June 22nd, 2013
It was a bad week for new releases. Granted, one of them earned top spot and there were three in the top five of the DVD sales chart, but it was a matter of terrible competition. Cloud Atlas led the way with 195,000 units / $2.92 million on DVD and 141,000 units / $3.30 million on Blu-ray. Its opening week Blu-ray share was 42%, which is better than most films. However, at this point having a good Blu-ray share is way too little, far too late. The film cost over $100 million to make, and total sales of 336,000 units / $5.04 million on DVD and 214,000 units / $5.12 million after three weeks of release is not nearly enough.
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May 13th, 2013
There are not a lot of new releases on the home market this week, and there are very few that are prime releases. The best-selling release is Dexter: Season Seven on Blu-ray, which is worth picking up, but the lack of extras prevents it from being the Pick of the Week. For that I'm going with a lesser known title, The Unbelievable Truth, which is coming out on DVD and Blu-ray this week.
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February 14th, 2013
For the third weekend in a row, Django Unchained earned first place on the international chart. This weekend it earned $19.55 million on 5,090 screens in 65 markets for totals of $187.71 million internationally and $342.23 million worldwide. It has now made more than Inglourious Basterds made worldwide, and it is a week away from becoming Quentin Tarantino's undisputed biggest hit of his career. Plus, it has yet to open in Japan and a few other markets, so it might have more milestones ahead.
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February 6th, 2013
Django Unchained won the international race with $30.28 million on 5,990 screens in 65 markets for a running total of $158.36 million. Worldwide, its total has reached $309.31 million. It is just a week away from overtaking Inglourious Basterds as Quentin Tarantino's biggest hit of his career. The film had no major market openings, which makes its hold more impressive. Its best market was Germany, where it made $6.61 million on 708 screens over the weekend for a total of $30.78 million after three.
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December 13th, 2012
The Hollywood Foreign Press Association announced their nominations and the same list of films that have been mentioned since the beginning of Awards Season were rewarded today. Lincoln led the way with seven nods, while Argo and Django Unchained were close behind with five.
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November 29th, 2012
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2 held firm in first place with $104.21 million on 12,818 screens in 73 markets for a two-week total of $365.46 million intentionally and $592.83 million worldwide. By this time next week, it should be the biggest hit in the franchise. This past weekend, the film opened in Germany earning first place with $12.82 million on 765 screens for a total opening of $16.67 million. Its best holdover was in the U.K. where it made $8.56 million on 559 screens over the weekend for a total of $43.22 million. This is a strong result, but it was down 66%, which is troubling. It was better in Russia down 62% to $8.30 million on 1,380 screens for a total of $36.28 million after two. A 62% decline is actually average for the market, more or less. The film has very few markets left to open in, but it is already profitable, so the studio should be very happy.
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November 21st, 2012
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2 opened internationally and dominated the chart with $199.45 million on 13,400 screens in 61 markets during its first weekend of release. It opened in a number of major markets, scoring first place in all of them. In the U.K., the film made $25.20 million on 558 screens, while it also topped $20 million in Russia with $21.97 million on 1,366. In France, the film pulled in $16.56 million on 823 screens, while in Brazil it earned $12.24 million on 1,213 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $17.87 million. In Spain it made $11.76 million on 1,052 screens over the weekend and $12.11 million including previews. It earned $10.58 million on 856 screens over the weekend in Italy for a total opening on $13.34 million. Mexico was close behind with $9.94 million on 2,642 screens over the weekend and $12.29 million in total. It didn't hit the $10 million market in South Korea; in fact, it barely earned first place there with $5.91 million on 665 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $7.17 million. A local hit, A Werewolf Boy was right behind, but more on that below.
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November 15th, 2012
For the third weekend in a row, Skyfall remained in first place on the international chart with $89.08 million on 11,909 screens in 80 markets for a total of $429.63 million. This is the biggest international total for the franchise and it is very close to topping the worldwide total of all of the pre-Daniel Craig Bond films. Worldwide, the film has $520.19 million and is on pace to add at least $200 million more, likely $300 million to its worldwide total before it is done. There were no major market openings this weekend, but the film did become the biggest non-3D release in the U.K. with $114.50 million, including $16.61 million on 589 screens this past weekend. It is fifth on the all-time chart in that market, but it likely overtook Toy Story 3 ($116 million) and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2 ($117 million) already. Up next is Titanic at $127 million and Avatar at $149 million. I wouldn't be willing to bet money it would become the all time leader, but I also wouldn't bet money against it.
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November 5th, 2012
Wreck-It-Ralph's opening was on the very high end of expectations, which was a pleasant surprise over the weekend. Also, Flight beat all but the most bullish predictions. Even The Man with the Iron Fists did a little better than expected. Overall, the box office soared 49% from last weekend to $138 million. It was also higher compared to this weekend last year by a very impressive 21%. November certainly got off to a great start. Year-to-date, 2012 is ahead of 2011's pace by just under 4.0% at $8.89 billion to $8.55 billion. After a couple weak months, the box office has shown great strength and it would take a disastrous collapse for 2012 to not come out ahead.
