Two desperate brothers attempt a robbery in order to pay for their dying mother’s health care. The job goes south and during their escape, they steal an ambulance. But things only get worse when they discover it's occupied by a dying heart patient.
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This week, the home market is led by The Fate of the Furious, which is the number one film both in terms of worldwide box office and alphabetically. It earned well over $1 billion worldwide, but it is losing the charm the franchise thrived on during the past few installments. As for the Pick of the Week, I’m going with Underground, Season Two, or the Two-Season box set.
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I’ve seen a lot of people attacking Rotten Tomatoes recently saying it is bad for the movie business. Some even point to Transformers: The Last Knight as proof that the site can ruin a film’s box office chances. Besides that charge, the other two main complaints I’m hearing over and over again are A.) Rotten Tomatoes is a very shallow site, especially the Tomatometer. And B.) It is killing in-depth critical examination of movies. I’ll tackle those claims below.
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May was a really soft month with only one unqualified hit, Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2, which is climbing towards $375 million domestically. The second biggest hit of the month will be Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales and I would be surprised if it tops $150 million by any serious margin. June looks a lot more profitable. There are five weeks and every week there is at least one film with a great shot at $100 million or more. In fact, there are four films with at least a decent shot at $200 million and we could double the number of $300 million hits released so far this year. Wonder Woman is widely expected to start the month with an explosive debut and pulling in more than $100 million during its opening weekend is more and more likely. That said, Despicable Me 3 will probably end up being the biggest hit overall with over $300 million. Meanwhile, Cars 3 and Transformers: The Last Knight are both aiming for $200 million. Last June was not particularly strong, outside of one hit. Finding Dory earned nearly $500 million domestically, while the second best film, Central Intelligence, barely earned a quarter of that. I don’t think any film will come close to Finding Dory, but there’s a lot more depth this time around and I have high hopes 2017 will extend its lead.
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As anticipated, Ride Along 2 earned first place over the long weekend earning more than it cost to make in just four days. The other two wide releases were less successful. Despite costing more to make, 13 Hours earned less than half Ride Along 2 opened with, while the less said about Norm of the North, the better. Star Wars: The Force Awakens was pushed into third place over the three-day weekend, but it rose to first place on the daily chart on Monday. It is not done yet. The overall, the three-day weekend was up 4.2% from last weekend; however, it was down 18% from last year. This is not surprising, as this weekend last year, American Sniper set the record for biggest January weekend. Year-to-date, 2016 has pulled in $693 million, giving 2016 an early lead over 2015. That lead was cut to 5.9% or $39 million and will likely be cut further next weekend. Hopefully it won't be entirely gone.
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Star Wars: The Force Awakens will finally relinquish its hold on the weekend box office and there are three new releases looking to grab as much of the box office share as they can. Ride Along 2 is the film with the best shot at first place, assuming its reviews don't kill it. The Revenant should have one of the best week-to-week declines, thanks in part to its Awards Season success. 13 Hours looks like a solid top-five film, but not a major hit, while Norm of the North is just hoping not to embarrass itself. This weekend last year, American Sniper expanded wide and set the record for biggest January weekend. That record fell earlier this year, but that's not a lot of comfort for this weekend, as all three new releases combined won't match American Sniper's haul. 2016's winning streak will end at two weeks. Hopefully the upcoming losing streak won't be much longer than that.
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2016 will begin the same way 2015 ended, with Star Wars: The Force Awakens on top. In fact, three of the five films that have the best shot at box office success in January are The Force Awakens, The Hateful Eight, and The Revenant, all of which opened in December. There are two true January releases that could also do really well, for this time of year: Ride Along 2 and Kung Fu Panda 3. The rest of the releases are just hoping to become midlevel hits. Last January, American Sniper dominated earning more than $300 million. Its success could prevent 2016 from being ahead in the year-over-year comparison by the end of the month, but this year does have better depth.
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If you look at our list of franchises, none have made more money in as few installments as Transformers has earned. On the other hand, if you look at the top ten franchises, none of them have earned as much critical scorn as the Transformers films have earned. Only the first one managed to come close to overall positive reviews. Depending on who you talk to, the most recent installment, Transformers: Age of Extinction, has been called the best of the sequels or the worst of the sequels. Which camp do I fall under?
