May 3rd, 2024
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The first weekend in May traditionally marks the beginning of Summer Season at the box office, and The Fall Guy seems like a perfect Summer movie: action, comedy, big-name stars, and a touch of nostalgia. This looked for a while like it could break out to become a major hit for Universal, and the studio has marketed it heavily. Audience buzz never really took off beyond a respectable level, and its Thursday previews suggest it might not make $30 million this weekend.
With Tarot not expected to bring in a huge amount of business, this is looking like a modest start to Summer, although there is one other film that could help turn things around.
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May 2nd, 2024
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Two newcomers took the top spots at last weekend’s box office with Challengers and Unsung Hero logging in $15 million and $7.73 million respectively, and unseating former chart-topper Civil War, which posted just over $7 million during its third weekend. This week will see two more new wide releases make their way into North American cinemas with the release of stuntman action-comedy The Fall Guy, and the horror feature, Tarot.
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August 7th, 2022
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Bullet Train will fall fractionally below our Friday-morning prediction, but is still on course for a $30-million opening weekend, according to Sony’s Sunday-morning projection. The result is notably higher than our model’s core prediction of $21.7 million, driven perhaps by the star power of Brad Pitt and director David Leitch, but maybe also because it falls more into the raw action category than the tentpole movies that have been inhabiting theaters over the past few months.
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August 4th, 2022
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Like last week, two new wide releases grace movie theaters across North America this weekend in the form of the violent action-comedy Bullet Train, and holiday comedy, Easter Sunday. Opening in 4,317 theaters, Bullet Train is directed by David Leitch and contains a large ensemble cast, led by Brad Pitt as an experienced but unlucky assassin named “Ladybug”. Co-starring with Pitt is Joey King, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Brian Tyree Henry, and Andrew Koji among others. The Japanese-set film which is based on Kōtarō Isaka’s dark novel “MariaBeetle” will be available on both traditional and IMAX screens. Easter Sunday, which will debut in 3,175 locations, stars Jo Koy as a man who returns home for an Easter celebration with his riotous, bickering, eating, drinking, laughing, loving family.
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November 5th, 2019
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Fast and the Furious is one of the largest franchises around with the nine installments so far earning nearly $6 billion worldwide. However, it appears to be off its peak as far as ticket sales are concerned with Hobbs & Shaw having the lowest box office haul since Fast Five exploded the franchise into the top-tier. Is the franchise off its peak in terms of quality as well? If so, is Hobbs & Shaw still worth checking out? Or is it time for fans to move on?
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May 1st, 2018
April was all about Avengers: Infinity War, which earned about as much during its opening weekend as the next two biggest films, A Quiet Place and Rampage, will earn in total. However, moving Infinity War to April has left a big gap for the first two weeks of May. It isn’t until Deadpool 2 debuts that we have a potential $100 million movie, while the week after Solo: A Star Wars Story closes the month on a strong note. Fortunately, both of those films are expected to earn more than $100 million during their opening weekends alone and combined could earn over $700 million domestically. Last May, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 helped the month get off to a fast start, but it was the only monster hit of the month. Infinity War opening a week early will mean the month will start slower, in terms of new releases, but Infinity War’s record-breaking debut should help 2018 come out ahead in the end.
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July 1st, 2017
I hate it when the first of the month lands on a Saturday. By the time this story goes live, we will still have almost no box office data for Despicable Me 3, so we won’t know if June ended on a positive note. Fortunately, Wonder Woman beat expectations and might end up as the biggest hit of the summer, at least for a little while. July begins with Spider-Man: Homecoming, which should make at least $300 million and is the last film being released this summer that has a shot at being a $400 million hit domestically. It is very likely that nothing else this month will come within $100 million of that movie, so that could help its legs. There are a few potential $100 million hits, including War for the Planet of the Apes, Dunkirk, and a couple of other long shots. Last July had a similar feel with The Secret Life of Pets topping the list with well over $300 million, while there were five other $100 million hits. This July would have to beat expectations substantially to match this performance. I’m not confident 2017 will be able to maintain its pace at the box office. I’m worried at least one big film will struggled and 2017 will end the month behind 2016’s pace.
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February 1st, 2015
John Wick stars Keanu Reeves in the titular role. Keanu Reeves has earned close to $2 billion domestically, but it has been more than a decade since he starred in a film that earned more than $100 million at the box office. This film couldn't even get halfway to the century mark. Did it deserve to become a hit? Or was it destined to fall between the cracks?
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