May 11th, 2016
The winners of our Boy Oh Boy contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Captain America: Civil War opening weekend were...
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May 9th, 2016
It is officially the summer blockbuster season, which is historically the worst time of year for the home market. We are usually flooded with duds from January and February. However, this year we have the biggest hit of the year so far, Deadpool, which is coming out on DVD, Blu-ray Combo Pack, and 4K. Unless your eyesight is better than 20/20, 4k is not worth the upgrade, but the Blu-ray is the Pick of the Week. It isn't the only contender for that title. Mustang (DVD or Blu-ray) and The Little Girl Who Lives Down the Lane (Blu-ray) are also must haves.
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May 7th, 2016
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It has become common for a horror film or two to be released very early in the year. These films tend to have very low expectations with both critics and with moviegoers. This year, The Boy was one of the first horror releases of the year and while most critics attacked the film, it did rather well at the box office, all things considered. $64 million worldwide isn't enough to be considered a midlevel hit, but it is a solid run for a movie that cost just $10 million to make. Is it better than the critics said it was? Is it a solid horror movie?
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April 29th, 2016
Next weekend is the start of summer and Captain America: Civil War has the weekend all to itself. With the hype and the reviews, it should have no trouble becoming the biggest hit of the year so far. More importantly, it is the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Captain America: Civil War.
The prize this week is The Boy, which just hit Video on Demand this past Tuesday and hit DVD and Blu-ray on the tenth of May.
Greta (Lauren Cohan) is a young American woman who takes a job as a nanny in a remote English village. She soon discovers that the family’s 8-year-old is a life-sized doll that they care for just like a real boy, as a way to cope with the death of their son 20 years prior. After violating a list of strict rules, a series of disturbing and inexplicable events bring Greta’s worst nightmare to life, leading her to believe that the doll is actually alive.
(On a side note, the screener for The Boy has arrived, but I won't be getting to that review this weekend, because the Monthly Preview is due on Sunday.)
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of The Boy on Blu-ray.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of The Boy on Blu-ray.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final copy of The Boy on Blu-ray. a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed movies, most likely.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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February 2nd, 2016
Kung Fu Panda 3 led the way during the weekend with $41.28 million over the weekend. This was below admittedly optimistic predictions, but still great for this time of year. The rest of the new releases were not as strong and it is likely all three will lose money in the end. Fortunately, Kung Fu Panda 3 was strong enough to help the overall box office grow. The overall box office rose 22% to $139 million. More impressively, and more importantly, the box office was 38% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 has pulled in $1.01 billion, reaching the $1 billion mark faster than last year. It wasn't the fastest year to get there, as 2010 holds that record thanks to Avatar. 2016 has regained the lead over 2015 at 1.9% or $19 million. Obviously the usually caveats apply here: It is far too early and that lead is far too small to be of real significance. That said, it is always better to be ahead than to be behind, no matter how small that lead it.
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January 24th, 2016
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With the weekend jam-packed with new releases and Oscar hopefuls, and thrown off course by Winter Storm Jonas, it’s perhaps fitting that a tale of battles against the elements will come out on top. The Revenant will be down 50% from last weekend’s MLK Holiday-inflated number to $16 million, but that will be enough to leapfrog over Ride Along 2 and into first place. The Leonardo DiCaprio film, which remains a good bet for a fistful of Oscars, although perhaps not the major prize, has $119 million to date. Also overtaking Ride Along 2 to move back to second place is Star Wars: The Force Awakens with $14.26 million for a weekend and $879.3 million in total to date. With $1.06 billion internationally, the film is drawing close to becoming the third film to earn over $2 billion worldwide.
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January 23rd, 2016
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While some are blaming the storm for hurting Friday night box office numbers, I think it is wiser to point the finger at the reviews instead. So far, The Boy has earned the best reviews, but with a Tomatometer Score of just 23% positive, that's damning it with faint praise. At the box office, Dirty Grandpa did the best of the new releases, earning second place with $4.2 million. It's early in the year, but it is safe to say its 7% positive reviews will be among the worst of any 2016 release when the year is over. Its CinemaScore was just a B, which is bad. Remember, CinemaScore is based on ratings given to a movie by people who were interested enough to see it on opening day. Anything less than a B+ suggests poor word-of-mouth. It did earn about about 10% more than That Awkward Moment's opening day. Additionally, That Awkward Moment had to deal with The Super Bowl on Sunday, so Dirty Grandpa should have better legs and should pull in $11 million.
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January 22nd, 2016
The 5th Wave started off on a soft note with $475,000 in previews last night. To put this into perspective, The Giver, another Young Adult Novel Adaptation, earned $750,000 during its previews back in 2014. That film only managed an opening of $12.31 million and a domestic total of $45.09 million. At this point, it looks like The 5th Wave will open with less than $10 million.
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January 21st, 2016
Three wide releases are coming out this week, all of which are expected to earn similar openings. None of which are expected to compete for the top five. The 5th Wave is the latest Young Adult Adaptation and as I'm writing this at about 10 am on Thursday, it is still the only new release with any reviews. Dirty Grandpa is the widest release of the week, but with no reviews, it is hard to judge how well it will do. Finally there's The Boy. If it can match The Forest, I'm sure STX Entertainment will be happy. The weakness in the new releases doesn't mean we won't have a new number one film, as The Revenant seems poised to climb to first place over the weekend. This weekend last year, American Sniper remained dominant with nearly $65 million. It's a near certainty that all three new releases won't make that much this year. There's a chance the top five combined won't make that much this year. 2016 is going to lose in the year-over-year comparison.
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January 1st, 2016
2016 will begin the same way 2015 ended, with Star Wars: The Force Awakens on top. In fact, three of the five films that have the best shot at box office success in January are The Force Awakens, The Hateful Eight, and The Revenant, all of which opened in December. There are two true January releases that could also do really well, for this time of year: Ride Along 2 and Kung Fu Panda 3. The rest of the releases are just hoping to become midlevel hits. Last January, American Sniper dominated earning more than $300 million. Its success could prevent 2016 from being ahead in the year-over-year comparison by the end of the month, but this year does have better depth.
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