This graph shows Clint Eastwood’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
One of this weekend’s two new wide releases will have to do much, much better than expected to challenge Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings at the top of the chart this weekend. The Marvel movie should come in with something around $20 million (or possibly a bit higher), and there’s a strong possibility that will be more than double the second-placed film. If Cry Macho and CopShop both falter, Shang-Chi might even earn three or four times as much as its nearest competition.
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After two weeks on top of the theater count list, and more importantly dominating both the domestic and international box office, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings drops from 4,300 to 4,070 locations to begin its third week. The latest Marvel film has collected a stellar $152 million domestically in its first 13 days of release. Providing stiff competition this week is the latest feature from Warner Bros. in Cry Macho. The neo-Western drama starring and directed by screen legend Clint Eastwood follows a former Texas rodeo star who is hired by his former boss to retrieve his son from Mexico. Cry Macho is estimated to arrive in 3,900 theaters. Also opening wide this week is the action/thriller CopShop, starring Gerard Butler and Frank Grillo. The movie from Open Road Films is set to debut in 3,005 locations.
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A one-time rodeo star and washed up horse breeder who, in 1978, takes a job from an ex-boss to bring the man’s young son home and away from his alcoholic mom. Crossing rural Mexico on their back way to Texas, the unlikely pair faces an unexpectedly challenging journey, during which the world-weary horseman may find his own sense of redemption through teaching the boy what it means to be a good man.
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Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings was a welcome surprise at the box office last week as the latest Marvel film tallied up an impressive $75 million during its first weekend, and currently carries a six-day total of $106 million in North America. The film debuted in 4,300 locations and will retain that count entering its second week. New this week from Warner Bros. is Malignant, directed by James Wan and starring Annabelle Wallis. The supernatural-horror film is estimated to debut in 3,800 theaters, including IMAX locations, while simultaneously being available to stream on HBO Max. Also new in wide release this week is the Kendrick Brothers’ inspirational docu-drama from Sony Pictures, Show Me the Father, opening in 1,073 locations. Rounding out the top five this week is Free Guy, going from 3,885 last week, to 3,650 this week; Candyman settling in at 3,279 locations this week; and PAW Patrol: The Movie, which begins its fourth week in 2,820 theaters.
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Frozen II wasn’t the only box office hit to debut in November, but it was by far the largest. It helped save November and kept 2019 from turning completely sour at the last minute. As for December, we have several potential $100 million hits, plus a couple of monster hits. There are some who think Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker will be the biggest domestic hit released in 2019, but most think it will have to settle for second place. Jumanji: The Next Level should also be a monster hit, even if it doesn’t come really close to its predecessor. As for last December, Aquaman was the undisputed champion, earning almost as much as the next twofilms combined. Jumanji could top Aquaman at the box office, while we could also have more $100 million films than we had last year. Add in Star Wars and the year should end on a really positive note, making up for the extended slumps we had to deal with through a lot of the year. 2019 won’t be able to close the gap entirely, but it will do enough that we will be able to celebrate.
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Sony’s estimates have Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse earning $35.4 million over the weekend. Its reviews and its A plus from CinemaScore should both helps its legs, as will the upcoming holidays. On the other hand, it does have direct competition next weekend, more or less. Aquaman will attack it from the super hero side of things, while Mary Poppins Returns will take from its family film side. That said, with a start like this, $100 million domestically is practically guaranteed, while $150 million is a solid goal to aim for.
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After two weeks with no new releases in the top five, we have three new films vying for a position there. This includes Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse, which is all but guaranteed a spot in the top five. The Mule was thought to be an Awards Season contender, but its reviews are disappointing, given those high hopes. Finally there’s Mortal Engines, a film that cost $100 million to make and will likely barely earn a spot in the top five. This weekend last year, Star Wars: The Last Jedi opened with $220.01 million. That’s more than the entire box office will earn this year. This could be more than all three wide releases earn in total. Fortunately, 2018 has a $1 billion lead over 2017, so three weeks of bad losses won’t change that.
