Weekend estimates: A Quiet Place sets new 2021 benchmark with 3-day $48.38 million
May 30, 2021
A Quiet Place: Part II is headed for a Memorial Day opening of close to $60 million, according to Paramount’s Sunday morning projections. The horror sequel is expected to pick up $48.38 million over three days, and $58 million over four, making it the biggest hit at the box office since theaters started reopening, handily beating Godzilla vs. Kong, which debuted with $32.2 million back in April. Cruella is well behind it in second place, but will top Tom and Jerry to become the best-performing post-pandemic family movie with a $21.3-million 3-day opening, and projected $26.5 million over four days.
Both films are performing well above our model’s predictions, which is an encouraging sign that audiences are returning to theaters.
Here’s the run-down of how the top six are performing compared to expectations.
A Quiet Place Part II looked like a winner from the moment it was first announced following the breakout success of the original Quiet Place back in 2018. Its path into theaters was of course massively disrupted by the pandemic, with its release date bouncing between March, 2020; September, 2020; April, 2021; as late as September, 2021 at one stage; and finally back to this Memorial Day. Paramount deserve credit for taking the plunge with a pure theatrical release for this film, and it has mostly paid off. Our model would have expected an opening around $70 million for a horror sequel like this under normal circumstances, and something around $25 million based on what has come before during the pandemic.
In theory, the long weekend should have boosted attendance, and growing numbers of vaccinated Americans and a downward trend in COVID cases should also encourage people to return to theaters. But the studio had to trust that theory would turn into practice. It should be a relief to everyone that we’re looking at such a positive result. The model estimates that A Quiet Place: Part II has reached 70% of its target audience this weekend, which is one of the best results of the pandemic for any film (only Wrath of Man has done better this year). The model’s cautious response to a single weekend’s result means that our overall pandemic adjustment only nudges up to 37%, but that looks likely to trend higher in the weeks to come.
One reason for confidence in the trend is that Cruella is also outperforming expectations. Prior to this weekend, the model thought that 49% of family audiences were coming to theaters. Cruella is estimated to have reached 67% of its audience—a very similar figure to A Quiet Place, and further confirmation that moviegoers are coming back. Our family movie adjustment is moving up to 50% in response, and it too seems likely to be on an upward trend.
The performance of the other films in the top six suggest that this weekend is driven quite substantially by the new releases. Raya and the Last Dragon is doing very well, which is another sign this is a more normal Memorial Day weekend, with a large contingent of family filmgoers. The other films are performing much more in line with expectations, most likely due to the competition.
Overall, we should see a four-day weekend safely over $100 million, which was the key benchmark I was looking at on Friday. We’re not nearly out of the woods yet, but theatrical business is, without question, heading in the right direction.
Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com
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Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Cruella, Godzilla vs. Kong, A Quiet Place: Part II, Raya and the Last Dragon, Tom and Jerry, Wrath of Man