March 15th, 2016
There are several top-notch releases coming out this week, including a trio of Awards Season contenders: The Big Short, Brooklyn, and Carol. All three are Pick of the Week contenders. However, the winner of that title is Game of Thrones: Season Five on Blu-ray.
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February 28th, 2016
Voting in our annual Predict the Academy Awards contest is now closed, and we can reveal the final vote totals in each category, along with the rough probability for which film will win each award. This is a year where readers are very confident about the outcomes in many of the categories. In fact, there isn’t a single major category where less than 50% of readers picked the same winner, and there are five Oscars where 90% or more of readers agreed on the outcome, including a massive 97% of the vote for Inside Out for Best Animated Feature. That makes The Revenant a rather more uncertain bet, with 70% of readers favoring it for Best Picture. That’s actually theoretically the closest call among all the major prizes…
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February 28th, 2016
This is shaping up to be a triumphant weekend for 20th Century Fox. The studio will take three out of the top five spots at the box office this weekend, with Deadpool claiming a third straight win with $31.5 million, taking it to a huge (for the time of year) $285.6 million by close of business on Sunday. The studio’s Kung Fu Panda 3 will be down just 28% to $9 million in third place, for $128.5 million to date, and their new release Eddie the Eagle will land in fifth with a slightly disappointing, but not horrible, $6.3 million. Oh, and The Revenant is still in the top ten in its tenth weekend in release, and is the hot favorite to win Best Picture at the Oscars this evening (more on that in a moment).
All of which is a roundabout way of saying that Gods of Egypt had a horrible opening weekend…
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February 28th, 2016
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It’s Oscar day and, if all goes to plan, I will be live-blogging the ceremony tonight. Here is the list of nominees marked according to predictions from our readers, and my personal wishes. Nominees in Bold are the ones predicted to win by our readers (we’ll have a full rundown of the predictions at noon, after the contest ends). If I am predicting a different film, those are in Italics. Meanwhile, the nominees I want to win, but don’t think will win, are Underlined. There are a few categories where the film I really think deserves the award was not even nominated, plus a few I don’t have a real opinion on.
If you haven’t done so already, it’s not too late to enter our Oscar competition, and win all Best Picture nominees on Blu-ray or DVD.
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February 27th, 2016
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With our annual Oscar Prediction contest closing at noon tomorrow, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try to figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This morning, we get to the final category, Best Picture. The film I think should win, Inside Out, wasn't even nominated. Of the movies on this list, I think The Martian is the best. If you look at the odds makers, it isn’t even in the top three. I’m going to be doubly disappointed tomorrow.
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February 24th, 2016
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Like the Best Supporting Actress, Best Supporting Actor is a two-horse race, making it one of the more competitive categories of the ones we are going to look at.
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February 20th, 2016
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. The Best Adapted Screenplay category is about as competitive as the Best Original Screenplay, which is to say it isn't competitive at all.
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February 18th, 2016
Deadpool had the best theater average for the entire year with an average of $37,222. Granted, it is still early and there's no way this record will last till June, but it is still an incredible start. On the downside, there was no other film in the $10,000 club.
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February 15th, 2016
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The BAFTA awards were handed out over the weekend. There were two main winners, The Revenant, which won most of its five awards in the high-prestige categories, and Mad Max: Fury Road, which earn all four of its awards in technical categories. It appears the Oscars will be very similar in that breakdown.
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February 14th, 2016
This weekend last year, Fifty Shades of Grey broke one of the longest-standing records in the business by posting a $85.2 million opening weekend, besting the record for biggest weekend in February that had been held by The Passion of the Christ since 2004. Fifty Shades and, in 2014, The LEGO Movie dispelled the myth that big movies couldn’t open in February, and this year Deadpool is single-handedly making President’s Day weekend look like a Summer holiday weekend with an opening projected by Fox at $135 million for the Friday–Sunday period and $150 million over four days.
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February 7th, 2016
The Directors Guild of America awards were handed out and it was a big night for Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu and The Revenant.
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February 3rd, 2016
There was only one film in the $10,000 this week, Kung Fu Panda 3, which earned an average of $10,438. The best limited release was Rabin The Last Day, which opened with $7,940 in one theater.
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January 31st, 2016
The Screen Actors Guild winners were handed out last night and for the most part the winners here will likely walk away with an Oscar. There is one major exception.