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November 2nd, 2012
There's only one truly wide release this week, Wreck-It-Ralph, but it is opening in more than 3,700 theaters and with reviews that match its pre-release buzz. There are also two films opening in a little under 2,000 theaters, Flight and The Man with the Iron Fists, but both are earning good reviews and could have some impact at the box office by earning places in the top five. Last year the box office was led by Puss in Boots with $33.05 million during its sophomore stint. I think Wreck-It-Ralph will easily top that. The new releases were Tower Heist and A Very Harold and Kumar Christmas, which combined pulled in $36.98 million. I really doubt Flight and Iron Fists will do the same. So unless Wreck-It-Ralph has close to a $50 million opening, November will start off on a losing note in the year-over-year comparison.
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October 31st, 2012
The winners of our Forecast is Cloudy contest were determined and they are...
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October 29th, 2012
It was a really bad weekend for new releases with none of the new films meeting expectations and two of them opening below the Mendoza Line. Argo climbed to top spot over the weekend. It used to be quite common for films to climb to the top of the chart, but the market has changed and opening weekends have become so important, so this feat is now very rare. Cloud Atlas was the best of the new releases, but "Best" here is a dubious title, as it barely grabbed second place. Silent Hill: Revolution 3D barely grabbed fifth place, while the less said about Fun Size and Chasing Mavericks the better. The overall box office collapsed by 28% compared to last week hitting just $93 million. It also fell compared to last year, the box office was down 11%, which is disappointing after a series of wins. However, last year Puss in Boots debuted and it was more of a November release opening a week early. Year-to-date, 2012 is still ahead of 2011 with the margin at $8.71 billion to $8.40 billion, or 3.8%. The goal going forward is to maintain this lead, while any growth would be more than welcome.
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October 28th, 2012
A terrible weekend for new releases will leave Argo the weekend winner by default, according to studio estimates released on Sunday morning. The biggest disappointment of the weekend is Cloud Atlas, a pricey ($102 million, according to reports) sci-fi epic from Lana and Andy Wachowski, and Tom Tykwer, that will open with $9.4 million or so, and won't be helped by a C+ CinemaScore. Silent Hill: Revelation 3D confirms that it won't be the new Halloween franchise by opening with a projected $8m, but that looks positively healthy compared to the openings of Fun Size and Chasing Mavericks. With those films projected to open with $4.06 million and $2.2 million respectively, this pre-Halloween weekend looks like a bloodbath.
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October 25th, 2012
There are four new films coming out in wide release this week and depending on who you ask, there are four films that have a shot at earning first place. Last Friday, I assumed Cloud Atlas would win, but its reviews have taken a major hit and it will likely finish below the overall positive level. This leaves an opening for Silent Hill: Revolution 3D, which is opening in the most theaters, but it has no reviews and direct competition. Argo has been leading the way on the daily chart and there's a chance it will climb into first place this weekend. There is also a chance that Paranormal Activity will retain first place, although it will have to avoid the predicted collapse. So which film will come out on top? I'm not sure. On the other hand, I'm fairly sure the other two wide releases will fail to find a substantial audience. Fun Size is opening in 2,800 theaters, but very few think it will do well. Even making the top five is likely out of the question. Meanwhile, Chasing Mavericks is opening in just over 2,000 theaters and it is another film that will likely miss the top five, maybe even the top ten. Compared to last year, 2012 is in trouble. Puss in Boots opened with just over $34 million and there's a small chance all four wide releases won't make that much combined this weekend. There's almost no chance 2012 will come out ahead, unless at least two of the new releases are much bigger than expected.
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October 18th, 2012
Next week there are four films opening wide, but not really. Cloud Atlas is opening in less than 2000 theaters, while Chasing Mavericks is also in the same range. Fun Size's theater count estimate is 2800 theaters, but it is a live action kids movie with a female lead and these rarely do well. Silent Hill: Revolution could open in more than 3000 theaters, but its buzz is pretty weak. While Cloud Atlas could open in the fewest theaters, it still has the loudest buzz and reviews are amazing. I think it will be the biggest hit of the week and as such, it is the target film in this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Cloud Atlas.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Degrassi: Season 11, Part 2 on DVD.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Degrassi: Season 11, Part 2 on DVD.
And finally, one additional entrant will be chosen and they will win the final copy of a Degrassi: Season 11, Part 2 on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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October 1st, 2012
2012 continues its downward path. After a record-breaking spring, thanks to The Hunger Games, and a record-breaking start to the summer, thanks to The Avengers, the box office hasn't been able to maintain any real momentum. For most of the month, September was no better than August and now the year-over-year gains are just a little more than inflation. October will need to improve or 2012 will be in real trouble. Unfortunately, that might be tough. There's not a single film coming out in October that looks like it will be a guaranteed $100 million hit and there are only two films with a realistic chance, Taken 2 and Paranormal Activity 4. (There's also Cloud Atlas, which is a wild card. That movie could bomb or be the biggest hit of the month and I wouldn't be surprised either way.) There is a chance all three will get to the century mark, but there's a better chance none of them will. Last October, two films cracked $100 million: Paranormal Activity 3 and Puss in Boots, with the latter nearly reaching $150 million. I don't see any film coming close to matching that figure. On the other hand, last year there were six films that one could accurately describe as bombs. So while 2012 is weaker at the top, it could have better depth than 2011 did. Let's hope so, because we can't afford more bad news.
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