Weekend Estimates: Aquaman and Entire Top Five have a Repeat Performance
December 30, 2018
It has been an even more predictable weekend than expected, as every film in the top five finished in the same order as last weekend. This includes Aquaman topping the chart with an estimated $51.55 million over the weekend for a ten-day total of $188.79 million. It will cross $200 million shortly and overtake A Star is Born as Warner Bros.’ biggest domestic hit of the year. Internationally, the film added $85.4 million this weekend to push its global running tally to just shy of $750 million at $748.8 million. It is already ahead of Man of Steel and Suicide Squad on the DCEU chart and should soon step into first place.
Mary Poppins Returns is performing at the high end of expectations with $28.02 million for a two-week total of $98.93 million. It will match its $130 million production budget shortly and it is on pace to break even, but this is well below earlier expectations. It also earned $28.9 million internationally for a total of $74.4 million, despite playing in less than two thirds of the international marketplace. Unfortunately, the film isn’t equally successful everywhere. The U.K. represents $29.6 million of that total, while the film has managed $11.2 million in Italy so far. After that, it is a pretty big drop to any other countries, which doesn’t bode well for its future openings.
Bumblebee will remain in third place with $20.5 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $66.8 million. The film will have no trouble topping its $102 million production budget domestically. Meanwhile, it is doing even better internationally with $45.7 million this weekend for a total of $90 million. The film has yet to open in China, so its international numbers could triple its domestic box office, if it is a success in that market.
Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse is earning fourth place with $18.32 million over the weekend, pushing its running tally to $103.64 million domestically. It also cracked $100 million internationally, with $27.4 million this weekend and $109.6 million so far. The film is running out of major markets to open in, but $250 million worldwide is still an easy goal to reach.
The Mule is earning fifth place with $11.78 million over the weekend for a total of $60.74 million so far. It is getting lost in the crowd of much larger films, but it has already topping its $50 million production budget and isn’t done yet.
Vice will open in sixth place with $7.79 million over the weekend for a total of $17.70 million since Christmas Day. Its weekend total is actually lower than predicted, but it managed to place higher due to much weaker competition.
That much weaker competition was Holmes and Watson, which is only earning an estimated $7.3 million. It barely earned more over the weekend than it did on Christmas Day. This is what happens when a film earns a single-digit Tomatometer Score and a D plus from CinemaScore.
Second Act is also missing expectations, but by a much closer margin, with an projected $7.21 million over the weekend. Its two-week total is $21.76 million, which is already more than it cost to make. Depending on how much STX Entertainment got for the international rights, it could break even before it reaches the home market.
On the other hand, Welcome to Marwen will lose money. If estimates hold, then it will fall to 14th place over the weekend with $2.23 million for a two-week total of $7.77 million. It could have made that total during its opening weekend and it would have still been seen as a mild disappointment.
On the limited release front, a Bollywood film, Simmba, is earning $1.73 million in just over 300 theaters. Stan and Ollie is not as impressive with just under $80,000 in five theaters. Its theater average is better at $15,935, but it needed to do better to get noticed by Awards Season voters. The two Christmas Day releases did better, with On the Basis of Sex earning an average of $20,909 in 33 theaters and Destroyer earning an average of $19,491 in three.
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Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Aquaman, Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse 3D, Bumblebee, A Star is Born, Vice, Holmes & Watson, Welcome to Marwen, Destroyer, Second Act, On the Basis of Sex, The Mule, Stan & Ollie, Simmba, DC Extended Universe