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January 28th, 2016
The Revenant rose to first place with $33.8 million in 48 markets for totals of $104.5 million internationally and $223.7 million worldwide. This includes a first place opening in Mexico with $5.3 million, but its biggest market was the U.K. with $5.51 million in 623 theaters for a two-week total of $17.16 million. The film will need to reach at least $300 million to break even any time soon, but that seems likely at this pace.
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January 24th, 2016
The Producers Guild of America handed out their awards last night and The Big Short came out the surprise winner for the top prize. That victory shakes up an awards season that had looked like it would be a two-horse race between Spotlight and The Revenant.
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January 20th, 2016
I know it is early in the year, but The Lady in the Van has set the record for best opening theater average for 2016 at $18,066. That record likely won't last very long, but it is good for this time of year. The only other film in the $10,000 club was the overall number one film, Ride Along 2, which earned an average of $11,100.
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January 15th, 2016
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The Oscar nominations were announced at 5:30 am Pacific time. Nothing is good that early in the morning. Worse still, this was a terrible year for snubs, especially when it comes to diversity of the nominees. The voters for the Oscars are 94% white and 77% male... but that's still more diverse than the list of nominees. The Revenant led the way with 12 nominations and it is expected to win a few of those, while it is a serious contender in most of the categories it was nominated in.
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January 14th, 2016
The Directors Guild of America spread out the nominations, which I always felt hurt the buzz. There are ten categories of awards, but only three of which pertain to theatrical releases. There are very few surprises across these three categories, so the Oscar nominations today shouldn't be full of surprises either.
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January 13th, 2016
There were only three films in the $10,000 club this weekend and all of them were holdovers. Leading the way was Anomalisa with an average of $12,738 in 17 theaters. At this pace, the film will earn some measure of mainstream success. However, unless it wins an Oscar, it likely won't match its $8 million production budget in theaters. The Revenant slipped into second place with $11,801, while the overall number one film, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, was next with $10,245.
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January 11th, 2016
The Golden Globes were handed out on Sunday evening. There were a few minor surprises and some infuriating results. On the other hand, no one film truly dominated, with The Revenant leading the way with just three wins. Only two other movies earned more than one win, The Martian and Steve Jobs.
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January 9th, 2016
The BAFTA nominations were announced and you can read them on their site... in alphabetical order. Alphabetical order is very useful in most circumstances, but not here. On the other hand, the nominees within each category are not presented in alphabetical order. ... Are the BAFTAs trolling us? As for the actual nominees, the big winners here are Bridge of Spies and Carol, both of which earned nine nominations. For Carol, this is just another impressive score, but this was a pleasant surprise for Bridge of Spies.
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January 7th, 2016
The big news this week was Star Wars: The Force Awakens being officially crowned the All-Time Domestic Box Office champion. It should follow-up that news with yet another first place finish on the weekend box office. There are two films trying to take its crown: The Forest and The Revenant. The Revenant is a very likely Oscar winner and has performed phenomenally well in limited release, so it has a real shot at box office success this weekend. On the other hand, The Forest is a low-budget horror film that is just hoping to land in the top five. This weekend last year was led by Taken 3 with just under $40 million over the weekend, while Selma earned second place with $11 million. The Force Awakens might make more than those two films combined, but even if it doesn't, the one-two punch of The Force Awakens plus The Revenant will give 2016 an easy win in the year-over-year comparison.
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January 6th, 2016
The Writers Guild of America nominees were announced and there are only a few surprises here. Additionally, one of these three races seems too close to call at this point.
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January 5th, 2016
The Revenant remained on top of the theater average chart dipping just 6% to an average of $111,957 in four theaters. That's amazing and it bodes very well for its chances during its wide expansion this weekend. Furthermore, there are some major Awards Season events this week that could boost ticket sales even more. Anomalisa was well back in second place, but it still had an impressive opening with an average of $33,806 over the weekend and an average of $52,658 during its five-day opening. Star Wars: The Force Awakens was next with an average of $21,829. Chimes at Midnight earned $20,480 in one theater during its re-release, while Only Yesterday earned $14,970, also in one theater. The latter film is yet another success for GKIDS; this is the only studio that routinely has success with animated films in limited release. 45 Years remained in the $10,000 club with an average of $14,588 in six theaters. It doubled its theater count, but the average only fell 33% and that's a great sign for further expansion. Mr. Six is the fourth holdover in the $10,000 club earning an average of $10,406 in 28 theaters.
