2020 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Adapted Screenplay

February 6, 2020

Jojo Rabbit

Our annual Oscar Prediction contest is underway so now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. We are continuing our shortened schedule with Best Adapted Screenplay. We have yet another close race. True, there is a favorite, or to be more accurate, a close two-way race, but none of the nominees can really be called long shots.

(Note: All previous awards listed are only for writing and not other categories. However, they are for both original, adapted, and combined writing categories, depending on the award in question. Previous awards and nominations are for theatrical and not TV programs, on the other hand. )

Best Adapted Screenplay

Greta Gerwig for Little Women
Tomatometer Score: 95% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: BAFTA and WGA
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Writer's Previous Major Nominations: One Oscar, One BAFTA, One Golden Globe, One WGA, One Film Independent Spirit Awards
Writer's Previous Major Wins: One Film Independent Spirit Awards
Notes: Greta Gerwig was snubbed for the Best Director Oscar, so her winning for Best Adapted Screenplay would bring a sense of justice to Oscar night. It could happen and many think she’s in a very close race for the Oscar.

Anthony McCarten for The Two Popes
Tomatometer Score: 89% Positive
Movie’s Previous Major Nominations: BAFTA and Golden Globe
Movie’s Previous Major Wins: None
Writer’s Previous Major Nominations: One Oscar and One BAFTA
Writer’s Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: This is the smallest film on this year’s list and it hasn’t won any previous awards, so it would be a surprise if it took home the Oscar. That said, if it did win, I seriously doubt it would be the biggest upset of the night. It is a very close race.

Todd Phillips and Scott Silver for Joker
Tomatometer Score: 68% Positive
Movie’s Previous Major Nominations: BAFTA and WGA
Movie’s Previous Major Wins: None
Writers’ Previous Major Nominations: Two Oscars, One BAFTA, Two Golden Globes, Two WGAs
Writers’ Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: This film has 68% positive reviews. Why are we talking about its chances of winning an Oscar for writing? I can see an acting performance transcending a weak script, but how can an Oscar-worthy script get turned into a film with only 68% positive reviews?

Taika Waititi for Jojo Rabbit
Tomatometer Score: 80% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: BAFTA and WGA
Movie's Previous Major Wins: BAFTA and WGA
Writer's Previous Major Nominations: None
Writer's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: This film’s reviews are on the low side for an Oscar-winning movie. That said, the film did win at both the BAFTAs and the WGAs, so it has an excellent shot at winning the Oscar as well. In fact, it is the favorite, albeit by a very narrow margin.

Steven Zaillian for The Irishman
Tomatometer Score: 96% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: BAFTA, Golden Globes, and WGA
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Writer's Previous Major Nominations: Four Oscars, Four BAFTAs, Two Golden Globes, and Six WGA
Writer's Previous Major Wins: One Oscar, One BAFTA, One Golden Globes, and One WGA
Notes: If The Irishman wins in a wave, then this is one of the categories that will get swept up in said wave. It has a lot going for it, except for being passed over during all three previous major Awards Season ceremonies. Maybe if Steven Zaillian had not won for Schindler’s List, then this film’s chances would be a lot better, as the Oscar voters would be looking to give him a make-up Oscar.

Conclusion: I think Taika Waititi will win for Jojo Rabbit, but if Greta Gerwig wins for Little Women, I would hardly call it an upset. In fact, the race is so close than none of the films winning would really be considered much of an upset.


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Filed under: Awards Season, The Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Little Women, The Two Popes, Greta Gerwig, Todd Phillips, Steven Zaillian, Taika Waititi, Anthony McCarten, Scott Silver