This graph shows Arnold Schwarzenegger’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
In order to save his homeland from certain doom, a kung fu master must escape from maniacal James Hook in order to send his daughter a secret talisman that will allow her to control a massive and mythical dragon.
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The firstTerminator movie was a relatively low-budget horror movie where the unstoppable killer was a Sci-fi robot instead of some supernatural force. Its sequel was the most expensive movie at the time and a pure action film with cutting edge special effects. What they had in common were stellarreviews and massive profit margins. Unfortunately, the films rapidly got worse in terms of reviews and when it came to box office returns. Terminator: Dark Fate had the worst financial performance in the franchise. Is it also the worst movie? Or were moviegoers unwilling to see it, because they were burned too many times in the past?
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Terminator 2: Judgment Day has been released on the home market countless times. I mean that literally, as I’m not even going to bother to count. Amazingly, I’ve never actually reviewed this movie, despite owning three different versions of the movie on DVD / Blu-ray. I did review the original movie, twice, so it is about time I reviewed this one.
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It’s not a particularly good week on the home market with no one film that is a must have dominating the rest of the pack. However, this is actually a good thing, as there are several smaller releases that get a chance to shine and there are several Pick of the Week contenders as a result. This includes the biggest release of the week, Blade Runner 2049, as well as a limited release, Loving Vincent, and a forgotten film, Matinee. In the end, I went with I, Daniel Blake: The Criterion Collection as the best of the week.
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This Tuesday is Boxing Day, which is a holiday celebrated in Canada, the U.K., and I assume other countries. It is the celebration of boxes. ... I don’t know what it is. According to Wikipedia, “There are competing theories for the origins of the term, none of which is definitive.” ... So it is probably not important. What is important is the total lack of quality DVD and Blu-ray releases. Haikyu: Season 1 is the best release on this week’s list. The Paper is the second best, and it only managed a spot on the Secondary Blu-ray releases.
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There isn’t a huge selection of limited releases this week, but there are several earning excellent reviews, such as 120 Beats Per Minute, Jane, Tragedy Girls, and others. Additionally, films like The Killing of a Sacred Deer and Wonderstruck are earning merely good reviews, but have enough buzz that they could still do well in theaters.
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It is a busy week for limited releases with more than a dozen titles on this week’s list. This includes a quartet of releases with good reviews and loud buzz. Gifted’s reviews are good, but likely not good enough for limited release. That said, it has a shot at becoming a sleeper hit. Their Finest is a stellar British World War II dramedy, but the cast is more famous in the U.K. than here. Your Name is arguably the best film on this week’s list and it is a monster hit worldwide. However, it is playing in over 300 theaters and that might turn out to be too many. This leaves Colossal as the film with the best shot at mainstream success. Its reviews are not the best, but the combination of reviews, cast, buzz, and commercial viability is.
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It's a slow week, which should come as no surprise. There are no major releases and even among the smaller releases, there are few that are must haves. As far as Pick of the Week contenders go, Dude Bro Party Massacre 3 is the best. It is the Pick of the Week, but you can only get it on the Official Site. I think it is worth the price for the Superfan Edition, but I also backed the Kickstarter at the Blu-ray level, so my judgment is not to be trusted.
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Maggie is a film starring Arnold Schwarzenegger, who hasn't had a massive hit since his return to acting post-politics. In fact, most of the films he's starred in have struggled mightily. Maggie was given an early VOD release, which might be a sign that the studio gave up on the movie. Or it might be a sign that VOD is becoming more lucrative, so much so that VOD can cover this film's modest production budget.
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June was a much better month than expected due to two films, Jurassic World and Inside Out. Had those two films merely matched expectations, then 2015 would have likely fallen behind 2014. As for this coming month, there are five weekends in July and each week there is at least one film with the potential to reach $100 million. Most weeks there are two films that at least have a shot at getting to the century mark. The biggest hit of the month will likely be Minions, which has already opened in several international markets and it's ahead of Despicable Me 2 at the same point. That film made more than $300 million and nearly $1 billion worldwide, so any growth would be fantastic. There are also a number of potential $200 million films, led by Ant-man. Ant-man is the latest release in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, a franchise that has averaged $300 million domestically over eleven films and all of the past six films have reached at least $200 million. I'm not saying this one is guaranteed to do the same, but you can't dismiss that possibility. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation and Pixels have smaller chances to get to $200 million, but you have to at least entertain the possibility. Additionally, last July was a lot weaker than this July looks to be, so 2015 should win in the year-over-year comparison most weeks. Or I might have let the box office success of June cloud my judgment. We will soon find out.
