This graph shows Paul Rudd’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
The wait is over for fans of Ant-Man as the follow-up has finally made its way into theaters—4,345 of them to be exact. That makes it the 40th-widest release of all time, placing itself firmly in between two other franchise sequels, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 and Spider-Man: No Way Home. Its forerunners, Ant-Man, and Ant-Man and the Wasp started out in 3,856 and 4,206 theaters respectively. The third and latest installment of the franchise brings back Paul Rudd as the titular character, while containing a bevy of big name talent including Evangeline Lilly, Jonathan Majors, and Bill Murray, among others.
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Scott Lang and Hope van Dyne, along with Hope's parents, Hank Pym and Janet van Dyne, and Scott’s daughter, Cassie, are accidentally sent to the Quantum Realm. The family soon finds themselves exploring the Quantum Realm, interacting with strange new creatures, characters that Janet previously encountered, and embarking on an adventure that will push them beyond the limits of what they thought was possible.
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Scott Lang and Hope van Dyne, along with Hope's parents, Hank Pym and Janet van Dyne, and Scott’s daughter, Cassie, are accidentally sent to the Quantum Realm. The family soon finds themselves exploring the Quantum Realm, interacting with strange new creatures, characters that Janet previously encountered, and embarking on an adventure that will push them beyond the limits of what they thought was possible.
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It's Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This week we will tackle first run releases and franchise box sets as well. Unfortunately, 2018 has not been a good year for blockbusters for any studio not named Disney. In order to be on this list, a film has to be a major release, earn critical praise, and be on out DVD / Blu-ray and that’s a really short list this year. For example, Universal is the second best studio this year in terms of total domestic box office, but they’ve only released one film that has earned $100 million and overwhelmingly positive reviews. That film, Halloween doesn’t come out on DVD / Blu-ray till January. Most of the rest of the big six are lucky to have more than one entry on this week’s list.
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Ant-Man and the Wasp is the second film in the Ant-Man franchise and the 20th film in the MCU. I liked the first film more than the average critic, because I’m a huge fan of heist movies. This film won’t have the same heist angle, so will it not work with me as much?
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Like we did with The Force Awakens, we are going to do a spoiler-free, detail-free review for Avengers: Infinity War. In other words, we are going to rate all of the movies in the MCU to see where Infinity War and the rest fit into place.
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June was amazing, with two absolutemonster hits and a solid $100 million hit. By the end of the month, 2018’s lead over 2017 will be well over $500 million, or close to 10%. Even if 2018 only managed to maintain this lead in terms of raw numbers for the rest of the year, it will be a massive jump at the box office. As for July, there are a couple of potential monster hits, Ant-Man and the Wasp and Mission: Impossible—Fallout, plus four potential $100 million hits. Last July, there was only one monster hit, Spider-Man: Homecoming, and three$100 millionhits. I don’t think 2018 will match 2017 at the top, but 2018 appears to have more depth and that should put it a little ahead over the full month.
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There are not many limited releases on this week’s list and almost none of them have a real shot at mainstream success. That said, there are still several that are earning absolutely amazing reviews. The film with the best shot at mainstream success is probably Leave No Trace, with its 100% positive reviews. That said, I’m going to suggest something different, GLOW: Season Two on Netflix. It just started streaming today and I may have watched half of the season while working on this column.
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It is a slow week for limited releases and none of the films have a real shot at becoming a box office hit. Marlina the Murderer in Four Acts is earning the best reviews of the week, but it is a foreign-language film, so its box office chances are weak. Never Steady, Never Still is the film I’m most interested in. Its reviews are solid and it is also a Canadian movie.
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Ant-Man had the fourth worst global box office for a film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe. It earned over $500 million and was still the fourth worst in the franchise's run. That's impressive. One of the reasons for the franchise's success is the quality. No MCU film has earned a Tomatometer Score below the overall positive level, this includes Ant-Man. Is it worthy of this? Or is this the first MCU film I didn't like?
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June was a much better month than expected due to two films, Jurassic World and Inside Out. Had those two films merely matched expectations, then 2015 would have likely fallen behind 2014. As for this coming month, there are five weekends in July and each week there is at least one film with the potential to reach $100 million. Most weeks there are two films that at least have a shot at getting to the century mark. The biggest hit of the month will likely be Minions, which has already opened in several international markets and it's ahead of Despicable Me 2 at the same point. That film made more than $300 million and nearly $1 billion worldwide, so any growth would be fantastic. There are also a number of potential $200 million films, led by Ant-man. Ant-man is the latest release in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, a franchise that has averaged $300 million domestically over eleven films and all of the past six films have reached at least $200 million. I'm not saying this one is guaranteed to do the same, but you can't dismiss that possibility. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation and Pixels have smaller chances to get to $200 million, but you have to at least entertain the possibility. Additionally, last July was a lot weaker than this July looks to be, so 2015 should win in the year-over-year comparison most weeks. Or I might have let the box office success of June cloud my judgment. We will soon find out.
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Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy came out in theaters nearly a decade ago. It earned good reviews and did well at the box office managing nearly $90 million worldwide on a $25 million budget. However, it became a classic on the home market and many think it is among Will Ferrell's best movies. Rumors of a sequel persisted for quite a while before Anchorman: The Legend Continues finally came out. It earned better reviews and nearly doubled the first film's numbers at the worldwide box office. Is this because the quality is also better? Or did it unduly benefit from nearly ten years of demand?
