Weekend predictions: Bullet Train favorite to top slow weekend

August 12, 2022

Bullet Train

The dog days of Summer are upon us. While there are three new wide releases this weekend, none of them are likely to challenge Bullet Train at the top of the chart. In fact, there’s a decent chance that the top seven will be identical to last week, with the new releases struggling to break into the top 10. There’s quite a bit of uncertainty though, and the new films could surprise, particularly given the lack of competition and their potential to reach niche audiences.

First up, here’s what our model thinks of the prospects for Bodies Bodies Bodies, which expands wide after opening in six theaters last weekend…

Distributor A24 has a fairly well-established track record of wide releases at this point, and usually aim to get films into around 2,500 theaters. This one is headed to about 1,200 this weekend, which sounds a little low to me. Are they trying to emulate the stellar performance of Everything Everywhere All At Once, which expanded into 1,250 theaters in its first national rollout? Or do they think this is more of niche movie? It’s hard to tell, frankly. Buzz is good for this one, but A24 has a habit of generating great buzz around their films, which the model reflects.

The bottom line is that this one could hit $4 million this weekend, but seems unlikely to get much higher than that.

Next up, a movie that is making a play for a fairly similar audience to Bodies…

In spite of playing in more theaters (1,548 vs. 1,200), the model thinks Fall will do a little less business this weekend. Its reviews are good though, and it comes from the same stable as the 47 Meters Down franchise, which had openings of $11.2 million (in June, 2017) and $8.4 million (this weekend in August, 2019), albeit from more theaters.

What drags Fall’s prediction below Bodies Bodies Bodies is the audience tracking, which has been considerably quieter in general, but picked up leading into the weekend. I have a hunch this one might do a bit better than the model is predicting, but I think its prospects also top out around $4 million.

Here’s what our model thinks about that top 10 as of Friday morning…

Bullet Train shouldn’t have too much trouble topping the chart this weekend, even with a steep drop from its last outing. The order of the films between two and six is hard to predict, and I can’t rule out something like Top Gun: Maverick hitting the top three again (that’s where it was on Thursday’s daily chart*). With the top ten generating less than $60 million this weekend, the order is fairly immaterial though… the bottom line is that the Summer season is drawing to an end.

Note that the top ten above doesn’t include Mack & Rita, which the model reckons will come in below $2 million. E.T. could also make a return to the top 10 as it’s being released in 389 IMAX theaters. We don’t have a model for that, but I can certainly see it doing as much as $3 million.

Addendum: In my hurry to post the predictions on Friday, I forget to note that Top Gun is back playing on premium screens this weekend. Our model doesn’t have a way to handle that scenario, and the prediction for Top Gun doesn’t factor that in. Thank you to reader Niles for pointing out the error.

Filed under: Weekend Preview, E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial, Bodies Bodies Bodies, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Bullet Train, Mack & Rita, Fall, 47 Meters Down