October 24th, 2018
It is a slow week on the home market, as Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! is the only first run release. There are several horror films that are selling well enough to be worth talking about, but that is all. As far as the best of the best are concerned, the two I’m most interested in and I put in requests for screeners for both are BlacKkKlansman and Incredibles 2, but they are only coming out on VOD this week. I don’t like handing out Pick of the Week titles to VOD releases, so the real race is between The Americans: The Complete Final Season and Made In Abyss: Season One. Both are worth picking up, but I think there will be a full series Megaset for The Americans, so I’m giving the title to Made In Abyss.
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February 8th, 2018
This weekend the Fifty Shades franchise is expected to surpass $1 billion in total worldwide box office with the release of the final installment, Fifty Shades Freed. All that income comes from films with an estimated combined budget for all three films of $150 million. The last time Hollywood saw this kind of success with an erotic drama/thriller, it created an entire subgenre that ate its way all through the 90s. Yet, after this year, it seems Valentine’s Day weekend will be left without a Fifty Shades replacement. So why the hesitancy from Hollywood to step up to the challenge this time?
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March 27th, 2016
Batman and Superman not only had to fight each other this weekend, but also mediocre reviews. They have come through in some style, however, posting a record for March of $170.1 million, according to Warner Bros.’ Sunday morning estimate. Our model has the film coming a little below that mark, at $165 million or so, which might mean it won’t quite top Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part II’s $169 million, which is currently the studio’s best ever weekend. But the fact that we’re comparing the movie to the Harry Potter franchise is nothing but good news for them.
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November 1st, 2015
October has come to an end and everyone should be happy about that. Except for The Martian, there were no serious hits that opened last month. There were more outright bombs than even midlevel hits. Fortunately, October of last year wasn't spectacular either, so 2015 maintains a healthy lead over 2014. Even more fortunately, November looks fantastic. There are four films that have the potential to earn $200 million or more. The biggest of these is the final Hunger Games movie, which should reach $400 million. Spectre has a real shot at $300 million and could be the biggest hit in the franchise. Meanwhile, nearly every November there's an animated kids movie that becomes a monster hit. This year, The Peanuts Movie and The Good Dinosaur are both aiming for that box office milestone. The last time we didn't have a family film that earned at least $100 million in November was 2011 and that's because there were four family films that opened in the final two weeks of the month and that much competition meant they cannibalized each other. Both of these has a shot at $200 million and if neither of them reached $200 million, I would be shocked. Meanwhile, last November was a good month at the top with three monster hits: The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1, Big Hero 6, and Interstellar. However, after those three films, there were not much positive to talk about. It really looks like 2015 will match 2014 at the top, plus it could have better depth. I might be a little too optimistic, but I think November is going to be a great month at the box office.
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August 25th, 2015
Clouds of Sils Maria is a French co-production that earned a lot of praise in its native market. Not only was it nominated for the Palme d'Or at the Cannes Film Festival, but it earned six César Award nominations, including a win for Kristen Stewart for Best Supporting Actress. She became the first American actress to win a César. Unfortunately, despite this praise, the movie never caught on here in theaters earning just under $2 million in limited release. Granted, that's better than a lot of films manage, but still disappointing compared to the critical praise. Did it deserve better? Or was the film geared towards critics and won't appeal to the average moviegoer?
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October 31st, 2014
October was a better than expected month with the overall box office keeping pace with October of 2013, for the most part. (The last weekend will be terrible, but that's because of Halloween.) We were able to close the gap somewhat in the year-over-year comparison, at least by a little bit. So how will November do compared to October. Let's put it this way. There are only seven films opening wide this month. Of those, Beyond the Lights will likely not make an impact at the box office. Every other film has at least a reasonable shot at $100 million. More than half the of the films opening this month could hit $200 million. Leading the way will be The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1, which could hit $400 million. The only problem is when book franchises split the final installment into two parts, the first part tends to be weaker at the box office. Interstellar is a big question mark. On the low end, it could make just over $100 million, while on the high end, just over $300 million is within reach. That's a wide range of expectations. On the downside, last November, there were two movies to reach $400 million: Catching Fire and Frozen. On the other hand, there was only one other movie to make more than $100 million, Thor: The Dark World, so perhaps the depth this year will help 2014 come out ahead in the year-over-year comparison.
