This graph shows Johnny Depp’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
It’s a rather busy week for limited releases, but few of them are earning overwhelmingly positive reviews. In fact, some on this list couldn’t even make it to the overall positive level. There are some films that are worth checking out, including Last Year at Marienbad, Walking on Water, and The Souvenir. Of these three, I suspect The Souvenir will have the best box office run.
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October continued 2018’s phenomenal box office run, for the most part. There were a couple of films that missed expectations by $10 million or more, but on the other hand, Vemon and Halloween were smash hits and are now the first and second biggest October debuts of all time. Furthermore, 2018’s lead over 2017 is, as I’m writing this, just shy of $1 billion and if 2018 can maintain this lead, it will be one of the biggest year-over-year increases of all time. It won’t. The fun times end now. Why is that? Last November was amazing. There were only eight wide releases, but six of them earned more than $100 million. Three of those hit $200 million, including Thor: Ragnarok, which earned over $300 million. This year, there are a lot more movies opening in November, but it is a case of quantity over quality. No movie is expected to come close to $300 million and it would take a bit of luck just to have five $100 million hits. The film I’m looking forward to the most is Ralph Breaks the Internet, while it, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, and Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald are all aiming for $200 million this month. Fortunately, even if 2018 is behind 2017’s pace by around $300 million, 2018 has built up such a large lead that it should still go into December with an insurmountable lead at the box office.
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February was an amazing month, thanks mainly to Black Panther, but Fifty Shades Freed and Peter Rabbit were also significant hits and overall the month was a massive improvement over last February. Looking forward, there’s nothing opening in March that will earn as much in total as Black Panther did during its opening weekend. That said, A Wrinkle in Time and Ready Player One should have no trouble getting to $100 million, while Tomb Raider has a 50/50 chance of getting there. Unfortunately, compared to last March, this is still a pittance. There’s a chance that no film opening this March will earn as much in total as Beauty and the Beast opened with last march. We will need Black Panther to have good legs to keep 2018 ahead of 2017 by the end of the month.
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October wasn’t a good month; then again, outside of a few bright spots, the overall box office has been a disaster since early summer. I would love to say November will turn things around, but, while it should be better, in this case “better” is a relative term. There are two films on this list with a chance at $300 million, Thor: Ragnarok and Justice League, while Coco is nearly a guarantee for $200 million. By comparison, last November had a similar result with three films earning between $200 million and $300 million, but none topping that figure. This means, if Thor: Ragnarok and Justice League both get to that milestone, then 2017 could cut into 2016’s lead during the month. It will still take a minor miracle for 2017 to catch up in the end, but just cutting the lead in half by the end of December would be a reason to celebrate at this point.
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April is over and thank god for that. The Fate of the Furious is currently the only film that was better than a midlevel hit, while Going in Style might end up being the second-biggest release of the month. On the low end, there were seven films on last month’s list that didn’t even manage to open in truly wide release (2,000 or more theaters). Fortunately, May looks a lot brighter. Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 should dominate the chart and get the month off to a fast start. Furthermore, every week there’s at least one film with a reasonable chance of earning $100 million domestically. Additionally, last May wasn’t particularly strong, so that should help 2017 overall. Granted, Captain America: Civil War earned more than $400 million, so the month got off to a fast start, but films struggled the rest of the way. The second-biggest film was X-Men: Apocalypse at just $155 million, while only one other movie, The Angry Birds Movie, earned more than $100 million. Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 should at least be competitive with Captain America: Civil War, allowing 2017 to win thanks to its superior depth.
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April started on a soft note and ended weak, but thanks to The Jungle Book, overall the month was actually really good. That's what happens when you get a surprise $300 million hit. This bodes well for May, which is both a slow month and a fantastic month. There are only four weekends and only eight movies coming out, but of those eight films, five have a shot at $100 million. The potential blockbusters are led by Captain America: Civil War, which is not only going to be the biggest hit of the month, but according to a Fandango survey, it is the most anticipated film of the summer. (On a side note, Finding Dory is the most anticipated family film of the summer and Ghostbusters is the most anticipated comedy of the summer. I was surprised by the last result.) Both Alice Through the Looking Glass and X-Men: Apocalypse have real shots at $200 million. One of them could get to $300 million, if they weren't opening against each other. Overall, the month looks excellent. Even better, last May there was only one monster hit, The Avengers: Age of Ultron, and most analysts think Captain America: Civil War will beat it at the box office. (There's also the issue of the misalignment in the weekends, which hurt April, but will really help May.)
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There's no major release this week. I was tempted to give Spectre the Pick of the Week honor, but the screener arrived too late to get the review done over the weekend. None of the big releases are worth the Pick of the Week title. There are a number of smaller releases that are worth considering for Pick of the Week, including The Kid, which tops the list.
