September 29th, 2025
The latest issue of The Numbers Business Report continues to build out our early predictions for 2026, this time shifting attention to the second quarter of next year. Our feature article provides our first full prediction, as well as detailed movie-by-movie forecasts for the major releases scheduled for that period.
Similar to previous years, 2026 should feature several titles earning over $100 million, primarily from established and highly successful franchises. Examples include Super Mario Bros., whose previous film grossed over $500 million domestically, making it the highest-grossing animated movie of its year, and Toy Story, a franchise that has accumulated more than $1.4 billion domestically over the past 30 years. Other notable franchises with major releases include Star Wars, Scary Movie, and Mortal Kombat.
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September 11th, 2025
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The weekend box office saw newcomer, The Conjuring: Last Rites, take theaters by storm, sinking its teeth into a franchise-best $84 million in its opening salvo. The horror hit claimed the top spot by nearly $74 million over the competition in just its first three days. But it may be a short-lived reign for Last Rites, as a fresh wave of releases arrives this weekend, including the highly-anticipated latest entry in the Demon Slayer franchise with the release of Demon Slayer -Kimetsu no Yaiba- The Movie: Infinity Castle.
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September 4th, 2025
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Weapons found itself at the top of the domestic box office over the weekend, scoring $10.47 million in its fourth weekend for a 24-day total of $132.66 million, outpointing the 50th anniversary release of Jaws and newcomer Caught Stealing by roughly $830,000 and $2.67 million, respectively. Despite its strong run at the top, it will slip out of first place (for good this time) as a flurry of new films make their way into theaters.
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March 10th, 2024
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This weekend’s new releases are more than living up to their “Po-tential,” led by a fantastic $58.3-million opening for Kung Fu Panda 4—for certain, the second-best debut for a film in the franchise, with an outside chance of topping the original Kung Fu Panda’s $60.2 million if it does really, really well on Sunday. While that will rightfully be garnering the most attention, Imaginary and Cabrini are also doing better than anticipated, and Dune: Part Two will have a great hold in its second weekend.
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June 30th, 2022
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After an exciting head-to-head contest at the box office last weekend, another newcomer arrives in theaters this week to challenge chart toppers Top Gun: Maverick and Elvis. Minions: The Rise of Gru will open in 4,391 theaters this week, making it the widest release. The prequel to 2015’s Minions and fifth film in the Despicable Me franchise has earned nearly $4 million overseas so far in rollouts that began in mid June. Set in the 1970s, the animated feature follows a 12-year old Gru (voiced by Steve Carell) as he grows up in the suburbs. The animated comedy from Illumination will also be available on IMAX screens throughout North America.
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June 16th, 2022
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With Spring nearing an end and Summer upon us, big things are happening at theaters across North America. With the number one and number two films at the box office also holding two of the three top positions of widest release ever, each week seems to possess a new and exciting release. This week is no exception as Lightyear arrives in theaters. The sci-fi action-adventure film directed by Angus MacLane charts the origin story for Buzz Lightyear, the action figure in the popular Toy Story films. Starring Chris Evans as the titular character, Lightyear debuts in 4,255 locations including IMAX screens throughout the United States and Canada.
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October 10th, 2019
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It’s another week with a monster hit and nearly nothing else. Fortunately, that monster hit is Toy Story 4, which is easily the Pick of the Week and would be during all but the best weeks of the year. Midsommar comes close to being a contender for Pick of the Week, but the extras are well below average, even compared to a limited release.
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October 7th, 2019
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Toy Story 3 gave the franchise such a perfect send off that when Toy Story 4 was first announced it was met with a lot of trepidation. Most assumed it would be impossible to live up to its predecessor and many were worried it would fail at that task so much that it would retroactively make the franchise worse. Was it able to do the impossible? If not, was it at least able to avoid being a disaster?
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June 30th, 2019
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Toy Story 4 is earning first place over the weekend with $57.92 million. A few weeks ago, a 52% sophomore stint drop-off by a family film would have been a really bad sign; however, June was so bad that this result matches expectations, more or less. The film now has $236.92 million domestically and should race past $300 million here before it is done. This is a monster hit and more than enough to be profitable, but still disappointing. This film is having a better weekend internationally, earning $80.6 million in 45 markets for totals of $259.6 million internationally and $496.5 million worldwide. This includes a $7.0 million opening in France, which is the best in the franchise.
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June 25th, 2019
I think 2019 is done. The year isn’t quite halfway done, but I think I’m ready to call the box office race with 2018 over. Toy Story 4 was the latest potential monster hit to miss expectations by a huge margin. Granted, it still opened in first place with $120.10 million and it will make a substantial profit, but this is still about 25% lower than a lot of people expected and the overall weekend is still a massive disappointment. It did rise 50% from last weekend hitting $204 million, but this was 25% lower than the same weekend last year and that’s a much more important figure. Year-to-date, 2019 is now behind 2018 by 8.9% or $510 million at $5.26 billion to $5.77 billion. If you want to stretch for some good news, then this isn’t the worst deficit we’ve seen this year.
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June 23rd, 2019
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Almost none of the films on this week’s list are living up to expectations, at least not according to the weekend estimates. Toy Story 4 is earning the best opening in the franchise with an estimated $118.0 million weekend. This is third-highest opening for an animated film, so there is reason to celebrate. However, it is also much lower than expected and a little more front-loaded than anticipated, so its future might be in doubt. The film is doing better internationally with an estimated opening weekend of $120.0 million in 37 markets. The film had the third biggest opening in Mexico with $23.4 million, putting it behind just the two most recent Avengers movies. It had the biggest opening for an animated film in Brazil with $9.6 million. The film was also a monster hit in the U.K. with $15.0 million. On the other hand, it struggled in China with a second-place $13.4 million opening there; however, most animated films struggle in China. Hopefully the film’s reviews and its A from CinemaScore translate into long legs, because 2019 really needs more success stories at the box office.
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June 1st, 2019
While the final weekend in May isn’t over yet, we can safely say the month was merely okay. It managed to keep pace with last May, but I was really hoping to cut into 2019’s deficit by a significant margin. June is not looking any better, at least not compared to 2018. There are two potential monster hits, The Secret Life of Pets 2 and Toy Story 4, as well as a trio of $100 million hits, Dark Phoenix, Men in Black: International, and Annabelle Comes Home. On the surface, this looks excellent; however, last June was even better on top with Incredibles 2 and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom earning a combined $1 billion domestically. Granted, the only other $100 million hit was Oceans 8, so this year should have a lot better depth. I don’t think it will be enough to gain any ground in the year-over-year comparison, which is the only way to really judge how a month is doing at this point.
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November 2nd, 2015
Toy Story that Time Forgot is the latest Disney TV special to hit the home market. It is based on the Toy Story franchise and hit TVs last December. Is is worth checking out if you haven't seen it before? Is it worth picking up?
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August 9th, 2014
Toy Story of Terror was a TV special that aired last year around Halloween. They are releasing it on DVD and Blu-ray in late summer, because if they waited till Halloween, they would have to deal with a flood of Christmas releases. Since it is just a 30-minute TV special, it runs just 21 minutes without commercials, so even if the short is worth watching, there needs to be solid extras to make it worth picking up. Is that the case?
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October 16th, 2013
The Croods opened in March with more than $40 million and lasted long enough to pull in more than $180 million domestically and $570 million worldwide. That's a very impressive run for a spring release. Did it deserve this box office success? Or did it thrive because of the lack of direct competition?
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