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There is only one wide release of the week, but it is a potential monster hit. It is also potentially the last in a very profitable franchise. Transformers: Age of Extinction is the fourth film in the Transformers franchise, a franchise that has averaged more than $350 million at the box office. However, they have also averaged well below 50% positive reviews and the poor critical response could finally be taking its toll. It will still crush the competition this weekend, but it likely won't live up to past installments in the franchise. It will also beat last year's newreleases and more than double the first place film; however that might not be enough to save 2014. Last year there were five films that pulled in $20 million or more. This year there will be only one. In fact, there will be only four films that pull in $10 million or more.
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It is too soon to tell how May will end, as this story will be published before the weekend estimates came out. (Maleficent had an excellent start on Friday, unlike A Million Ways to Die in the West.) Overall, it was a good month with at least three movies that are on track to hit $200 million, but there was no really big winner for the month. It was nice and balanced. Unfortunately, last May there was a monster hit, Iron Man 3, and 2014 could not compete with that, so it lost ground to 2013. June hopes to turn things around and there are some reasons to be optimistic. All four weeks there is at least one film opening that at least has a shot at $100 million. There are even two films that at least have a shot at $300 million. Transformers: Age of Extinction should win the monthly box office race while How to Train Your Dragon 2 is a long shot to win, but I wouldn't be completely surprised if it did. Additionally, 22 Jump Street, Edge of Tomorrow, The Fault in Our Stars, and Think Like a Man 2 are all contenders for the century club. Not all of them will get to that milestone, but all of them at least have a short. Last June, there were three films that reached $200 million, including Man of Steel, which nearly reached $300 million. It looks like June of 2014 will be about as strong as June of 2013, more or less. If all films reach their potential, it could win the year-over-year comparison. Unless there are some shocking bombs, it shouldn't struggle so much that 2014 loses its lead over 2013 entirely.
PANIC! If you haven't finished your Christmas shopping yet, it is officially time to panic. Personally, I got the last of my shopping done on Wednesday, although I don't think the gift will arrive in time for Christmas. For those still looking for a last minute gift, Part IV of our Holiday Gift Guide focuses on books, CDs, and of course anything else I missed the first time around, beginning with...
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It's a terrible week on the home market. There's not a lot in terms of top sellers, although The Great Gatsby should lead the way. The only first-run release is Pain and Gain, which will likely not sell a lot on the home market. There are a few TV on DVD releases to fill in the gaps, like The Walking Dead or Elementary; however, by the end of the first page of new releases on Amazon.com, we run into filler. As for Pick of the Week, the best is The Many Adventures of Winnie the Pooh on Blu-ray Combo Pack. I'm still waiting for the screener, but it is such a good movie and it is slow week that it is still Pick of the Week.
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It is the final weekend before the Summer blockbuster season, which means the new releases this weekend are not prime releases. Pain and Gain at least has a shot at first place. Most think The Big Wedding won't crack $10 million during the weekend. The only good news is that last year was also a bad week at the box office. The biggest new release was The Pirates! Band of Misfits, which had to settle for second place with just $11.14 million, while Think Like a Man remained in first place with $17.60 million. I think 2013's one-two-punch will top 2012's one-two punch. However, last year had better depth and 2013 will again lose in the year-over-year comparison.
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March is over and while it is a little too soon to tell where a few films will end their box office runs, it is clear Oz The Great and Powerful won the month. Some films beat expectations to become midlevel hits, like The Call, but it wasn't a great month at the box office, especially compared to last year. This month, there are only seven wide releases spread over four weeks. Only one of those films, Oblivion, has a shot at being anything more than a midlevel hit. None of the other six releases look like they will come close to $100 million, but none of them look like obvious bombs either. (Although I do have my worries when it comes to Scary Movie 5.) Last April was even weaker with no film earning $100 million, although Think Like a Man did come relatively close. We might actually see growth on the year-over-year comparison. We'd better, because 2013 is behind 2012's pace by a huge margin at the moment and things will get worse when May arrives.
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