Weekend predictions: Shazam! could struggle to hit $30 million this weekend

March 17, 2023

Shazam! Fury of the Gods picked up $3.4 million from preview screenings on Thursday. That’s a lot less than the $9.225 million earned by Shazam! back in 2019, and points to an opening weekend for the latest movie in the DC Extended Universe that will fall well short of the $53.5 million earned by its predecessor. In fact, it might not make it to $30 million this weekend.

First, here’s what our model thought of Shazam! going into the weekend:

As has been the case over the past couple of weekends, the model’s core prediction is based on a very small number of comparable movies. Just one in this case, in fact. The first Shazam!’s $53.5 million is the equivalent of $42.36 million today, based on our model’s assessment of the current strength of the theatrical market, along with a small adjustment for the fact that this installment is playing in slightly fewer theaters on opening weekend.

The preview numbers suggest that earning over $40 million this weekend would be a real stretch though…

With a small number of exceptions, super hero movies earn less than 10 times their preview earnings over opening weekend, which makes $34 million a rough upper limit for Shazam!. If it performs as well through the weekend as Birds of Prey, it’ll come in with $28.1 million. For a truly heart-stopping comparison, Shazam!’s opening weekend multiplier was 5.8. If Fury of the Gods does that, it’ll open with just $19.72 million.

Overall, something around $30 million seems likely, but there’s a decent chance it’ll miss that mark. If it does fall short of $30 million this weekend, it’ll probably also struggle to make $100 million in total, which would be a very disappointing outcome for a movie in the world’s number two super hero franchise.

Also opening wide this weekend is Moving On, a comedy starring Lily Tomlin and Jane Fonda…

The obvious point of comparison for Moving On is 80 for Brady, which opened with $12.7 million in early February (the number in the table above is our model’s estimate of how that translates into a pre-pandemic number). Given its much smaller footprint, this outing for the comedy duo will almost certainly come in much lower than that.

If it hits 80 for Brady’s theater average this weekend, Moving On would make $2.58 million, so the model’s prediction is actually a bit higher in that sense. My gut feeling is that topping $2 million would be a good result, and that even a place in the top 10 could be considered a victory.

Here’s what that model thinks the top 10 will look like.

With Shazam! looking like it will fall short of expectations, we’ll have a down weekend at the box office this time around. The top 10 will struggle to deliver $100 million, but the market as a whole might still hit that milestone.

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Bruce Nash

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Shazam!, Shazam! Fury of the Gods, Champions, 80 for Brady, Moving On, DC Extended Universe, Jane Fonda, Lily Tomlin