On a side note, this week's list is a little shorter than I would have liked, because the people who run Amazon are morons. They've changed the New Releases page, again, making it even harder to find a list of new releases for the week. Additionally, there are some films, like Black Mass, that weren't on the list of releases for this week before the changes were made. I understand why physical stores reorganize every once and a while, because if people have to walk to the store to find something, they are more likely to buy something else on a whim. However, these people physically walked to the store, so if they don't buy what they came for, it will be a wasted effort. On the other hand, people go to Amazon by clicking a button. Making it harder to find new releases for that week won't make it more likely they will buy something else. It means they are more likely to not buy anything at all.
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The Screen Actors Guild nominations were announced today and there are at least a few surprises to talk about. Trumbo led the way with three nominations, but there were six films with two nods apiece. Six!
Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials will win the weekend at the box office, according to studio estimates released on Sunday, with a very solid $30.3 million. That’s down a bit from The Maze Runner’s $32.5 million this weekend last year, but the difference is small enough that a good performance on Sunday and slight increases in the actuals for Friday and Saturday could actually push the sequel slightly ahead. Either way, the franchise seems on fairly solid ground, although the increase in budget for the second film to $61 million from $34 million the first time around suggests it won’t be as profitable. As always, international box office will be key, and early signs there are good, with $78 million already in the bank.
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The Fall Season starts in earnest this weekend with the release of a Young Adult, dystopian-future action movie and an Older Adult dramatic thriller (not to mention a couple of pieces of counter-programming) vying for box office dollars, and, in one case, Oscar attention. Both films are getting off to good starts, based on Friday’s estimates. Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials is off to the best start with $11 million for the day and a projected weekend around $30 million. Black Mass will have to settle for second place with $8.8 million on Friday and around $25 million for the weekend.
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It's a sort of busy week this week, with two wide releases, The Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials and Black Mass, as well as two limited releases with a shot at reaching the top ten, Captive and Everest. The Scorch Trials is the latest Young Adult Adaptation franchise. The first film crossed $100 million domestically, so this one hopes to grow at the box office. Black Mass is early Oscar-bait, but the reviews suggest it won't quite get there. Captive is the latest faith-based film and it likely won't go anywhere. Everest gets an early IMAX opening before its wide release next week. This weekend last year was the weekend The Maze Runner opened. Since sequels tend to open faster than their predecessors, 2015 should come out on top in the year-over-year comparison.
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As September begins, the box office is in a slump. August was terrible and only Straight Outta Compton escaped with its dignity intact. Fortunately, we expected August to be terrible, so the box office isn't any lower than anticipated. As for September, there are two wide releases expected to earn more than $100 million, which is better than most years. Those two films are Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials and Hotel Transylvania 2, both sequels. There are four other films that could become midlevel hits, so we have good depth as well. By comparison, last September there were also two $100 million hits, The Maze Runner and The Equalizer. However, there were only two midlevel hits, so it appears this year has better depth. Frankly, 2015 has such a large lead over 2014 that all it needs to do is maintain pace for the rest of the year to be considered a success. If September can help 2015 grow its lead, then the overall industry should be very happy.
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Into the Woods first debuted 30 years ago in 1985 starting its Broadway run a year later. The show's original Broadway run earned three Tony Awards and five Drama Desk Awards, while the 2002 revival was nearly as well received with award voters. It is not a surprise that the film was turned into a big budget musical. However, does the theatrical version of Into the Woods live up to the source material? Will fans of musicals who haven't seen the original like it?
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After smashing the January weekend record last weekend, American Sniper is enjoying a very solid second-weekend hold. So solid, in fact, that it will also have the third-best January weekend. If it drops less than 35% next weekend, it will share with Avatar the records for the top six January weekends, each movie having topped $42 million three times. Sniper’s expected weekend this time around is $64.365m, according to Warner Bros. Sunday morning projection.
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2014 is over and for the most part, December was a soft ending to a weak year. This is bad news for two reasons. Firstly, it means the overall box office is still soft and it is unlikely that January will start strong. Secondly, last January was a great month, thanks in part to Frozen and other holdovers. The slump can't last forever and Taken 3 should help 2015 get off to a reasonably fast start and it even has a shot at $100 million. American Sniper got off to a really fast start in limited release, so it too could be a hit when it expands wide. By comparison, last January was led by Ride Along, but there were only two other films that didn't completely bomb. I want to say 2015 will start out on a winning note, but given the box office losing streak, it will likely pay to be pessimistic.
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Tusk is the latest film from Kevin Smith, who has a mixed track record at the box office. He has made some amazing movies, like Clerks and Chasing Amy. However, he has also made some serious misses, like Cop Out. Is this one of his better films? Or is this another recent miss?
