2015 Preview: January

January 1, 2015

2014 is over and for the most part, December was a soft ending to a weak year. This is bad news for two reasons. Firstly, it means the overall box office is still soft and it is unlikely that January will start strong. Secondly, last January was a great month, thanks in part to Frozen and other holdovers. The slump can't last forever and Taken 3 should help 2015 get off to a reasonably fast start and it even has a shot at $100 million. American Sniper got off to a really fast start in limited release, so it too could be a hit when it expands wide. By comparison, last January was led by Ride Along, but there were only two other films that didn't completely bomb. I want to say 2015 will start out on a winning note, but given the box office losing streak, it will likely pay to be pessimistic.

Weekend of January 2^nd, 2015

The first weekend of the year has only one wide release: The Woman in Black 2: Angel of Death. This is a sequel that is earning very little buzz compared to its predecessor and I seriously doubt it will find a major audience in theaters. Likewise, this weekend last year, the only wide release was Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones, another sequel that was earning very little buzz compared to its predecessors. Unfortunately, Angel of Death isn't starting from the same position that The Marked Ones did, so it won't have as strong of an opening. Unless the holdovers outperform last year's batch, 2015 will start out losing in the year-over-year comparison.

Weekend of January 9^th, 2015

There are two or three wide releases during the second weekend of the year. Only Taken 3 is opening wide, but Selma and possibly Inherent Vice will be expanding wide. Inherent Vice's per theater average is dropping faster than most limited releases, so it might not last two more weeks. Selma on the other hand, could get a boost from Awards Season nominations, but even at the highest end, it is a midlevel hit and no more. Taken 3, or Tak3n as it is sometimes written, will have no trouble becoming the biggest hit of the week and it might even become the only $100 million hit of the month. It probably won't get there, but it will likely at least get close enough to be considered a financial success. This weekend last year, Lone Survivor expanded wide earning $37.85 million during its first wide weekend. The only other wide release was The Legend of Hercules, which made $8.87 million during its opening weekend. Taken 3 might earn $40 million, while Selma should top Hercules, so combined 2015 has a shot at winning the year-over-year comparison. It should be close.

Weekend of January 16^th, 2015

There are four, possibly five films opening or expanding wide this Martin Luther King, Jr weekend. The Wedding Ringer is the biggest of the films opening wide and it should have little trouble becoming at least a midlevel hit. Kevin Hart's breakout hit, Ride Along, opened this time last year and there's obviously going to be a lot of people comparing the two films, but you shouldn't get too enthusiastic. Its biggest competition is already in theaters. American Sniper opened in limited release on Christmas day and while it likely won't be an Awards Season player, it could be this year's Lone Survivor. I don't think it will do as well, but it does have the potential to be a surprise $100 million hit. Blackhat is a cyber-thriller, which is a genre that has never been huge at the box office. There is also Paddington, a film based on popular book series for children, at least it is popular in the U.K. I'm not sure it is popular enough here to warrant a movie. Finally there's Vice, which I no longer think is opening truly wide. There were four wide releases this weekend last year, including Ride Along, which earned $41.52 million during its opening weekend. I don't think any film will match that figure, so 2015 might suffer an early loss in the year-over-year comparison.

Weekend of January 23^rd, 2015

It's the weekend after a long weekend, which is bad news for the box office. None of the three films opening wide this weekend look like they will become even midlevel hits. The Boy Next Door is earning quiet buzz and rather weak buzz at that. On the other hand, it is reportedly a low-budget thriller, so it won't need to be a hit to break even eventually. Mortdecai is earning the loudest buzz for the week, but the buzz is also mixed with some thinking it is too bizarre to find an audience in theaters. Up next is Strange Magic, a digitally animated family film. The buzz here is deafeningly quiet. There was one other film that was supposed to open wide this week, The Loft; however, that film has been pushed back a week and no longer appears to be opening wide. There is some good news. This weekend last year, there was only one wide release, I, Frankenstein, which only managed $8.61 million during its opening weekend. All three new releases this year should open with at least that much, if not more. If the holdovers can hold up their end of the bargain, then 2015 should win the year-over-year comparison. I choose to remain cautiously optimistic.

Mortdecai

Strange Magic

Black or White

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: No Official Site?
Distributor: Sony
Release Date: January 30th, 2015
MPAA Rating: PG-13 on appeal for brief strong language, thematic material involving drug use and drinking, and for a fight.
Source: Original Screenplay
Major Genre: Drama
Keywords: Single Parent, Widow, Death of a Spouse, Death of a Child, Troubled Pregnancy, Died During Childbirth, Lawyers, Courtroom Drama, African-American, Interracial Romance, Race Relations, and more
Directed By: Mike Binder
Written By: Mike Binder
Starring: Kevin Costner, Octavia Spencer, Jillian Estell, and others
Production Budget: Estimated at $20 million
Box Office Potential: $25 million

Kevin Costner stars as a widow raising his granddaughter, Jillian Estell, after his wife died in a car crash and his daughter died during childbirth. Their family is disrupted when the other grandparent, Octavia Spencer, sues for custody on behalf of her son, Andre Holland. The film got an Oscar-qualifying run early in December, but its early reviews suggest that was pointless. Additionally, neither Kevin Costner nor Mike Binder have a good track-record at the box office. Finally, the buzz is just too quiet for me to be bullish.

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: projectalmanac.com/
Distributor: Paramount
Release Date: January 30th, 2015
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for some language and sexual content.
Source: Original Screenplay
Major Genre: Adventure
Keywords: Time Travel, Found Footage, Filmed By a Character, Delayed Release, and more
Directed By: Dean Israelite
Written By: Jason Harry Pagan and Andrew Deutschman
Starring: Jonny Weston, Sofia Black D'Elia, and others
Production Budget: Reported at $12 million
Box Office Potential: $35 million

A group of teens find plans for a time machine and build it. At first they use it, but soon they begin to abuse it. This film is reminding a lot of people of Chronicle, only the kids find plans for a time machine instead of get super powers from a magic cave. Also, I think this film is aimed at a younger demographic. Project Almanac's box office chances are likely much weaker, as it was originally scheduled for a release last February, but was pulled from the schedule rather abruptly and it is now being dumped in theaters in January. That's a terrible sign. On the plus side, its first review is positive.