February 24th, 2019
-2-News.jpg)
It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. We will announce the winners and have our reactions as they happen, while keeping track of how our readers did in predicting the outcomes.
More...
February 24th, 2019
Voting has finished in our annual Predict the Academy Awards contest, and we can reveal who you, our readers, expect to win at the Oscars tonight. Roma tops the polls, both in the number of Oscars it’s expected to win, and as the favorite for Best Picture, but its win is far from a sure thing. It gets 67% of the vote for Best Picture, well ahead of any other film, but not enough for us to call the race at this point. Green Book is the second-favorite for Best Picture, with about 15% of the vote, and Black Panther third with 6%. Bohemian Rhapsody is favored by 5% of voters, and the list is rounded out with the true longshots: A Star is Born, The Favourite, BlacKkKlansman, and Vice, in that order, with those last four all getting less than 3% of the votes.
More...
February 24th, 2019
-1-News.jpg)
It’s Oscar Day, and we will be live blogging the show. Before that, let’s take a last look at the nominations with a few annotations. in Italics are those that have received the most votes from our readers so far in our Oscar contest (which is open to new entries until noon, Pacific, today—enter now!). Bold films are those films I think will win. Meanwhile, those that are Underlined are those I want to win. Not all categories have underlined nominees, because not all categories have someone I’m cheering for, or because there are two nominees I couldn’t pick between. For example, I would be happy with half of the Best Picture nominees winning.
More...
February 21st, 2019
-1-News.jpg)
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at Best Director, which is not exactly competitive, but it is yet another category where we have a favorite, but where an upset wouldn’t be too shocking.
More...
February 19th, 2019
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the two Screenwriting Categories, ending with with Best Original Screenplay. This category is actually competitive with three films I can see winning.
More...
February 11th, 2019
The BAFTA winners were announced and The Favorite led the way with 7 wins. Like I mentioned before, understandably, the BAFTAs tend to favor British films and this can lessen their ability to predict Oscar winners and The Favorite is such a British Film that they managed to spell the word correctly. That doesn’t mean there are no lessons we can learn from these results.
More...
February 3rd, 2019
The Directors Guild of America announced their winners on Saturday. There were some surprise results that suggest it could be an unusual year at the Oscars.
More...
January 23rd, 2019
The Oscar nominations were announced yesterday starting at just after 5 am Pacific time. They do this every year for reasons no one has been able to adequately explain to me. Because it was the day after a long weekend, it took a bit of time to get all the normal work done and digest the results. And there were some interesting results to digest. No one film led the way with total nominations, as two films, The Favourite and Roma tied with 10 nominations each.
More...
January 12th, 2019
The BAFTA nominations were announced and The Favorite led the way with 12 nominations. Sometimes the BAFTAs are a really good indicator for who will do well on Oscar night. Other times their bias to British films is too much. I think this year will be an example of the latter and I don't think The Favourite is suddenly an Oscar favorite. That said, there’s still some things you can learn here.
More...
January 10th, 2019
The Writers Guild of America has a lot of categories, as they hand out nearly 30 awards. However, only three of them are for theatrical releases. The list of nominees include several major Awards Season players and not a lot of surprises. There are some clear patterns emerging, but also some surprising results.
More...
January 9th, 2019
-2-News.jpg)
Directors Guild of America announced their theatrical nominations this week and we are starting to see some real patterns emerge and I think the Oscar picture is getting clearer.
More...
January 7th, 2019
The Golden Globes were the first major Awards Season ceremony this year handing out the hardware on Sunday night. Are last night’s events a strong indicator for the Oscars? I hope not! Certainly not in all categories, as there were some puzzling results last night.
More...
December 6th, 2018
-1-News.jpg)
The Golden Globes nominations are the second major Awards Season set to come out. It is still very early in the year and the predictive value of the Golden Globes is a little suspect, but there are still some things to learn here. For example Vice led the way with six nominations, so its Oscar chances have gone up, but don’t expect it to lead the way when the Oscars nominations are announced.
More...
November 22nd, 2018
Thanksgiving is a great weekend for wide releases, but a terrible one for limited releases. That said, while there are almost no films on this week’s list, two of them are earning Award-worthy reviews: The Favourite and Roma. However, Roma is playing on Netflix, so its box office chances are nearly zero.
More...
March 2nd, 2014
The Oscars are being handed out this evening and as usual, we will be live-blogging the event. Here's the last look at the nominations with those chosen by our contest entrants as the likely winners in Bold. If I disagree with the consensus, they are in italics, and sharp-eyed readers will note there are no categories where that's true. Finally, if I am rooting for an underdog, they are underlined. There are only two categories where that is true. I want Chiwetel Ejiofor to win Best Lead Actor for his performance in 12 Years a Slave. I also want Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa to win for Best Hair and Make-up, because Dallas Buyers Club had a hair and make-up budget of $250. Yes it was effective, but the special effects make-up used in Bad Grandpa was just more difficult to pull off, even if the movie wasn't Oscar-bait. Regardless, I don't expect there to be many surprises at this year's awards.
