December preview: Wonder Woman heralds the end of the theatrical window (for now?)
December 1, 2020
The worst year for the movie theatrical industry in a century will end with a series of releases that might define the business for the next decade. Only three of the major studios are daring to release films in theaters during what is shaping up to be the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Sony Pictures is going the traditional route with Monster Hunter getting an exclusive theatrical release on Christmas Day. Universal’s deals with AMC and Cinemark to allow shortened theatrical windows in return for sharing PVOD revenue have prompted it and its specialty division Focus Features to release four films this holiday season. But all eyes (or many of them, anyway) will be on Warner Bros.’ release of Wonder Woman 1984 simultaneously in theaters and on HBO Max.
When the studio announced this release strategy back on November 18 there was speculation that, if it worked out well, they might do the same thing with some of their other upcoming films. Today they threw caution to the wind and announced that all of the studio’s 2021 films will be released in theaters and on HBO Max at the same time (in territories where HBO Max is available). While we’re still digesting the news, here are three quick takes on the rationale for Warner Bros. to make this bold leap.
First, and most obviously, the theatrical market is in a terrible state right now, with weekly earnings down about 90% from normal. The arrival of vaccines that might bring the COVID-19 pandemic under control is of course very promising news, but it will take some time to bring the caseload down and for the market to start to recover. If we assume things start to pick up again in March, then we might see the market return to whatever the “new normal” is about six months after that, based on the study I carried out back in August. That means any movie released before October is likely to under-perform at the box office by normal standards. After having little to show for 2020, the studios are obviously anxious to start releasing films again.
In normal times, the theater owners would push back strongly against dropping the traditional theatrical window, but even if they’re not happy with Warner Bros.’ plan, there’s not much exhibitors can do. The negotiating position for theater chains has traditionally been taking some short-term pain (e.g., by not showing a movie), in order for long-term gain (such as preserving the length of the theatrical window). Right now, the theater operators are battling for survival from day to day, and having a film like Wonder Woman 1984 to show, even if it’s already available in the home market, is a lifeline they could do with.
The second thing that Warner Bros.’ decision shows is how important they see the subscription streaming market. The conventional wisdom is that there will end up being three, maybe four, major streaming services that most consumers will subscribe to, and lots of also-rans. As of today, Netflix and Disney+ look like they will be two out of those three/four, and the window is closing to stake a serious claim as a leading platform. With Apple TV and Amazon Prime having some momentum, and the likes of Hulu and Peacock waiting in the wings, Warner Bros. sees that now’s the time to invest heavily in HBO Max, and forgoing some box office earnings that might be fairly low anyway isn’t such a huge price to pay for having a streaming line-up in 2021 that arguably can’t be matched.
Which takes us to the third reason this makes sense for Warner Bros.: it probably won’t cost them much. Although their 2021 slate is strong, the studio doesn’t have a sure-fire franchise right now. Wonder Woman is arguably their strongest property at the moment, so once the decision was made for that film it became easier to make the same call, on a film-by-film basis, for the other films slated to come out in 2021.
Looking at those titles specifically, Warner Bros. has a big list of films that are aiming to start or restart franchises: Mortal Kombat (assuming it comes out at some point in 2021), Tom and Jerry, Space Jam: A New Legacy, Dune, The Matrix 4, and Sherlock Holmes 3 all fall into that category. Launching those films in a way that will maximize the audience, even if it costs some theoretical future box office dollars, makes sense. Once the new market has emerged—probably in late 2021—the studio can start planning the sequels for exclusive theatrical runs, if that makes sense, or look at spin-offs and serializations of new stories on HBO Max.
Finally, this decision only applies to countries where HBO Max is currently available. The service is due to launch in Latin America and some European markets, including Spain and the Nordics, in 2021. Its rollout in other countries is complicated by existing deals with local channels. So these films will mostly be playing exclusively in theaters in most countries, and that’s where the box office action is likely to be for most of 2021.
In all, it looks as though Warner Bros., and home-bound movie fans in the United States are going to be the big winners from this new plan. And it’s too early to declare the death of the theatrical window. If Wonder Woman 1984 is a huge success, there’s no reason why the next installment in the franchise can’t be released exclusively in theaters in a few years time. While theaters can claim with some justification that they will be hurt by Warner Bros.’ decision, it’s hard to argue that this move is the difference between life and death for them. After all, it’s better to be able to show something rather than nothing, and Warner Bros. just gave them some certainty going forwards, even if they’ll be competing to persuade movie fans to go to theaters to see the same film they could watch at home.