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January 4th, 2016
As expected, Star Wars: The Force Awakens dominated the weekend box office earning $90.24 million, breaking several records along the way. However, it did fall 40% over the weekend, which is a lot for this time of year. It appears The Force Awakens is acting more like a typical blockbuster hit and less like the typically leggy December release. That said, I don't think Disney is disappointed with the results so far. On the other hand, The Hateful Eight got off to a disappointing start earning third place with just a fraction of Django Unchained's opening weekend. The overall box office was down from last week, but was still an incredible $219 million. This was 26% lower than last week, but 41% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date is a little less useful, as 2016 is only 3 days old, but it is 27% higher than 2015 was after the first weekend. This is even more impressive, as 2015 had an extra day before the weekend.
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December 29th, 2015
The Revenant had the best theater average of the week and the second best opening theater average of the year with $474,560 in four theaters for an average of $118,640. The only film to open in 2015 with a better theater average was Steve Jobs with an average of $130,381. It struggled during its wide expansion. Hopefully that won't happen here. The Hateful Eight was next with an average of $46,107 in 100 theaters. The overall number one film, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, was next with an average of $36,092. This would have been the fourth best opening weekend average for a wide release all year. 45 Years opened with an average of $21,925 in three theaters over the weekend and an average of $30,119 over its five-day opening. Daddy's Home was the second wide release in the $10,000 club with an average of $11,844. Mr. Six just missed the $10,000 club over the weekend with an average of $9,562 in 30 theaters; however, it earned an average of $12,500 over its four-day opening.
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December 28th, 2015
Star Wars: The Force Awakens easily won the weekend race, but not by as much as anticipated. On the other hand, Daddy's Home was a surprise hit and should cruise to $100 million. None of the rest of the new releases really bombed and most will end their runs as midlevel hits. Overall, the box office fell just 5.1% from last weekend to $295 million, which is the second biggest combined weekend of all time. It was also 41% bigger than the same weekend last year and 2015's year-over-year lead grew to 7.0%. It looks like the 2015 box office will reach $11 billion when all is said and done, but we won't know for sure till we get the absolute final numbers.
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December 26th, 2015
Star Wars: The Force Awakens set another record by earning $49.34 million on Christmas Day. This more than doubles the previous record of $24.61 million held by Sherlock Holmes. However, this was only 79% more than it made on Christmas Eve, whereas Avatar rose 107% on the same day in its run. You can't even say Avatar had it easy due to weaker competition, so perhaps the explanation lies elsewhere. Perhaps a lot of people who were scared off by the crowds thus far decided to see the movie on Christmas Eve, because it is historically a slow day a the box office. That’s certainly what I was thinking. Because of this, I'm lowing my expectations for the weekend from $170 million to $160 million. This would have been a good opening weekend result for the film. It will be well above the current Record Second Weekend of $106.59 million by Jurassic World.
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December 23rd, 2015
There are five wide releases / wide expansions this week, none of which will even come close to Star Wars: The Force Awakens' second weekend of release. The rest of the box office combined won't come close to The Force Awakens' sophomore stint. It looks like Daddy's Home has the advantage for second place, while Joy should be close behind. The Big Short expands wide on Wednesday and its five-day total should be close to the previous two films' three-day totals. On the downside, it looks like both Concussion and Point Break will open on the outside of the top five. The Force Awakens will make more than the entire top ten made this weekend last year, so 2015 will end the year on a very positive note in the year-over-year comparison.
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December 22nd, 2015
Drama starring Christian Bale, Steve Carell, Ryan Gosling and Brad Pitt, expands wide on Wednesday... Full Movie Details.
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December 22nd, 2015
Star Wars: The Force Awakens led the way on the theater average chart and broke the record for highest theater average for a wide release. Its average was $59,982, which is the fifth best opening theater average this year. This is just ahead of Ex Machina and just behind Carol. The Big Short fell 46% to $47,286. A 46% drop-off is bad news for a limited release most of the time, but The Force Awakens hurt all of the holdovers and I'm still bullish on its box office chances for its Wednesday expansion. Carol remained in the $10,000 for the fifth week in a row, this time earning an average of $14,446 in 16 theaters. Mojin: The Lost Legend opened with an average of $12,726 in 22 theaters, while Son of Saul was right behind with an average of $12,643.
