Argylle will almost certainly end this weekend at the top of the box office chart, but it looks as though it will struggle to live up to its potential. After posting just $1.7 million in previews on Thursday it will need to come storming back over the next few days to reach a respectable opening number. The Chosen: Season 4, Episodes 1–3 wasn’t far behind yesterday, earning $1.4 million on its first day in theaters. While it isn’t expected to have the legs to challenge Argylle, it should at least land a decent opening in the top 10.
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After three weeks of being the widest release in the land, Mean Girls slips into the third-place slot this week as a newcomer makes its way into theaters. The teen musical comedy has racked up just short of $62 million in its first 20-days at the box office, and has been running neck-and-neck with Jason Statham’s action flick, The Beekeeper in recent days, winning the weekend box office, but slipping to second on the daily charts during the week. This week will witness a new leader at the box office as Argylle makes its debut.
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Elly Conway is the reclusive author of a series of best-selling espionage novels, whose idea of bliss is a night at home with her computer and her cat, Alfie. But when the plots of Elly’s fictional books—which center on secret agent Argylle and his mission to unravel a global spy syndicate—begin to mirror the covert actions of a real-life spy organization, quiet evenings at home become a thing of the past.
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As the Christmas holiday approaches, there are plenty of options for movie-goers. The only question is what to watch? Spider-Man: No Way Home opened last Friday and took nearly everyone by surprise as it posted an opening domestic weekend of $260 million, placing itself between 2019’s Avengers: Endgame and 2018’s Avengers: Infinity War as the second-biggest opening of all time. The film is currently showing in 4,336 locations, which makes it the 30th-widest opening of all time, just behind Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2. Spider-Man: No Way Home might not be challenged at the box office, but there are still a wide array of films for every interest.
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As bad as July was, August actually managed to be worse. 2017 was over $300 million behind 2016’s pace during August alone. That’s worse than the rest of the summer combined. The only film that was an unqualified hit was Annabelle: Creation, although there were a couple of other films that are doing well enough to be considered financial hits. There’s some good news and some bad news for this September. The month gets off to a slow start with no wide releases the first weekend, but there are three films opening during the rest of the month that are expected to top $100 million and all three should be better than the best August had to offer. It is expected to be the biggest hit of the month and is tracking to break the record for the biggest September weekend. Both Kingsman: The Golden Circle and The Lego Ninjago Movie are expected to cross $100 million, although they are opening the same weekend, so that could hurt both of their chances. Meanwhile last September, Sully was the biggest release of the month earning $125.07 million. It should top that, while Kingsman: The Golden Circle and The Lego Ninjago Movie won’t be too far behind. 2017 should cut the gap with 2016, but sadly only by a little bit.
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Fifty Shades of Grey will win the weekend box office race and then aliens will come down to Earth and eliminate us as a species. Okay, that second part is just wishful thinking on my part. Kingsman: The Secret Service will open in a distant second place, despite earning reviews that are really good, for this time of year. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water will fit somewhere in-between the two new releases. Last year, The LEGO Movie remained in first place with $49.85 million. Fifty Shades of Grey will crush that figure, leading 2015 to an easy victory.
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It was a record-breaking January thanks entirely to American Sniper, which set records, both during its limited release run and especially when it expanded wide. There were a couple of other films that did well, but for the most part, it was a typical January. The question is, will American Sniper boost the overall box office, which would help February, or will its effects fade as it does? There are ten wide releases in February; there are a few films that may or may not open in the top ten. Of these, there are only two that have a real shot at true box office success. The biggest film in terms of buzz is Fifty Shades of Grey, which looks so, so bad. Personally, I would rather watch The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water a hundred times than sit through just the trailer for Fifty Shades of Grey. If Fifty Shades of Grey becomes the biggest hit of the month, it will mrean the end of civilization. Because. I. Will. End. Civilization. Last February was mostly mediocre, except for The LEGO Movie which was a huge early year hit. There's no chance any film opening this month will match The LEGO Movie; the top two films likely won't match The LEGO Movie. Because of this, 2015 will need to rely on depth to come out ahead. I'm not sure how likely that will be.
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It has been a great year so far and April was again a strong month. The box office was led by Captain America: The Winter Soldier, as it became the second film of the year to reach $200 million, while Rio 2 is on pace to become the seventh $100 million hit of the year. Big picture, 2014 has already hit $3 billion, which isn't a record for this time of the year, but it is $250 million ahead of 2013. That streak ends in May. Don't get me wrong. There are six films opening this month that at least have a shot at $100 million and two of those should earn more than $200 million and there are two others that at least have a shot at that milestone. Leading the way is The Amazing Spider-Man 2, which is looking to top The Winter Soldier and become the second biggest hit of the year so far. Its main competition this month is X-men: Days of Future Past, while Godzilla also has a shot at $200 million. Unfortunately, this month last year, Iron Man 3 earned more than $400 million, while two other films took in $200 million and seven films in total reached the century mark. That is going to be really hard to replicate this year and 2014 will likely lose some of its lead over 2013. Fortunately, 2014 has such a big lead that unless the box office really slumps, it will end the month with at least a small lead over 2013.
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July was hit and miss at the box office, mostly miss. In fact, only two films really topped expectations, Despicable Me 2 and The Conjuring. That said, 2013 has nearly closed the gap with 2012 and it won't take much to pull ahead. Looking forward to August, we find that it is a very busy month with 16 or so films opening wide over five weeks. Of course, the closer you get to September, the more likely these films will struggle to find an audience, and more often than not, there are simply too many films opening wide to suspect they will all find an audience. On the high end, 2 Guns could be the biggest hit of the month with just over $100 million. The Smurfs 2 and Elysium could pull in $100 million. All three of those films are opening in the first two weeks of the month. After that, most of the new releases will be lucky if they reach $50 million during their theatrical runs. By comparison, last August was not as busy with 14 wide releases. Of those, only one film, The Bourne Legacy, topped $100 million, although a couple came reasonably close. Hopefully we will have more $100 million hits this time around and 2013 will be able to complete the comeback.
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