January 6th, 2012
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2 climbed into first place on the Blu-ray sales chart with 232,000 units / $4.63 million over the week for a total of 4.79 million units / $102.50 million after seven weeks of release. It became only the third Blu-ray to reach the $100 million milestone.
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January 4th, 2012
There were only four new releases to reach the top 30 on this week's DVD sales chart, and only one of those placed in the top five. The Hangover II rose to first place with 521,000 units / $5.20 million for the week and 2.26 million units / $31.22 million after three. This is barely more than half what the original sold during its first week of release.
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December 20th, 2011
Christmas is less than a week away and there are a few releases that would make great last minute gifts. There are also very few releases overall so expect a short list this week. These great last minute gift ideas include Midnight in Paris on DVD or Blu-ray, Dolphin Tale in 3D Combo Pack and Futurama: Volume Six on DVD or Blu-ray. However, for Pick of the Week, I'm going with Warrior on Blu-ray Combo Pack. It's a great movie and there are plenty of extras on the DVD and the Blu-ray includes a Picture-in-Picture track.
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September 12th, 2011
The weekend after the Labor Day long weekend is often the worst weekend of the year, and that appears to be the case this time around. No film matched Thursday's predictions, although a couple came relatively close, like Contagion. Unfortunately, the rest of the new releases really bombed and most of the holdovers fell significantly more than expected. This led to the box office falling 24% from last weekend to just $82 million. This is the lowest it's been all year, and lower than last year, but by less than 1%. Unless next weekend will be even worse, and it is almost hard to imagine that as a possibility, this will be the lowest point for the year. On the other hand, there's a chance that we don't dip below this level for a long, long time, if ever. Given population growth and inflation, hitting these low points are less likely each year.
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September 1st, 2011
Summer officially ends at the box office this weekend, although looking at the numbers it's clear that summer ended weeks ago. The selection of new releases includes two horror films that were not screened for critics and a film that I don't think it would be unfair to call busted Oscar bait. There is a chance all three films will bomb and The Help will remain in first place for the third week in a row. On the opposite end of that scale, all three films could find an audience and 2011 could squeak out a win over 2010.
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August 29th, 2011
Hurricane Irene battered the east coast, which may have had a bigger impact at the box office than some were expecting, but at least it wasn't worst case scenario levels. The overall box office plummeted 25% to just $93 million. That wasn't the worst weekend of the year, but it came uncomfortably close. Compared to last year, the box office was down down 19%, meaning the year-to-date decline worsened. With 2011 down by 4.3% at $7.28 billion to $7.60 billion, the year is running out of time to make up the difference. If we go into the holiday season down by $320 million, it might be impossible to make up the ground, no matter how strong the Christmas releases are.
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August 28th, 2011
With many East Coast theaters closed on Saturday and Sunday thanks to Hurricane Irene, and a weak selection of new movies in the first place, this is shaping up to be one of the worst weekends of 2011. In fact, it could end up as the worst, depending on how Sunday's business works out. There's a lot of uncertainty in this week's estimates because of incomplete reports for Saturday and the unknown impact of the storm in the North East. One thing seems certain, though: The Help will top the chart again. It is expected to earn another $14.3 million, according to Disney, for a total of $96.6 million. It is still enjoying the best per theater average in the top ten, so it will stay in theaters for a while.
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August 25th, 2011
Three wide releases this week, Colombiana, Don't Be Afraid of the Dark and My Idiot Brother, but it is likely that none will pose much of a threat to The Help, which is likely to repeat at the top of the box office. There could be an interesting race for second place, as there's no clear consensus on which new release is the strongest or the weakest. Unfortunately, this is because all three are equally weak. Worse still, this weekend last year saw two films earn more than $20 million, which is a mark no film this weekend will match. On the other hand, those were the only two films to crack $10 million, while there could be four, or perhaps even five films do the same this weekend. Perhaps depth will help 2011 come out with a win, but I wouldn't be willing to bet money on that.
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August 19th, 2011
As summer winds down, it becomes harder to figure out which film most deserves to be the target film in our weekly box office prediction contest. Colombiana appears to be opening the widest, but I think Don't Be Afraid of the Dark will be the bigger hit, so I'm picking it to be the target film. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Don't Be Afraid of the Dark.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of House of Payne: Volume Seven on DVD.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a copy of House of Payne: Volume Eight on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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August 1st, 2011
It's that time of year again, the time where we try to guess when Summer ends. According to the real world, Summer ends on the 22nd of September, but in the movie business, summer ends suddenly one weekend in August, and it's never really predictable which weekend that will be. There is some reason to be optimistic, as July ended on a relatively strong note. Both films that were predicted to be monster hits, Transformers: Dark of the Moon and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2, were monster hits. And for every potential $100 million hit that missed expectations, there was another film that topped them. If this momentum can carry forward, then perhaps summer can be extended for for one or two more weeks. August of 2010 was a good end to the Summer with two $100 million movies and a few mid-level hits. I'm not sure if 2011 will be able to replicate that performance, but Summer could end on a high note.
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