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December 20th, 2015
Disney is projecting a $238 million opening weekend for Star Wars Ep. VII: The Force Awakens as of Sunday morning, a figure that will make it, by some margin, the highest-grossing film on opening weekend at the domestic box office. Jurassic World holds the current domestic record, at $208.8 million. Given the $30 million over-performance at home, it’s perhaps a slight surprise that Star Wars isn’t also projected to take the global weekend record, with its expected $517 million falling a little behind Jurassic World’s $524.9 million debut earlier in the year. That’s one of a handful of examples of Star Wars placing second all-time as of Sunday morning, but mostly it’s been a case of broken records all round, and there’s evidence that Disney is playing things safe in their projections, so pretty much no record can be considered out of reach at this point.
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December 15th, 2015
We have a new champion on top of the per theater chart this week, as The Big Short earned one of the best limited release openings of the year. Its average of $88,191 was behind only Steve Jobs for the year and Steve Jobs opened in half as many theaters as The Big Short, 8 to 4. Carol remained strong in second place with an average of $21,105 in 16 theaters. Thankfully it is expanding, but I'm worried the studio waited too long and it won't reach its potential. Yellow Day opened with an average of $13,130 in two theaters. The Danish Girl rounded out the $10,000 club with an average of $10,964 in 24 theaters. By this time next week, it could be over $1 million in total.
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December 13th, 2015
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay—Part 2 will cruise to another victory at the box office this weekend, for the simple reason that In the Heart of the Sea is having a terrible opening. Mockingjay will be down another 40% in its fourth weekend, and will pick up a relatively modest $11.3 million, taking its domestic total to $244.5 million. That confirms it as comfortably the worst-performing film in the franchise, and even a Christmas-season boost at the box office will leave it under $300 million in total. That, however, is unimaginable riches compared to the performance of Heart of the Sea.
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December 12th, 2015
In the Heart of the Sea started out in first place on Friday, but won’t be on top for long. It earned just $3.85 million, putting it ahead of The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2, which earned $3.26 million. However, holdovers have a lot bigger gains on Saturday, while In the Heart of the Sea will likely fall and miss $10 million over the weekend. This is a disaster for a film that cost $100 million to make. This is bad news for Warner Bros., as it is not the first major flop they’ve had this year. Outside of American Sniper, which opened in 2014, they haven’t had a single monster hit (domestic box office of $200 million or more). On the other end, they’ve had three films with $100 million production budgets that flopped this year (Jupiter Ascending, Pan, and now In the Heart of the Sea). Worse still, they have one more $100 million movie coming out this year, Point Break, and it is widely expected to flop as well. For years, Warner Bros. was the biggest studio in the world, but after this year, there might need to be a major shake up to turn things around.
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December 11th, 2015
Earlier this week, The Big Short picked up two SAG nominations and four Golden Globe nominations and now it is opening in limited release. It arguably has louder buzz than the rest of this week’s limited releases combined, and the reviews to back it up. Outside of this film, both The Boy and the World and The Girl in the Book deserve to find an audience.
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December 10th, 2015
The Golden Globes nominations were announced this morning and we are already beginning to see a trend for this year's Awards Season. For the most part, the same films are coming up over and over again. Carol led the way with five awards, while there was a three-way tie for second place with The Big Short, The Revenant and Steve Jobs each picking up four.
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December 9th, 2015
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The Screen Actors Guild nominations were announced today and there are at least a few surprises to talk about. Trumbo led the way with three nominations, but there were six films with two nods apiece. Six!
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December 1st, 2015
November ended on a positive note with a strong Thanksgiving weekend. Even so, the overall numbers were mixed with a lot of misses mixed in with a few hits. It was better than October and we will call that a victory. Meanwhile, December is potentially record-breaking. Actually, given the evidence, it is almost assuredly going to be record-breaking. Star Wars: The Force Awakens has already set a record for the most money taken from ticket pre-sales and the biggest December weekend will fall. The pre-orders alone will guarantee that. On the downside, it is very likely that no film will make as much in total as The Force Awakens will make during its opening weekend. There's a chance no film makes in total as much as The Force Awakens makes during its opening day. There are a few films that have a shot at $100 million. For example, Joy should get there, if it becomes a major player during Awards Season. If not, it will at least come close. Daddy's Home, and to a lesser extent Sisters, could be surprise $100 million hits. However, like the rest of 2015, December is shaping up to be a month of a record-breaking hit and a lot of films that struggle just to get noticed. On the other hand, last December, was a lot more balanced at the top with four films earning more than $100 million, led by The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies. There's a chance The Force Awakens earns more than all four $100 million hits from last year earned combined.
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