Situated between the blockbuster releases of Uncharted and The Batman, this week’s newest wide releases are aiming at more targeted demographics, and they couldn’t be more different. Romantic musical Cyrano and horror comedy Studio 666 arrive in theaters this week. Uncharted stays this week’s widest release, keeping its opening count of 4,275 locations.
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Although still early in the year, we have our first 2022 film debuting in over 4,000 theaters, and first to do since Spider-Man: No Way Home opened in 4,336 locations back in mid December. This week’s widest release, Uncharted, arrives in 4,275 theaters as it kicks off its theatrical run (Tom Holland seems to be popular these days, huh?). Two other wide releases make their way into theaters this holiday weekend in the way of a buddy comedy and a horror feature.
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There are way too many limited releases and I fear this will hurt the box office chances of any film coming out this week. This is too bad, as there are several that deserve to find an audience, including Bacurau, Extra Ordinary, First Cow, Go Back to China, and so many more. It’s going to be tough when none of the films open in the $10,000 club.
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September is over and we should all be glad about that. Unless the final weekend brings a surprise $100 million hit or two, 2016’s lead over 2015 will shrink over the month. There were some bright spots, most notably Sully, which will be the biggest hit of the month. On the other hand, we had more outright bombs than even midlevel hits. Sadly, October isn’t much better. There are a couple of films that could be $100 million hits, but most of the films will struggle to become midlevel hits. Both Inferno and The Girl on the Train are aiming for $100 million. One of them might get there too. If both get there, then October will be seen as a success. By comparison, last October was led by The Martian; however, because of a misalignment in the calendar, The Martian’s opening weekend actually lines up with the final weekend in September. It had great legs, so that will help 2015 early in the month, but the rest of the month was terrible last year and I think 2016 will come out ahead as a result.
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August continued to pad 2016’s lead over 2015 in the year-over-year comparison. It managed this feat almost entirely due to Suicide Squad, which is on pace to hit $300 million. The next best film was Sausage Party, which might make $100 million, if it gets a push over the top. September won’t be as strong as that. This is no surprise, as the month is one of the biggest dumping grounds on the calendar. That said, studios have been working to make the end of the month a lot more productive and there are a few potential hits. The biggest of these is The Magnificent Seven, which is expected to crack $100 million, maybe even $150 million. Meanwhile, Sully and Storks both have a limited chance at $100 million. Last September, the biggest release of the month was Hotel Transylvania 2 with pulled in $169.70 million. I don’t think The Magnificent Seven will match that, so we might need a surprise $100 million hit for 2016 to come out on top.
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I just finished reviewingSing Street and I thought it was a non-original idea done with exceptional execution. On the other hand, Hardcore Henry could be the exact opposite. It is a first-person action film, which is odd, to put it mildly. It earned a ton of internet buzz, but failed to find an audience in theaters. Is it just a cool idea, but a weak film? Or should more people check it out on the home market?
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March was a really good month, for the most part. There were a few bombs, but the two biggest films, Zootopia and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, both beat expectations by significant margins, so overall the box office was better than expected. Unfortunately, April is a mess, which makes prognosticating really tough. Every single week has at least one film that either moved, switched from wide to limited release, or disappeared entirely. The Jungle Book appears to be the biggest film of the year, but The Huntsman: Winter's War could also be a $100 million hit. Sadly, last April was led by Furious 7, which earned more than $350 million at the box office. That's very likely more than both The Jungle Book and The Huntsman: Winter's War will make combined. Worse still, there were only four weekends in April last year, meaning the month ends by going head-to-head with The Avengers: Age of Ultron. By the time the month ends, 2016's lead over 2015 might be gone. Let's hope it is not that bad.
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