Friday Estimates: Solo Remains Tops, Adrift Floats, Action Sinks
June 2, 2018
As expected, Solo: A Star Wars Story earned top spot on Friday with $8.15 million. We predicted it would earn about $30 million and it looks like that’s the case, although it’s on track for the lower end of that range, with a $29 million sophomore stint. If it recovers next weekend, then it will remain on pace for $200 million domestically. However, getting to that milestone is more about saving face than breaking even at this point. Even if the film’s reviews help it become a hit on the home market, it’s not going to break even any time soon. Fortunately, The Last Jedi made enough profits that Disney will still be happy with the overall results of the franchise. Plus there’s always merchandising, something the Star Wars films helped perfect.
Deadpool 2 will be relatively close behind with $23 million after earning $6.5 million on Friday. The film should reached $300 million domestically, but it might need a small push from Fox to get there. Even if it doesn’t reach that mark, it has already made enough worldwide to break even.
Adrift was the biggest of the new releases, earning third place with $4.23 million, which means it should match our original $12 million prediction and not the more enthusiastic prediction we came up with after the previews came out. This is the third week in a row where the biggest new release of the week had better than expected previews, only to sink from that high once Friday’s numbers came in. This might be a minor blip, or it might mean we are overestimating the power of the previews based on past results. As for the film’s long-term chances, its reviews are fine, but it only managed a B from CinemaScore. That suggests relatively short legs.
Infinity War actually beat expectations with $2.8 million on Friday, putting it on pace for just over $10 million over the weekend. It will have no trouble getting to $650 million domestically, but this is very likely the last weekend it will spend in the top five.
Upgrade also beat expectations with $1.67 million on Friday, putting it on pace for just over $4 million for the weekend. Normally this would be a disaster, but it is playing in just 1,400 theaters, so it is not as bad as it could have been. The reviews are excellent, but the film’s opening was too small to get a rating from CinemScore, so it is not known if the audiences are reacting the same way. It will likely have to wait until the home market to reach its full audience, perhaps even until it gets to streaming services like Netflix.
Action Point, on the other hand, is a disaster. It is expected to earn just a hair over $2 million... not on Friday, over the full weekend. It earned just $790,000 on Friday. Combine this with just 18% positive reviews and a lowly C plus from CinemaScore and its legs will likely be really short. For that matter, theater owners will be looking to drop this film as soon as they are contractually able to, so even if its legs are good, it won’t stick around in theaters for long.
- Adrift Comparisons
- Action Point Comparisons
- Upgrade Comparisons
Filed under: Friday Estimates, Avengers: Infinity War, Solo: A Star Wars Story, Deadpool 2, Action Point, Upgrade, Adrift, Star Wars