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This week's list of limited releases isn't exactly short, but it is short on potential hits. Maggie and 5 Flights Up both have strong casts, but are playing in potentially too many theaters and also on Video on Demand. Noble is earning some of the best reviews, but its high theater count and lack of star power could hurt it. I Am Big Bird: The Caroll Spinney Story is also earning great reviews, but it is one of the rare documentaries that is taking the Video on Demand route.
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It is a terrible week on the home market. The biggest new release according to Amazon.com is Legend of Korra: Book Two, Spirits, which is coming out on DVD and DVD or Blu-ray. However, according to the people sending me a screener, it doesn't come out till the first week of August. The best release on this week's list is The Grand Budapest Hotel, but it came out last month and the Blu-ray arrived late. The best new release on this week's list, that I know is coming out this week, is The Lunchbox and the Blu-ray Combo Pack is the Pick of the Week.
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March is over and it ended on a bit of a down note. Noah topped expectations, but not every film managed to do the same. For instance, Sabotage barely avoided the Mendoza Line. Overall the box office was down less than $1 million, or 0.7%, when compared to last weekend. Compared to last year, the box office was down 5%, which isn't great, but given how strong 2014 has been, it is hardly a reason to panic. In fact, year-to-date, 2014 has a 6% lead over 2013 at $2.35 billion to $2.22 billion.
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The final weekend in March is a busy one with two wide releases, possibly two wide expansions, and a semi-wide release that could reach the top ten. Noah is the wider of the two wide releases and should have little trouble earning first place over the weekend. On the other hand, there is a chance Sabotage won't reach the top five. Both Bad Words and The Grand Budapest Hotel are expanding wide, or widish. The Grand Budapest Hotel should pop into the top five, but not everyone thinks Bad Words will reach the top ten. Finally, Cesar Chavez is opening in more than 600 theaters and there is a chance it will reach the top ten. This weekend last year was led by G.I. Joe: Retaliation with just over $40 million. Noah could get there, but even if it does, I don't think the other films will hold their end of the bargain and 2014 will finally lose in the year-over-year comparison.
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2014 continued its strong run in February with The Lego Movie beating even the high end expectations and will become the first film released in 2014 to reach $200 million. March doesn't look as strong, as no film is on track to hit $200 million, but there are five films that have a chance at $100 million. Granted, not all of them will get there; in fact, there's a chance only one of them will get there. Divergent is the film I think has the best shot at the century club, but it could be joined by Mr. Peabody and Sherman, for instance, which is earning surprisingly strong reviews. Noah is a big-budget Bible epic and the studio has to be hoping for at least $100 million, but the buzz is quite negative and there have been reports of troubles behind-the-scenes. Last March was led by Oz The Great and Powerful, which pulled in more than $200 million domestically. I don't think any film opening this March will match that figure. In addition, The Croods and G.I. Joe: Retaliation also hit the $100 million milestone, while Olympus Has Fallen came very close. Granted, there were also some big bombs last March, like The Host, but even so, I think 2014 will lose ground in the year-over-year comparison.
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It's another slow week on the home market. There are five or so first run releases, but the biggest box office was earned by Free Birds, which earned $55 million. Fortunately, while there are no box office hits, there are some high quality releases, led by Dallas Buyers Club. Unfortunately, the DVD and Blu-ray Combo Pack has so few extras that I'm convinced a special edition is on its way, so it isn't a Pick of the Week contender. So what are the Pick of the Week contenders this week? First there's Cutie and the Boxer on DVD or Blu-ray. Second there's ... Cutie and the Boxer is the Pick of the Week.
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Escape Plan features two of the biggest action stars of the 1980s, Sylvester Stallone and Arnold Schwarzenegger. It earned mixed reviews and failed to find an audience here. (It did perform well enough internationally that it could break even early on the home market.) Is the film better than its box office performance? Or did it fail to find an audience for a reason?
