Weekend Predictions: Ocean’s 8 Looks to Steal Top Spot

June 7, 2018

Ocean’s 8

Ocean’s 8 leads a trio of new releases this week and it might be the only one to reach the top five. It is certainly the only one competing for first place. Hereditary is earning amazing reviews, but it is an art house horror movie and those tend to struggle at the box office. Finally there’s Hotel Artemis, which is earning the quietest buzz of the three releases. Solo: A Star Wars Story and Deadpool 2 should remain strong helping the overall box office. However, while this year’s new releases are better than last year’s new releases, with Wonder Woman’s sophomore stint, 2018 is going to suffer another loss. Next week will be better.

Ocean’s 8 is a delayed sequel / reboot to the Ocean’s Eleven franchise, but with a gender-bent cast. The reviews were hovering around the 75% positive level, but have since slipped to 72% positive. That’s still good for a potential blockbuster. The buzz is loud enough that an opening of just over $40 million seems likely and that would put it on pace for $100 million during its domestic run. I’m not convinced it will be able to match that internationally, but if it does get to $200 million worldwide, then it will break even early in its home market run, thus justifying a sequel or two.

Solo: A Star Wars Story should be next with about $14 million over the weekend for a three-week total of $175 million. The film is on pace for $200 million domestically and about $400 million worldwide. It’s not a disaster, but a disappointment.

Deadpool 2 will be next with about $12 million during its third weekend of release. The film already has $600 million worldwide, which is more than enough to break even, so anything it earns from now on is pure profit.

Hereditary is A24’s wide release as it is opening in nearly 3,000 theaters. It is also earning amazing reviews and that could help it at the box office. However, it is art house horror and as we’ve seen in the past with films like It Comes at Night and The Witch, these films often can’t live up to their reviews. That said, it wouldn’t be complete shock if competes for second place with around $14 million, but it could also struggle to reach the top five with $5 million. I’m going with an opening of just over $8 million, which puts it solidly in fourth place.

Infinity War and Adrift will be in a close race for fifth place with $6 million, more or less. For Infinity War, this will be enough to overtake Jurassic World for fifth place on the All-Time domestic chart.

Hotel Artemis is only the third film released by Global Road. The first two films, Midnight Sun and Show Dogs, were not box office hits. This film is earning positive reviews, but it is unlikely to become Global Road’s first box office hit. In fact, there are many who think it will open below the Mendoza Line. If it avoids this fate, it could open in the top five. However, that seems unlikely and $3 million might be asking too much.

- Ocean’s 8 Comparisons
- Hereditary Comparisons
- Hotel Artemis Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Avengers: Infinity War, Solo: A Star Wars Story, Midnight Sun, Deadpool 2, Ocean’s 8, Show Dogs, Hereditary, Adrift, Hotel Artemis