Jennifer Carter and Solomon Chau are a sweet, fun-loving, newly-engaged couple whose whole life seems ahead of them. But when Sol is diagnosed with terminal liver cancer in December, their plans for a summer wedding become impossible. In a race against time, Jenn and Sol’s friends and family launch an online fundraiser to help the couple create their dream wedding in just two weeks. In the process, they unleash an outpouring of generosity and attention from people around the world who want to celebrate the power of love with them. Through it all, Jenn and Sol’s commitment to each other only deepens, becoming a heartwarming reminder that the strength of true love knows no limits.
The pandemic hasn’t been kind to films with strong romantic themes, with The Broken Hearts Gallery earning a modest $5 million, and 2 Hearts just $1.3 million. Those films debuted in 2,209 and 1,683 theaters respectively, and All My Life is set to play in a 970 locations this weekend, which makes $5 million an ambitious target. Perhaps the holiday season, the pairing of Jessica Rothe and Harry Shum Jr., and a lack of competition will help give it the legs it’ll need to make that kind of money.
Renato is a successful Mexican aviation executive who is shocked to discover he has an American half-brother he never knew about, the free-spirited Asher. The two very different half-brothers are forced on a road journey together masterminded by their ailing father, tracing the path their father took as an immigrant from Mexico to the US.
Comedies have been a rare sight in theaters during the pandemic, and Hispanic comedies non-existent. That makes this a hard film to analyze, to say the least. It is playing in 1,369 theaters, which makes it technically the widest new release this weekend. That’s not a lot of theater though, and its reviews aren’t looking particularly good. However, The Croods: A New Age drew a big Hispanic audience over Thanksgiving, which might help Half Brothers to out-perform. An opening around $1 million, and $3 million in total seems like a safer bet.
After a three-week lull in new wide releases, Christmas weekend is shaping up to be interesting, with a grand total of four films arriving in theaters. That might be more than the market can bear, but they might be able to do steady business going into the New Year, and won’t have any existing releases to compete against.
Behind our world, there is another: a world of dangerous and powerful monsters that rule their domain with deadly ferocity. When Lt. Artemis and her elite unit are transported through a portal from our world to a new world, they are in for the shock of their lives. In her desperate attempt to get home, the brave lieutenant encounters a mysterious hunter, whose unique skills have allowed him to survive in this hostile land. Faced with relentless and terrifying attacks from the monsters, the warriors team up to fight back and find a way home.
Sony might have given a December 25 date for this movie on the assumption that Wonder Woman 1984 would move somewhere else. It is certainly going to have an uphill battle to get any traction, but perhaps can benefit from sold-out Wonder Woman shows if theater seating is severely limited in some regions. It also has the star power and pedigree to have a shot at doing OK, and could have a long run, given the relative lack of competition more broadly. $20 million seems like a good compromise, but it assumes the movie will be hit hard by increased pandemic lockdowns and competition with Wonder Woman. Maybe it can break out beyond that.
Five years after the end of the Civil War, Captain Jefferson Kyle Kidd, a widower and veteran of three wars, now moves from town to town as a non-fiction storyteller, sharing the news of presidents and queens, glorious feuds, devastating catastrophes, and gripping adventures from the far reaches of the globe. In the plains of Texas, he crosses paths with Johanna, a 10-year-old taken in by the Kiowa tribe six years earlier and raised as one of their own. Johanna, hostile to a world she’s never experienced, is being returned to her biological aunt and uncle against her will. Kidd agrees to deliver the child where the law says she belongs. As they travel hundreds of miles into the unforgiving wilderness, the two will face tremendous challenges of both human and natural forces as they search for a place that either can call home.
This is a classic Tom Hanks holiday season drama, from director Paul Greengrass, who made Captain Phillips with Hanks seven years ago. Universal is probably thinking of this as a good PVOD play in the New Year, and it seems unlikely to draw big crowds in theaters. A battle with Monster Hunter for second place over the holidays looks likely.
Everyone said Cassie was a promising young woman... until a mysterious event abruptly derailed her future. But nothing in Cassie’s life is what it appears to be: she’s wickedly smart, tantalizingly cunning, and she’s living a secret double life by night. Now, an unexpected encounter is about to give Cassie a chance to right the wrongs of the past.