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There are two wide releases this week, Carrie and Escape Plan. However, neither film is earning critical praise and neither film is expected to be a breakout hit. There is a third film opening semi-wide, The Fifth Estate, but despite being clearly made for Oscars, its reviews are worse than the two more mainstream releases. It looks like Gravity will have no trouble earning the hat trick at the box office. It should also earn more than last year's winner, Paranormal Activity 4. Unfortunately, last year had much better depth than this year will have, so 2013 will likely lose yet again in the year-over-year comparison.
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October is an awkward month. It sits between the dumping ground that is September and November, the unofficial start of Awards Season / holiday blockbuster season. For the most part, September was stronger than average for the month and there's reason to be optimistic going forward. After all, box office success tends to feed on itself, as does box office struggles. That said, there are not a lot of sure hits over the coming four weeks. Of the nine or ten films opening wide this month, only Gravity has a better than 50/50 chance at $100 million. Captain Phillips could have a shot at the century mark, but only if it becomes a serious Awards Season player. Its early reviews suggest that could be a possibility. Last October, there were two films to reach the $100 million mark, Taken 2 and Argo. On the other hand, pretty much everything else that opened that month crashed and burned. While this October doesn't have as strong a top end, it will hopefully have much better depth.
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The Last Stand was important for two reasons. Firstly, it was the first starring role for Arnold Schwarzenegger in a decade, while it was also the English-language debut for Kim Jee-woon. Unfortunately, while I wanted the film to do well, it made less in total that I predicted it would make during its opening weekend. Is it really that bad? Or should moviegoers who skipped it the first time check it out on the home market?
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Counter-programming will win the day this Superbowl weekend, with rombie comedy Warm Bodies posting a respectable $20.025 million, according to Lionsgate's Sunday estimate. While there's nothing special about that result, it does give the film a shot at making money, which is more than can be said for actioner Bullet to the Head. Sylvester Stallone's latest will limp to $4.5 million for the weekend, an even worse result than Jason Statham's Parker (which debuted with $7 million) and Arnold Schwarzenegger's The Last Stand ($6.3 million). Put those three together, and you get a combined opening of $17.8 million, which still wouldn't much to write home about if one of them had earned it on its own.
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There are a trio of new releases opening on Martin Luther King, Jr. weekend, but it looks like Zero Dark Thirty has a good chance to remain in first place. Mama is earning pretty good buzz, even if its reviews are only mixed. The Last Stand is the widest release of the week and the reviews are positive, but the buzz is mixed, to be kind. Finally, there's Broken City, which has the quietest buzz and the weakest reviews. Last year, Underworld: Awakening opened with just over $25 million and there's almost no chance that will happen again this year. Then again, we might have better depth.
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December ended on a positive note with 2012 topping 2011 with a week to spare. Hopefully this will translate into strong box office numbers going forward. There are several January releases that actually look very interesting, but you always have to ask, if the films are as good as they look, why are they opening in January? The biggest hit on this list will likely not be a January release, but a limited release from December that is expanding wide in January. Zero Dark Thirty opened in limited release the Wednesday before Christmas and right away it got off to an incredible start. If it can turn some of its Awards Season nominations into wins, which seems very likely at this point, it should be the biggest hit of January. If it can earn some major Oscars, then it might crack $100 million. Unfortunately, no other film on this release list is likely to come close to the $100 million mark. Last January was unseasonably strong with three films opening with $20 million or more and four films finishing with $50 million or more. It is possible that none of the new releases will reach those relatively weak standards.
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The Expendables cost $82 million, which is not an insignificant amount of money, especially for a mini-major like Lionsgate. However, the risk paid off when it became the distributor's biggest hit of all time. (That record has since been broken by The Hunger Games.) It was obvious that they would make a sequel, but is it any good? Granted, in my review, I called the original, "a pretty mindless action film that takes itself a little too seriously at times." So I'm not expecting a lot here. If the movie can provide mindless action like before, then I will assume it is worth checking out for fans. Can it deliver? Can it surpass expectations?
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