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With the recent weak performance of films such as Transcendence and Edge of Tomorrow at the box office, there’s been a lot of talk recently about how much actors and actresses are really worth to a film. The poor performance of these films hasn’t come as a huge surprise to followers of the Bankability Index, which produces valuations considerably below the $20 million that Johnny Depp reportedly earned from his lead role in Transcendence, and we thought this is a good opportunity to look at what the Index says about the most valuable actors and actresses in the business.
With Angelina Jolie making headlines for all the right reasons for her starring role in Maleficent, it seemed only fitting to start with an analysis of the most valuable actresses in Hollywood. For this chart, we’ve taken each star’s worldwide Bankability Index and divided it by the number of films they make each year to get an estimate of the average value they bring to a film, as of June, 2014.
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March was stronger than expected when compared to 2013 with four films earning $100 million or more, led by Divergent. (Not all of them have gotten there yet, but they are certain to reach that milestone before they are done their box office runs.) It wasn't a blow-out victory, on the other hand, as a few weekends the ticket sales were lower in 2014 than they were during the same weekend in 2013. April looks really strong with Captain America: The Winter Soldier leading the way. This film should top $200 million over the weekend, while it isn't the only film that should crack the century mark, as Rio 2 is also on track for $100 million. This is great news, as no film last April reached $100 million. Granted, 42 came close and Oblivion wasn't far behind, but The Winter Soldier should earn more than those two films earned combined giving 2014 a comfortable lead over 2013 over the full month.
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Before The Lone Ranger even hit theaters, there was a lot of bad buzz preceding it. Part of the reason was the film's budget. With a combined production and P&A budget of around $400 million, the film would need to make more than $600 million worldwide to have a hope of breaking even sometime during its home market run. However, previous to this film's release, the biggest western was Dances with Wolves, which barely cracked $400 million. On the other hand, Johnny Depp and Gore Verbinski helped revitalize the Pirate genre, so perhaps lightning can strike twice. Nope. The film bombed. But is it as bad as its box office numbers? Or was it unfairly overlooked by moviegoers?
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On Tuesday we launched The Numbers Bankability Index, a new service to help assess the value that different people bring to the industry, from actors and actresses to directors, screenwriters, producers, and anyone else involved in the creative process of making a movie. In this article, I'll look more deeply into how the Index is compiled, and how we use the tools behind it to analyze questions about people in movies.
It's July 4th, which means it is the Independence Day long weekend, one of the busiest weekends of the year. There are two wide releases looking to compete with the holdovers for box office dollars, but it is clear that Despicable Me 2 has far more box office potential than The Lone Ranger has. Meanwhile, Kevin Hart: Let-Me-Explain should grab a spot in the top ten. Meanwhile, Monsters University, The Heat, and the rest of the holdovers should help the overall box office climb higher than last year.
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For the most part, June was a really strong month at the box office with nearly every film either matching expectations, or at least coming close enough to call it a victory. Looking forward, there are a dozen films opening wide in July, more or less. One of them, The Smurfs 2, is opening on a Wednesday, so I'm going to hold off talking about that movie till the August preview. Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain is opening in less than 1000 theaters, but it has a shot at reaching the top ten during its opening weekend. If we include both of them, there are twelve films, but I think it is better to stick with the ten truly wide, truly July openings. Of these, Despicable Me 2 is clearly going to be the biggest hit at the box office. It could become the second biggest hit of the year so far. It is not the only film that could be a $100 million hit. In fact, there are six films opening in July that I think have a better than 50% chance of reaching that level. There is currently only one film that I think won't at least become a midlevel hit. By comparison in 2012, there were three $100 million movies, led by The Dark Knight Rises, but the rest of the new releases struggled. There's no chance any movie opening this month will top $400 million, in fact, it is quite possible no film will get to $300 million. That said, 2013 has a lot better depth, so it might come out on top in the end.
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There are only a few days left till Christmas and we are officially in the panic zone for gift shopping. This week we have our final installment of our annual Holiday Gift Guide. Part I dealt with first run releases, Part II dealt with TV on DVD releases, Part III dealt with limited releases, foreign titles, and classics. This week, we deal with some music, books, games, as well as releases from the first three parts that I forgot the first time around. As always, there are quite a few in that last category. (I also use this time to burn off some releases that arrived late. This way I can get through all of the late reviews quicker than normal and actually have enough time to celebrate Christmas.)
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It's the first week of the month and there is a wide variety of releases worth checking out, but not exactly a strong selection of best sellers. The biggest first-run release is Dark Shadows and while I'm looking forward to possibly reviewing the Blu-ray Combo Pack, I don't think it will be a huge hit. New Girl: Season One and The Princess Bride: 25th Anniversary Edition Blu-ray look great, but I'm waiting for the screeners to make final decisions. I won't get a chance to review Universal Classic Monsters: The Essential Collection, but it is a contender for Pick of the Week. The winner of that honor is CinderellaBlu-ray, which is a classic, even if it is a little old-fashioned.
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