Weekend Estimates: Dragons Roar, Holdovers Can’t Soar
February 24, 2019
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World isn’t quite matching Friday’s projections, but it is still dominating the weekend box office with an estimated $55.53 million Friday through Sunday, and $58.03 million in total if you include the paid previews. This is by far the biggest opening of the year, topping Glass by $15 million and the film is already in the top five for 2019. Internationally, it debuted in first place in Russia with $11.2 million, pushing its weekend haul to $34.7 million, while its international running tally rose to $216.9 million. It is already the biggest worldwide hit of the year, at least it is the biggest Hollywood hit at the global box office. So far that chart is dominated by Chinese films, but that’s common, as Chinese New Year usually results in a few films earning over $100 million at the box office during that week alone.
Alita: Battle Angel also topped Friday’s projections with $12.0 million during its sophomore stint for a two-week total of $60.7 million. This is a steeper drop-off than we were expecting, but in retrospect, an Anime adaptation is a prime target for the Fanboy Effect. The film might match that running tally at the Chinese box office during its opening weekend over there, which would go a long way to saving face, but it is too little, too late to help the film break even.
The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part is also falling faster than anticipated, down to $10.02 million over the weekend. Direct competition is clearly to blame here. That said, the film is still on pace for $100 million domestically. Unfortunately, the film is also struggling internationally with $10.3 million this weekend for a running tally of $53.0 million. This includes a $1.2 million opening in France. Furthermore, the film’s only major market left is Australia, so it is really running out of time to turn things around. If it can get to $200 million worldwide, then it will break even, eventually.
Fighting With My Family is not quite matching expectations with an estimated $8 million over the weekend. However, it did bounce back better than anticipated on Saturday, so that could mean longer than average legs overall. Additionally, the film only cost $11 million to make and the Global rights only cost $17.5 million to purchase, so this isn’t a bad start. If it can do as well internationally and on the home market, then it will make a healthy profit. Its 90% positive reviews and its A from CinemaScore do suggest its word-of-mouth will be a major asset and help it find an audience on the home market.
Isn’t It Romantic is rounding out the top five with $7.51 million. Again, this is a faster decline than we were anticipating, but it is still on pace to reach $50 million domestically, which should be enough to break even relatively early in the film’s home market run.
On the limited release front, Run the Race just managed to grab a spot in the top ten, according to estimates, with $2.27 million. A lot of faith-based films recently have missed the Mendoza Line, so this isn’t a bad start. I am more impressed by Total Dhamaal, which earned $950,000 in 185 theaters. This is better than the previous two films in the franchise earned combined.
- How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World Comparisons
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- Fighting With My Family Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Estimates, How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part, Glass, Alita: Battle Angel, Isn’t it Romantic, Fighting With My Family, Run the Race, Total Dhamaal, Dhamaal