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September 22nd, 2014
This summer was terrible at the box office with no $250 million hits throughout the summer until Guardians of the Galaxy opened in August. That said, there were a number of smaller movies that did quite well at the box office. Neighbors, for instance, cost less than $20 million to make, but pulled in $150 million at the box office. Was it a hit because of its quality? Or did it benefit from the weakness in the tentpole releases?
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March 20th, 2014
Another week, another pair of wide releases. That's becoming a common thing to say. It is also a good thing to say, because too many movies tend to hurt all films involved and it is much better to have one big release and the counter-programing film. This week the big release is Divergent, which the studio is hoping will be the start of a new franchise. The box office tracking for the film looks good, even if the reviews do not. The counter-programing this week is Muppets Most Wanted, which is also opening with a saturation level theater count and it looks to do as well as The Muppets did. Last year there was also a strong one-two punch with The Croods topping Olympus has Fallen $43.64 million to $30.37 million. I'm not sure that Muppets Most Wanted will hold up its end of the bargain, but Divergent is poised for an opening of at least $50 million. It looks likes 2014 will again win over 2013.
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January 31st, 2014
After a weak start, January rebounded and a couple of films on last month's preview cracked $100 million at the box office. Granted, Lone Survivor is technically a December release, but Ride Along will become one of the rare January releases to reach the century mark. Unfortunately, there doesn't appear to be too many February releases that have a real shot at $100 million. It is very likely that The Lego Movie will reach that milestone, but most of the rest of the movies will be lucky if they reach $50 million. Last February was very similar. We had one surprise $100 million hit, Identity Thief, plus a couple of solid midlevel hits, Warm Bodies, for instance. However, for the most part, the month was one miss after another. This means 2014 could continue its winning ways, or at the very least, shouldn't fall behind 2013's pace.
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January 10th, 2014
There is only one truly new wide release this weekend: The Legend of Hercules. This film is earning zero positive reviews and most analysts think it will miss the top five. Fortunately, there are a couple of limited releases expanding wide this weekend that should help compensate. Lone Survivor is the most obviously mainstream hit and it has been doing surprisingly well in limited release. Meanwhile, Her is probably too out there to be a mainstream hit, but its reviews suggest it should at least do well with those looking for Oscar-quality films. This weekend last year was the weekend Zero Dark Thirty expanded wide. It pulled in $24.44 million over the weekend, which is a figure Lone Survivor might match. Unfortunately for 2014, 2013 had much better depth at the box office, so even if the Lone Survivor does get to $25 million or beyond, it still looks like the year will continue lower than last year.
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January 1st, 2014
It's the first month of the new year, but the biggest hit might be a film released in December. Last month ended on a slow note with all five Christmas day releases failing to become hits, some more than others. (It's a little too soon to tell if The Wolf of Wall Street or The Secret Life of Walter Mitty will do well enough to break even any time soon, but neither is a serious hit.) There are still some December releases that will likely remain on the charts through the opening weekends of January, while there are some films that opened in limited release last month with a scheduled wide release this month. Of the purely January releases, I would guess Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit will be the biggest hit. Even then, it won't live up to the previous films in the franchise, even if you don't take inflation into account. Most of the rest of the new releases will be happy if they can become midlevel hits. Last January was led by Mama, which earned more than $70 million. I think Shadow Recruit will top that figure at the box office, while there are a similar number of likely box office bombs opening this year as there were last year. 2014 could start out ahead of 2013's pace, but it likely won't be a huge difference either way.