An Oscar nomination for Carey Mulligan seems like a safe bet, but this movie looks badly timed. Under normal circumstances, this might be considered good counter-programming, but it the older audiences that a film like this might appeal to are the people most inclined to stay home right now.
I, Tonya seems like the closest recent film to compare to, and it earned $30 million at the domestic box office. A total of $10 million for Promising Young Woman seems like an upper bound.
Fast forward to the 1980s as Wonder Woman’s next big screen adventure finds her facing two all-new foes: Max Lord and The Cheetah.
This is the big film of Christmas, although the obvious question is how much its box office will be hurt by a simultaneous release on HBO Max. We won’t know the answer to that question until Warner Bros. releases box office results, which might not be until the New Year. In the absence of strong evidence one way or another, I’m going with a prediction of $50 million in total—basically the same as Tenet earned domestically. While the make up of the audience will be different, it seems reasonable to suppose that roughly the same number of people who were motivated enough to see Tenet in theaters will want the theatrical experience for Wonder Woman. A number much lower than that would be very bad news for theater owners.
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Weekend of December 4th, 2020
All My Life
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Distributor: Universal
Release Date: December 4th, 2020
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for brief language.
Source: Based on Real Life Events
Genre: Drama
Keywords:
Romance, Romantic Drama
Directed By: Marc Meyers
Written By: Todd Rosenberg
Starring: Jessica Rothe, Harry Shum Jr.
Box Office Potential: $5 million
Half Brothers
Distributor: Focus Features
Release Date: December 4th, 2020
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for some violence and strong language.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Comedy
Keywords:
Buddy Comedy, Unexpected Families, Dysfunctional Family, Road Trip
Directed By: Luke Greenfield
Written By: Eduardo Cisneros, Jason Shuman, Ali LeRoi, Eduardo Cisneros
Starring: Luis Gerardo Mendez, Connor Del Rio
Box Office Potential: $3 million
Weekend of December 25th, 2020
Monster Hunter
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Distributor: Sony Pictures
Release Date: December 25th, 2020
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for sequences of creature action and violence throughout
Source: Based on Game
Genre: Adventure
Keywords:
Directed By: Paul W.S. Anderson
Written By: Paul W.S. Anderson
Starring: Milla Jovovich, Tony Jaa
Production Budget: Reported at $60 million
Box Office Potential: $20 million
News of the World
Distributor: Universal
Release Date: December 25th, 2020
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for violence, disturbing
images, thematic material and some language.
Source: Based on Fiction Book/Short Story
Genre: Adventure
Keywords:
1870s, Civil War, Returning Soldiers, Native Americans, Adopted Family
Directed By: Paul Greengrass
Written By: Paul Greengrass, Luke Davies, Paulette Jiles
Starring: Tom Hanks, Helena Zengel
Box Office Potential: $20 million
Promising Young Woman
Distributor: Focus Features
Release Date: December 25th, 2020
MPAA Rating: R for strong violence including sexual assault, language throughout, some sexual material and drug use.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Black Comedy
Keywords:
Sundance Film Festival 2020
Directed By: Emerald Fennell
Written By: Emerald Fennell
Starring: Carey Mulligan
Box Office Potential: $10 million
Wonder Woman 1984
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Distributor: Warner Bros.
Release Date: December 25th, 2020
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for sequences of action and violence.
Source: Based on Comic/Graphic Novel
Genre: Action
Keywords:
3-D, IMAX: DMR
Directed By: Patty Jenkins
Written By: Patty Jenkins, Geoff Johns, David Callaham, Patty Jenkins, Geoff Johns
Starring: Gal Gadot
Box Office Potential: $50 million
Filed under: Monthly Preview, Monster Hunter, Wonder Woman 1984, Promising Young Woman, News of the World, Half Brothers, All My Life, Tom Hanks, Gal Gadot, Luke Greenfield, Paul Greengrass, Tony Jaa, Milla Jovovich, Carey Mulligan, Jason Shuman, Paul W.S. Anderson, Marc Meyers, Harry Shum Jr., David Callaham, Geoff Johns, Luis Gerardo Mendez, Patty Jenkins, Ali LeRoi, Luke Davies, Jessica Rothe, Emerald Fennell, Connor Del Rio, Eduardo Cisneros, Todd Rosenberg, Helena Zengel, Paulette Jiles