More...
February 27th, 2014
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we end this with the two most prestigious awards, starting with Best Director. You could generously call this a two-horse race, but in reality there is only one director expected to win.
More...
February 24th, 2014
It's a very impressive week at the top of the new DVD and Blu-ray releases. There's not one, but two $200 million hits coming out this week. Likewise, there are not one, but two major Awards Season hits coming out as well. One film, Gravity, is in both groups. All three films, Gravity, Thor: The Dark World, and Nebraska, are all contenders for Pick of the Week. Gravity is the only one I didn't get a chance to review, but the Blu-ray Combo Pack or the 3D Combo Pack are clearly the Pick of the Week. It's an amazing movie and the Blu-ray releases are loaded with extras.
More...
January 26th, 2014
The Directors Guild of America handed out the awards over the weekend, including two for theatrical releases. There were no true upsets, but it didn't go exactly as I anticipated it would go.
More...
January 16th, 2014
The Oscar nominations were announced this morning and there are some surprises mixed in with the predictable results. Gravity and American Hustle led the way with ten nominations each while 12 Years a Slave was right behind with nine. The fact that 12 Years a Slave wasn't the leader is the first of the surprises.
More...
January 14th, 2014
The Directors Guild of America finished its theatrical nominations yesterday with the Documentary category. I'm of two minds with the list of nominees. On the one hand, I feel like I should be surprised, because a number of documentaries thought to be Oscar favorites were left off the list. On the other hand, they've been left off the list a number of times. I think it is time to rethink who is and is not an Oscar favorite.
More...
January 13th, 2014
Hollywood Foreign Press Association handed out the Golden Globe awards last night, and there were a few surprises in the mix. American Hustle led the way with three wins, which isn't a real surprise, but I think many thought another film would lead with three or more wins. The only other film to earn more than one award was Dallas Buyers Club at just two. That might give you a hint at what the big surprise was.
More...
January 7th, 2014
The Directors Guild of America handed out their nominations for Feature Films today and will do the same for Documentaries next week. I have no idea why they do this, but it makes my job harder. Usually, I just wait till the Documentary nominations are announced, but this year I will do two stories. Next week will be mostly cut and paste job.
More...
December 14th, 2013
Hollywood Foreign Press Association announced their Golden Globe nominations this week, and a clear picture is forming. 12 Years a Slave was again the recipient of the most nominations, but this time it was a tie, as it and American Hustle both grabbed seven nominations. If you look down the list of other multi-nominated films, you will find a number of familiar faces.
More...
October 6th, 2013
Success at the box office is no guarantee of awards, but it certainly doesn't do any harm. And by that metric, Gravity's chances of picking up an Oscar or three is taking a considerable turn for the better this weekend as the sci-fi thriller heads towards a celestial $55.6 million debut, according to Warner Bros.'s Sunday projection. That will comfortably set a record for the biggest weekend in October, overtaking Paranormal Activity 3's $52.6 million back in 2011. With Captain Phillips and 12 Years a Slave opening in the next two weeks, awards season is getting interesting.
More...
October 3rd, 2013
There are two films opening wide this week: Gravity and Runner Runner. However, while the two films share a release date, they are at the opposite ends when it comes to box office potential and critical acclaim. Gravity should have an easy time winning the race for the top of the box office chart, and if its reviews can translate into Awards Season buzz, then it should have very strong legs. On the other hand, many analysts expect Runner Runner to stumble out of the gate and disappear before the end of the month. This weekend last year, Taken 2 opened with just under $50 million, which is too much for Gravity to match. Frankenweenie earned $11 million during its opening weekend, which is a figure Runner Runner should match, but might not. Overall, 2013 looks a lot weaker than 2012 was.
More...
October 1st, 2013
October is an awkward month. It sits between the dumping ground that is September and November, the unofficial start of Awards Season / holiday blockbuster season. For the most part, September was stronger than average for the month and there's reason to be optimistic going forward. After all, box office success tends to feed on itself, as does box office struggles. That said, there are not a lot of sure hits over the coming four weeks. Of the nine or ten films opening wide this month, only Gravity has a better than 50/50 chance at $100 million. Captain Phillips could have a shot at the century mark, but only if it becomes a serious Awards Season player. Its early reviews suggest that could be a possibility. Last October, there were two films to reach the $100 million mark, Taken 2 and Argo. On the other hand, pretty much everything else that opened that month crashed and burned. While this October doesn't have as strong a top end, it will hopefully have much better depth.
More...
_cropped.jpg){kind=link}