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November 24th, 2013
Thanksgiving is less than a week away and that means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and a ton of shopping. It also means the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. Over the next month, we will talk about TV on DVD releases, independent releases, foreign language releases, classics, etc. but this week we start with Major Movie Releases. These are first run releases, franchise box sets, etc. However, this year seems weaker than years past. Last year the biggest new release was The Avengers, which was also one of the best reviewed wide releases of the year. This year the biggest release is Iron Man 3, which earned good reviews, but not great reviews. Last year there were a ton of franchise box sets. This year has been pretty barren. In fact, I think the only franchise box set that's truly new and really worth picking up is...
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November 7th, 2013
It's a big week with several first run releases, some big TV on DVD, releases, and more to deal with. The only one that truly rises to the level of Pick of the Week is Mad Men: Season Six, but the screener arrived late and I hate awarding Pick of the Week to a title when that happens. The only other release I really want to see is White House Down, but that's more guilty pleasure than Pick of the Week. I guess it goes to Mad Men: Season Six on DVD or Blu-ray.
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November 5th, 2013
Twilight came out in 2008 to a mixture of high buzz and abject horror. There were a lot of people who were major fans of the book series by Stephenie Meyer, while others consider Stephenie Meyer the worst author of all time. That might be a bit harsh. The first movie opened with mixed reviews, but smashed through all expectations with nearly $200 million domestically. A year later, New Moon came out and despite earning just 27% positive reviews. That's awful any way you look at it, but even so, it earned nearly $300 million at the box office. Clearly this franchise is critic-proof and I'm under no delusion that any of my criticisms will stop anyone from buying this 10-disc Blu-ray box set. I'm so convinced that no one will change their minds over my opinion of the movie that I'm going to keep that portion of the review to a minimum and concentrate on the extras instead. After all, anyone interested in this box set has already made up their mind about the movie and just want to know if this box set has enough extras to be worth the price.
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November 1st, 2013
October ended on a winning note, but it was the only time the entire month that 2013 topped 2012 in the year-over-year comparison. This is quite shocking, as Gravity crushed expectations with more than $200 million and counting. Even with that surprise monster hit, the month still couldn't keep pace with last year. Compared to October, November looks a lot better with three films that could be monster hits: Frozen, Thor: The Dark World, and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. On the other hand, those are the only three movies with a 50/50 chance or better to top $100 million compared, while there were seven films that reached that milestone last November. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire should make more than last year's number one film, Skyfall, but the depth last year could prove too much to deal with. 2013 might dip below last year's pace sometime during the month, but hopefully it won't stay there too long.
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October 11th, 2013
The headline might claim God loves limited releases, but it is clear the critics don't. There are more than a dozen limited releases on this week's list, but many of them are earning reviews that are weak, or much, much worse. God Loves Uganda is practically the lone exception, as it is earning perfect reviews. Unfortunately, it's a documentary, so its chances of expanding significantly are very limited. On the other hand, The Inevitable Defeat of Mister and Pete might be the breakout hit of the week. Its reviews are not as good, but good enough to suggest it will find an audience, but it is opening in more than 100 theaters, which might be too many.
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July 8th, 2013
It is a very busy week on the home market with four wide releases, five if you count Spring Breakers, which expanded semi-wide during its second weekend of release. None of these films were big hits at the box office. In fact, the five of them combined made $122 million. Additionally, only one of them earned good reviews. Fortunately, not only did Spring Breakers earn good reviews, its DVD and Blu-ray Combo Pack are loaded, enough to be a contender for Pick of the Week. The other main contender is The Legend of Korra - Book One: Air. Unfortunately, I'm still waiting for the screener for both of those releases, and I hate handing out the Pick of the Week when the screener is on its way. Because of that, I'm going with a late review, Wilfred: Season Two on DVD or Blu-ray.
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June 3rd, 2013
Warm Bodies was released in theaters in early February, which is a bad time of the year to release a film. Additionally, the early buzz was bad. A lot of people saw the basic premise (romance between a zombie boy and a living girl) and thought it was just another Twilight rip-off. The first trailer showed it was something different, but sometimes first impressions are lasting impressions. Fortunately it was able to top expectations and became a surprise midlevel hit. Will it continue to perform well on the home market? And did the studio thank those who made it a hit in theaters by releasing a fully loaded DVD / Blu-ray?