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PANIC! If you haven't finished your Christmas shopping yet, it is officially time to panic. Personally, I got the last of my shopping done on Wednesday, although I don't think the gift will arrive in time for Christmas. For those still looking for a last minute gift, Part IV of our Holiday Gift Guide focuses on books, CDs, and of course anything else I missed the first time around, beginning with...
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We had some good news and some bad news in November. The bad news is the overall weakness at the box office continued and 2013 lost its lead over 2012. Strong runs by The Hunger Games: Catching Fire and Frozen did help it bounce back in the end, but 2013 is still going to have a tough time topping 2012. Looking forward to December, we find about a dozen wide releases, sort of. There are several films that are opening in limited release that are expected to expand wide by the end of the month, but I'm not sure that will be the case for all of them. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug should be the easy winner this month and if it is a little lucky, it might even top its predecessor at the box office. There is a huge amount of hype surrounding Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues and it could double the first film's box office numbers. On the other hand, those two films might be the only two December wide releases to reach $100 million. There are a few that have the potential to get to the century mark, if they are big players during Awards Season. Obviously some of the films coming out this month will win awards, but there's already a lot of competition in theaters before the month begins. There were three $100 million movies last December, led by The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, so while it could be close, it looks like December will lose in the year-over-year comparison. This is really bad news, as 2013 can't afford to go out on a losing streak if it wants to top 2012.
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There are ten limited releases on this week's list, but only one of them is earning overwhelmingly positive reviews. Let the Fire Burn is the standout, with a 92% positive response. The Summit is earning 73% positive reviews, which is good, but not great. Then there's Grace Unplugged, which is opening in more than 500 theaters, but with no reviews. That's a horrible combination. Overall, there's nothing that jumps out as a potential limited release hit.
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It is not a good week for limited releases with a couple of higher profile releases failing to win over critics. Lovelace had been earning a lot of buzz before its release, but the reviews suggest it won't be able to capitalize on this buzz. On the other hand, In a World is earning surprisingly strong reviews and it does have a lot of name recognition in the cast, so hopefully it will thrive.
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As expected, The Croods earned first place, but it didn't dominate as much as many thought it would, because Olympus Has Fallen did better than expected. The overall box office rose 29% from last weekend reaching $139 million. Unfortunately, again as expected, The Hunger Games earned more this weekend last year than the entire box office earned this year. The year-over-year decline was a massive 35%. That's stunning. That usually only happens when there is a misalignment in holidays. Year-to-date, 2013 is now behind 2012 by a 13% margin at $2.06 billion to $2.36 billion. Given the films coming out later this year and the films that came out last year, I just don't see a pathway to victory for 2013.
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This is one of those weekends where it is really hard to get excited about the box office. That's not to say there's nothing opening that isn't either earning good reviews or has a solid shot at the box office, there are. However, this weekend last year is the weekend The Hunger Games debuted. No film opening this weekend will compete with that. The entire box office this year won't make as much as that one film made last year. 2013 is going to be crushed in the year-over-year comparison and it could be more than a little depressing. As for this year, The Croods should walk away with the number one ranking and might even make more than twice as much as the number two film, which will probably be Olympus Has Fallen. The last new release of the week is Admission, but it might not make the top five. In fact, Spring Breakers is expanding to a little more than 1,000 theaters, but still has a better shot at the top five than Admission has.
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This is 40 is a spin-off from Knocked-Up, which remains Judd Apatow's biggest hit and one of his most loved films. It had high expectations associated with it, but it failed to live up to them. Is it a case of the expectations being just too high? Or did it struggle because it is a flawed film?
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February is over, and for the most part, we should be very happy it is done and buried. The biggest hit of the month turned out to be Identity Thief, which will cross $100 million shortly. There were also a couple of impressive midlevel hits, like Warm Bodies and Escape from Planet Earth, but for the most part, it was miss after miss. This is bad news for March, which is not only dealing with a slumping 2013 box office, but will be compared with a strong March of 2012. Last March started with The Lorax, which earned more than $200 million. There's a good chance no March release this year will reach this milestone. Last March was also the month The Hunger Games opened, which earned more than $400 million. There's a chance the top three films opening this month won't earn that much combined. 2013 is going to take a beating in the year-over-year comparison and it is already $100 million behind last year's pace.
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November was a strong month and left 2012 with a very easy path to a new all time record. There was only one major miss the entire month, Rise of the Guardians, while The Silver Linings Playbook was pulled from wide release at the last minute, so it is a little hard to judge its box office performance. On the positive side, Skyfall might top original expectations by $100 million. All this December has to do is maintain pace with last December to ensure 2012 sets the new record. I would like to say that will be easy to do, but I really don't know. Last year, there was only one $200 million hit, Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol, plus a few others that reached $100 million, so the bar isn't set too high. This year, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey is expected to at least come close to $300 million. Some think it will earn more than $400 million. However, it could also be the last film to make $100 million till February. December is normally a very good month to release a film, but the release schedule is so messed up that it makes it very hard to predict what will happen. There appears to be just ten films opening truly wide this month (I'm getting mixed signals on a few of them). That's a really light schedule for a month and a light schedule tends to help maximize the box office potential for individual films. However, eight of these films open wide within a seven-day period. That's insane. There's no way all of those films will find an audience and there's a chance that due to the competition, none of them will. Let's hope the situation isn't as bad as that, but there are some serious reasons to be concerned for most new releases coming out this month.
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