Weekend Estimate: Skywalker Heads Earthwards
December 29, 2019
The weekend isn’t looking good for Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, as it is falling a lot faster than I expected. If estimates hold, it will fall 59% to $72.0 million over the weekend for a running tally of $361.8 million after two weeks of release. However, this is still a massive amount of money. It is already the seventh-biggest hit released in 2019, and is on pace to earn third place on that chart, maybe even second. Internationally, the film added $94.3 million in 52 markets for a running tally of $363.0 million internationally and $724.8 million worldwide. That’s without any earnings from South Korea, where it will debut in a couple of weeks. It should have no trouble getting to $1 billion worldwide by the end of its run, but most were expecting a lot more than that. It is yet another profitable disappoint—and we saw too many of those in 2019.
Jumanji: The Next Level improved upon the projections based on the Friday estimates, earning $35.3 million over the three-day weekend for a total of $175.5 million after three weeks of release. The film is pulling in $61.6 million on 15,700 screens in 62 markets internationally for totals of $296 million internationally and $472 million worldwide. It has already made enough to ensure another installment in the franchise and it will clearly last long enough to reach a few more milestones domestically and internationally.
Little Women is opening in third place, maybe, with $16.53 million over the three-day weekend for a five-day debut of $29.00 million. If you take into account its reviews and its Awards Season success so far, then it is safe to assume the film will have long enough legs to be a financial success early in its home market run. Additionally, any success on Oscar night will only boost its financial prospects. The film opened in just a couple of international markets, earning $4.6 million in the U.K. and $1.6 million in Spain. It is too soon to tell how well it will do internationally, but I remain cautiously optimistic.
Frozen II was right behind with $16.5 million over the three-day weekend. In fact, it is so close behind Little Women that I wouldn’t be surprised if the two films switch positions when the final numbers come in. If this estimate holds, then the film’s running tally will rise to $421.3 million after six weeks of release. Internationally, the film added $42.2 million in 53 markets and its has now pulled in $796.3 million internationally and $1.218 billion worldwide. The film has almost topped the original on the worldwide chart and it will have no problem getting there shortly.
Spies in Disguise matched yesterday’s projections, with $13.2 million over the three-day weekend giving it a total opening of $22.1 million over five. There’s no new direct competition for a couple of weeks, so that should help its legs, as will its reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore. Internationally, the movie is earning $16.0 million in 32 markets, led by Mexico ($2.3 million) and France ($2.2 million), with the U.K. close behind ($1.9 million).
Uncut Gems bounced back over the weekend and is now earning an estimated $9.55 million over the three-day weekend for a five-day weekend of $20.00 million and a total of $21.07 million including its limited release run. Audiences are not loving this movie as much as critics did, as it only has a C plus from CinemaScore, but I think this is because the film isn’t what they were expecting.
- Friday Estimates
- Weekend Box Office Chart
- 2019 Domestic Box Office Chart
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- Weekend Predictions
- Christmas Releses
- Theater Counts
- Friday Box Office Chart
- Christmas Day Box Office Chart
- Fastest to $300 million
- Fastest to $400 million
Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Frozen II, Spies in Disguise, Uncut Gems, Jumanji: The Next Level, Little Women, Jumanji