Weekend predictions: The Batman won’t be troubled by newcomers, but Jujutsu Kaisen should finish second

March 18, 2022

The Batman isn’t in much danger of losing top spot at the box office this weekend, in spite of facing competition from four new wide releases. We could, however, see a new film in second place: Jujutsu Kaisen 0: The Movie looks set to post a weekend in the mid teens if it maintains its momentum from an excellent $2.88 million in previews on Thursday.

With four new wide releases, two of which posted preview figures, there’s a lot to analyze today, so I’ll get straight to it.

We don’t have much history to go on when it comes to wide anime releases, but at least we have some information now, and Jujutsu Kaisen’s preview numbers look very encouraging. It doesn’t look likely to top Demon Slayer: Mugen Train, but it should get somewhere in the mid teens this weekend, which will be easily enough for second place.

X looks like it might be more than living up to expectations based on its preview figures, although preview earnings under $1 million for horror movies tend not to be hugely predictive. As usual, our final prediction is a weighted average of the fundamentals prediction and previews prediction, which comes to $6.28 million. That would be a solid debut number for a horror movie at this time of year, although in line with A24’s other horror outings.

The Outfit has had a pretty quiet profile leading up to its release, and the model’s prediction feels high to me. Focus Features has an enviable track record though, and this will be a good test of whether older audiences are returning to theaters. A number closer to The Card Counter’s $1-million debut seems more likely, but I defer, as always, to what the model has to say.

Likewise, Umma will be doing well if it hits its predicted opening, I think. Its release, with little fanfare, in 805 theaters, and its competition this weekend, spells something more like $1 million in my opinion. This is a bit of an oddball release, given that Sony usually release horror movies in more like 2,500 to 3,000 theaters.

All told, the new releases could keep the market afloat this weekend, with the potential for only a small decline from last weekend’s $99-million top 10. I think The Outfit and Umma will underperform their predictions, but the strength of Jujutsu Kaisen and potentially X should give us another relatively strong week—great news as we head into a period with a run of bit new releases.

Bruce Nash

Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Batman, The Card Counter, X, The Outfit, Gekijouban Jujutsu Kaisen 0, Umma