases—perhaps playing only a few times over a weekend in a theater, and targeting a very specific audience.
Trying to compile predictions for all of the “wide” releases by our traditional metric has become a fool’s errand, and for the 2026 prediction, we’ve moved the line for a wide release, for the purposes of prediction, to be one that plays in at least 2,000 theaters at some point in its run. That covers all the major studio releases, plus quite a lot of independent films, and gives us a good set for our predictions. In fact, earnings for films playing in over 2,000 theaters represent over 92% of reported box office this year, and we expect those releases to hold a similar market share in 2026. Of course, we still take the remaining 8% seriously, and our 2026 forecast includes predictions for limited and specialty releases and re-releases, which still represent a half-billion-dollar market.
Right now, it looks as though the final number for 2025 will be within 5% of our original prediction of $9.3 million twelve months ago. That would mark four straight years of being within 5% of the actual year-end total 13 months in advance.
To view our full prediction, subscribe here. As a sneak peek, the top-earning film during the year is expected to be The Super Mario Galaxy. The franchise has already broken records, with its first installment becoming the first video-game adaptation to gross more than $1 billion worldwide, and earning $575 million in North America.
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November 3rd, 2025
The last two Business Reports featured our first analysis of 2026, with predictions for all announced wide releases in the first and second quarters. In the latest issue of The Numbers Business Report, we continue building out predictions for 2026, shifting our focus towards the beginning of the end of the year. Our feature article presents our first full-quarter prediction, along with detailed movie-by-movie forecasts for the major releases scheduled for that period.
July’s releases dominate the third quarter at the box office, led by major franchise continuations and the highly anticipated Christopher Nolan film, The Odyssey. Predicted to claim the number one spot in the third quarter is the next in the Spider-Man/MCU franchise, Spider-Man: Brand New Day, following Spider-Man: No Way Home, which earned $814.81 million domestically.
Another significant continuation arrives from Illumination’s Minions/Despicable Me franchises (which have earned $1.95 billion to date) with Minions 3. Other notable franchise releases include the live-action Moana, a sixth Insidious movie, Clayface joining the DC Universe, a reboot of the Resident Evil franchise, a Practical Magic 28th-anniversary reunion, and an Evil Dead spin-off.
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April 27th, 2023
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No other film released in the past few weeks has been able to slow down Mario and friends as the legendary video game characters once again top the list of widest releases this week, and still the only movie to be showing in over 4,000 cinemas—in 4,204 of them to be exact. The film has racked up just over $447 million in domestic earnings at latest count. Next week will end Mario’s reign at the top with the opening of the most recent Guardians of the Galaxy feature, but this week the animated juggernaut will enjoy one last week as the most widely-available film in North America.
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April 21st, 2023
After no less than six new wide releases last weekend, five more films arrive in over 600 theaters this time around, but none will topple The Super Mario Bros. Movie as the top-earning film in North America. Evil Dead Rise will most likely come the closest, and Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant should find a place in the top ten. The fortunes of Beau is Afraid, Chevalier, and Somewhere in Queens is harder to predict. One or two of them could hit the top ten, but it seems unlikely all three will manage the feat.
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April 20th, 2023
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Currently enjoying a 15-day domestic haul of over $371 million, The Super Mario Bros. Movie again stands alone as this week’s widest release. Last weekend, the film scored the best second weekend ever for an animated movie. Only dropping 21 cinemas this week, the blockbuster film is still widely available in 4,350 locations. While Mario shouldn’t have any problems leading the box office, like last week, it contends with a flurry of newcomers making their big screen debuts.
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October 16th, 2018
Ant-Man and the Wasp is coming out on DVD, Blu-ray Combo Pack, and 4K Ultra HD Combo Pack this week and it is scaring away most of the competition. Fortunately, it is also an amazing movie and a Contender for Pick of the Week. It isn’t the only contender, as both Mamoru Hosoda Movie Collection (Blu-ray) and Whitney (DVD or Blu-ray) were in the race. However, in the end, I went with Ant-Man and the Wasp.
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September 13th, 2017
Apparently it is Halloween, because there are a lot of horror titles on this week’s list. Some of them are good, some are not. As for Pick of the Week contenders, there are a few of them. If you have kids, then Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie on DVD, Blu-ray Combo Pack, or 4K Ultra Combo Pack is your best bet. If you are a fan of Sci-fi, then go with the final season for Orphan Black. However, in the end I went with Phenomena on Blu-ray. You can also buy the movie from the Official Site in a Steelbox with soundtrack and pamphlet.
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August 21st, 2017
I previously reviewed the first season of Ash vs The Evil Dead and loved it. The ratings were also very good and it was renewed for a second season. The network renewed the show for a third season less than a week after the second season premiere. However, ratings slipped and the season finale was watched by barely more than half of the people who watched the first season finale. Does this mean the quality tanked? Am I still excited for season three?
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December 8th, 2016
The first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide was a little shorter than I would have liked, because there wasn’t much in the way of first-run releases and franchise box sets. The second installment is going to be even shorter. That’s not to say there isn’t a lot of TV on DVD releases that would make worthy gifts, but we limit ourselves to first seasons and complete series Megasets. You don’t need us to tell you if Modern Family: Season Seven would make a good gift, for example. If the recipient hasn’t started watching the show yet, they are likely not into it. (There is an exception to this rule this year, but more on that down below.) The number of high-quality new shows that have a first season out on DVD / Blu-ray are very limited. Atlanta is amazing, but the first season is only out on Video on Demand. The first season of Luke Cage is only available on Netflix. Furthermore, there are not a lot Megasets worth talking about. That said, we begin with not just a Megaset, but a Gigaset. Perhaps even a Teraset!
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August 24th, 2016
There are not many major hits on this week’s list, but there are several releases that are contenders for Pick of the Week. This includes TV on DVD releases like Ash vs The Evil Dead: Season 1 (DVD or Blu-ray), as well as limited releases like Maggie’s Plan (DVD or Blu-ray). However, in the end I went with The Nice Guys on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
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August 22nd, 2016
Bruce Campbell returns to Evil Dead, this time in the TV show, Ash vs The Evil Dead. Turning a movie into a TV show, especially a cult classic from 30 years ago, seems like a risky prospect. Does it pay off? Will fans of the show want to pick it up?
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