Weekend predictions: Doctor Strange set for easy second-week win, $62.6 million the target

May 13, 2022

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

There’s really no competition at the box office this weekend for Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, which will cruise to a comfortable win in its second outing. Our model is predicting a steep decline from its $187-million debut, with a fall in ticket sales of around two thirds, and a $62.6-million weekend on the cards. The two new wide releases won’t come anywhere close to that, although they both come from production houses with excellent records in their particular niches.

Firestarter hails from horror stalwart Blumhouse, and is based originally on a book by Stephen King. That’s a great pedigree to be sure, but with the model using Blumhouse films that aren’t part of a franchise as its basis, an opening in the $5-million to $10-million range looks most likely. The best case scenario is probably for the film to come in second this weekend with perhaps $8 million, but less than $5 million isn’t out of the question given its relatively soft tracking.

Family Camp hails from faith-based stable Provident Films, the producers of War Room, Courageous, and Fireproof, among others.

This is their first foray into the realm of family comedy, which might bring down the opening weekend a little, although Family Camp is squarely aimed at Provident Films’ traditional audience. All in all, $2.1 million sounds like a slightly high prediction for this film, but the faith-based audience is a loyal one, and competition with The Bad Guys and Sonic the Hedgehog 2 may not drag it down much.

If Doctor Strange’s fall is as steep as expected, the overall market will be down a lot from last weekend, even with good holds expected for Everything Everywhere All At Once, Sonic the Hedgehog 2, and The Bad Guys. If everyone can come together for a weekend over $100 million, that would be a great result.

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, The Bad Guys, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Sonic the Hedgehog 2, Firestarter, Family Camp, Stephen King