Friday Estimates: Audiences Turn Away from New Releases

January 25, 2020

Bad Boys for Life

Bad Boys for Life remained in first place earning $8.93 million on Friday, down 62% from its opening Friday. This is significantly better than anticipated and it means the film could fall less than 50% during the full weekend. Regardless, the film will reach $100 million domestically tonight, becoming the first film released in 2020 to get to that milestone. Obviously it won’t be the last.

1917 will easily take second place over the full weekend after earning $4.02 million. This is also a little better than expected and should help the film reach $100 million over the weekend, making it the last film released in 2019 to get to that milestone.

The Gentlemen started in third place, but I don’t think it will stay there for long, as it only managed $3.72 million on Friday. This is a little softer than our prediction and weaker than projections based on Thursday previews, in part due to weaker audience reactions. The film’s reviews are good, but its B plus from CinemaScore are mediocre for this type of film. It’s not bad enough to kill the film’s legs, but it is enough to explain its shorter than expected legs. Also, Bad Boys for Life did hold on better than expected and the two films do share a large percentage of their target audiences. Fortunately, STX Entertainment only spent $7 million acquiring the distribution rights to the movie and even with an estimated $25 million P&A budget, this start could be enough to break even late in its home market run.

Dolittle landed in fourth place with $2.74 million on Friday. Good news, as a family film, it should bounce back over the rest of the weekend and come within a rounding error of our $12 million prediction.

The Turning opened in fifth place, but it likely won’t stay there for long. The movie earned $2.51 million, which isn’t great news, but things get worse. Not only are the film’s reviews terrible, the movie earned an F-rating from CinemaScore. Before the start of the year, only 19 movies had ever earned an F-rating from CinemaScore, but we’ve already had two such movies released this year, as The Grudge also earned that distinction.

- Friday Box Office Chart
- Thursday Box Office Chart

- Thursday Previews
- Weekend Predictions
- Theater Counts

- 2019 Domestic Chart
- 2020 Domestic Chart

Filed under: Friday Estimates, Bad Boys For Life, Dolittle, The Grudge, The Turning, The Gentlemen, 1917