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April 19th, 2013
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2 was one of four releases from the franchise to come out this week on Blu-ray. Normally it would be great news for the Blu-ray market when a monster hit like this comes out; however, the target demographic isn't the prime demographic for Blu-ray. The overall sales actually fell when compared to last week, albeit by less than 2% in terms of units and 15% in terms of revenue. Additionally, sales of 1.61 million units / $37.46 million for the week were 94% / 79% higher than the same weekend last year. You can't complain about that. The overall Blu-ray share took a beating falling to 27% in terms of units and 32% in terms of revenue. This is just an anomaly given the top release(s).
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April 19th, 2013
A pair of new releases led the way on the March 3rd, 2013 edition of the Blu-ray sales chart. Or perhaps there was only one. It depends on how you look at things. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2 earned first place with 649,000 units / $12.96 million. However, second place went to the Breaking Dawn double-shot, which sold 173,000 units / $3.77 million. Technically those are two different releases, but one could count them as one movie. Individually, they have opening week Blu-ray shares of 23% and 29%, which is pretty bad for a first-run release. However, this franchise has always pulled in more women than men, and movies aimed at women tend not to do as well on Blu-ray.
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March 1st, 2013
February is over, and for the most part, we should be very happy it is done and buried. The biggest hit of the month turned out to be Identity Thief, which will cross $100 million shortly. There were also a couple of impressive midlevel hits, like Warm Bodies and Escape from Planet Earth, but for the most part, it was miss after miss. This is bad news for March, which is not only dealing with a slumping 2013 box office, but will be compared with a strong March of 2012. Last March started with The Lorax, which earned more than $200 million. There's a good chance no March release this year will reach this milestone. Last March was also the month The Hunger Games opened, which earned more than $400 million. There's a chance the top three films opening this month won't earn that much combined. 2013 is going to take a beating in the year-over-year comparison and it is already $100 million behind last year's pace.
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February 26th, 2013
It's a good week on the home market with not only one of the biggest films of the last year coming out, but also one of the best. The biggest is The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2, which should be the best selling DVD and Blu-ray for the week, but it isn't a contender for Pick of the Week. For that honor, we go back a few weeks to Frankenweenie. The screener arrived late, but it was worth waiting for and the 3D Combo Pack, while a little pricey, is worth picking up. Also in contender for Pick of the Week is Rocko's Modern Life: The Complete Series.
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February 20th, 2013
The Valentine's Day / President's Day five-day weekend wasn't as lucrative as many had hoped, at least not at the top, which is really bad news for a year that is not off to a great start. A Good Day to Die Hard won the race, but barely, with Identity Thief coming in a very close second over the weekend. Other new releases, like Safe Haven and Escape From Planet Earth did better than expected, while Beautiful Creatures crashed. The overall box office did rise by 36% to $141 million over the three-day period, but the holiday explains that growth. Compare to last year, 2013 actually failed to match last President's Day by 9.3% over the three-day period and with $168 million including Monday, missed the four-day period by 13%. Year-to-date, 2013 is behind 2012 by 6.7% at $1.28 billion to $1.37 billion. I am officially concerned.
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February 1st, 2013
For the most part, January was a really good month and 2013 got off to a really good start. I'm not so sure about February, on the other hand. There's only one film that has a statistically significant shot at $100 million, A Good Day to Die Hard, but I'm a little concerned that it won't live up to expectations. The franchise has been around a long time and it is possible that the target audience has either moved on or are too young to remember when these films were huge at the box office. The film I'm most looking forward to seeing is Warm Bodies, which is earning amazing early reviews (the keyword there is "early"), but it is too high-concept to be a major hit. Last February, there were a couple of films that topped $100 million, plus a few other midlevel hits. I would like to think that would also be the case this year, but I have to be more cautious than that. The evidence points to a weak month ahead, for the most part.
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December 13th, 2012
Rise Of The Guardians reached first place on the international chart with $26.71 million on 9,620 screens in 58 markets for a total of $91.33 million. The film had no major market openings, but it did rise to first place in the U.K. with $2.57 million on 495 screens over the weekend for a total of $6.51 million after two. It also remained in first place in France with $2.86 million on 649 screens, giving it a two-week total of $7.79 million. The film does have a few more markets left to open in, including Australia this coming weekend, so it should earn enough to break even sooner rather than later.
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December 6th, 2012
We are still stuck with studio estimates for the international numbers, but we can confidently say The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2 is in top spot. The film pulled in $48.8 million on 11,800 screens in 73 markets for totals of $447.8 million internationally and $702.40 million worldwide. It has likely already become the biggest hit in the franchise. The film had no major market openings, but it has yet to debut in Japan, but it will likely get past $800 million before then, which will be its last major milestone.
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November 29th, 2012
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2 held firm in first place with $104.21 million on 12,818 screens in 73 markets for a two-week total of $365.46 million intentionally and $592.83 million worldwide. By this time next week, it should be the biggest hit in the franchise. This past weekend, the film opened in Germany earning first place with $12.82 million on 765 screens for a total opening of $16.67 million. Its best holdover was in the U.K. where it made $8.56 million on 559 screens over the weekend for a total of $43.22 million. This is a strong result, but it was down 66%, which is troubling. It was better in Russia down 62% to $8.30 million on 1,380 screens for a total of $36.28 million after two. A 62% decline is actually average for the market, more or less. The film has very few markets left to open in, but it is already profitable, so the studio should be very happy.
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November 26th, 2012
The Thanksgiving long weekend was stronger than anticipated with nearly every film topping predictions, some by pretty big margins. In fact, some earned more over three days than they were expected to earn over five days. Despite this, the box office was actually down 17% from last weekend to $208 million over the three-day portion of the weekend. This was 26% higher than the three-day portion of last year's Thanksgiving long weekend. Over five days, the box office pulled in $291 million, which is the most ever for a Thanksgiving weekend and 25% higher than last year. Year-to-date, 2012 has pulled in $9.75 billion, which is 5.5% higher than last year's running tally of $9.24 billion. If 2012 can simply match 2011 the rest of the way, then we will set a new all-time yearly box office total with about $10.7 billion.
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November 19th, 2012
While The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2 wasn't quite as strong as predicted, it still had a monster opening. Likewise, the two big holdovers both fell a little further than anticipated. The only film in the top five that really beat expectations was Lincoln. Fortunately, all of the films in the top five came close enough to matching the predictions that the overall box office was still very strong. Compared to last week, the box office grew by 44% to just under $250 million. Compared to last year, the box office grew 12%, which is a much more important number. Year-to-date, 2012 has pulled in $9.41 billion and is now 4.8% above last year's pace. It is still technically possible that 2012 will fail to match last year at the box office, but it is ferociously unlikely.
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November 18th, 2012
The beginning of the end for the Twilight franchise is here, and, as expected, big money is being made by Lionsgate/Summit. While this installment doesn't look like it will break franchise records, Lionsgate is predicting a $141.3 million opening weekend, which will be the 8th-best of all time, assuming it holds up. New Moon will most likely remain the top opener for the franchise with $142.8 million, although it will be a close-run thing. Twilight will most likely end up the 5th-highest-grossing franchise at the domestic box office, behind only the "box office gods", Harry Potter, Star Wars, Batman and James Bond.
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November 15th, 2012
As The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2 prepares to re-write the record book, it would be easy to overlook the rest of the top five. However, there are a few other films of note. Firstly, Lincoln, which is expanding this weekend and will nearly be at the truly wide level. Nearly everyone thinks this film will grab a spot in the top five. Also, despite a lot of people predicting Breaking Dawn will break records, a lot of people think Skyfall will hold up pretty well over the weekend. By comparison, last year, Breaking Dawn, Part 1 had an impressive opening, but it was the only thing about the weekend that was impressive, as Happy Feet 2 crashed and burned. There's a slim chance Breaking Dawn, Part 2 will open with more than the combined openings of those two films. Adding in Skyfall and 2012 should come out with a major win this week.
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