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November turned out to be a really, really good month. I thought 2018’s lead over 2017 would shrink, potentially by $200 million to $300 million. However, the lead actually managed to grow a little bit, thanks to hits like Ralph Breaks the Internet, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, and Bohemian Rhapsody. December has an equal number of potential hits, led by Mary Poppins Returns, which some think will top $300 million. Additionally, Spider-man Into the Spider-Verse, Aquaman, Bumblebee, and Holmes and Watson all have a realistic shot at $100 million or more. On the other hand, last December was stronger, at least on top. The Last Jedi earned more than $500 million just during December, which is more than any December release this year will earn in total. It could be more than the top two films earn in total. 2018 will win the in year-over-year competition; however, its lead won’t be as large as it is at the start of the month.
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As the weekend approaches, there’s only one film that everyone is talking about: Black Panther. The film’s reviews are nearly 100% positive and Fandango announced its presales are the best for any pre-summer release. Unfortunately, it doesn’t open until next weekend. This week we have to settle for Fifty Shades Freed, Peter Rabbit, and The 15:17 to Paris. Fifty Shades Freed is widely expected to be the biggest hit released in 2018, at least so far. On the other hand, its reviews and the Fangirl Effect strongly suggest very short legs. Peter Rabbit is a family film and even though it has direct competition next weekend, it should have the best legs on this week’s list. Finally there’s The 15:17 to Paris, which is not living up to expectations with critics and this will likely hurt its box office chances. This weekend last year was Presidents Day long Weekend. 2018 is going to get absolutely destroyed in the year-over-year comparison.
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2018 got off to a good start and January more or less held its ground when compared to 2017. There were some misses, but surprise holdovers made up the difference. Looking forward, February will be dominated by Black Panther. In fact, it will very likely make more during its opening weekend than the second place film, Fifty Shades Freed, will likely make in total. Black Panther likely won’t break records, but it could come close, while Fifty Shade Freed and Peter Rabbit both have a 50/50 shot at $100 million. Last February, The Lego Batman Movie both earned $175 million, while Fifty Shades Darker earned over $100 million. Black Panther will easily beat any film from last February; in fact, it could earn more than the top two films earned combined. As long as the rest of the box office isn’t a complete disaster, February should help 2018 earn a significant edge over 2017 in the year-over-year comparisons.
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In the early evening of August 21, 2015, the world watched as the media reported a thwarted terrorist attack on Thalys train #9364 bound for Paris—an attempt prevented by three courageous young Americans traveling through Europe. The film follows the course of the friends’ lives, from the struggles of childhood through finding their footing in life, to the series of unlikely events leading up to the attack. Throughout the harrowing ordeal, their friendship never wavers, making it their greatest weapon and allowing them to save the lives of the more than 500 passengers on board.
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This month we’re introducing a new Bankability Index that estimates how much someone is worth to a film based on analysis of the Hollywood Creative Graph™, a network of over 130,000 people with over 6 million connections that represent all the films they have worked on together. By using an analytical technique called graph analysis, the Bankability Index measures the influence of each person in the Hollywood Creative Graph, which we translate into an estimate of the average value added per movie by everyone. Here on The Numbers, we will now publish each month the top 50 people on a per-movie basis, and subscriptions are available for our full report, which contains information on the top 250 people in the business.
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As expected, this weekend’s three new wide releases couldn’t budge Sully from the top of the chart with the Tom Hanks/Clint Eastwood drama down a very respectable 37% in its second weekend to $22 million, for a total of $70.5 million to date. Two films, Blair Witch and Bridget Jones’s Baby both had aspirations to challenge Sully for the title, but had to settle for second and third place.
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There are three wide releases this week, plus another that could sneak into the top ten. Two of the three new releases, Blair Witch and Bridget Jones’s Baby, are expected to do well. On the other hand, Snowden is only going to reach the top five due to the lack of competition. Meanwhile, Hillsong: Let Hope Rise is a faith-based concert film. It could reach the top five, or it could miss the Mendoza Line. There’s no way to predict its box office potential. Despite the number of new releases, Sully is expected to remain in top spot thanks to its reviews and target demographic. This weekend last year, Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials led the way with just over $30 million. It is likely no film will make that this year, while the depth is a mixed bag, so it looks like 2016 will lose in the year-over-year comparison.
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Four films opened wide or semi-wide over the weekend, but only one of them, Sully, did well at the box office. It earned more than double its nearest competition, When the Bough Breaks, at $35.03 million to $14.20 million. The other two new releases bombed. Overall, the box office was flat, up 1.1% from last weekend to $101 million. This was also flat when compared to last year, down just 1.7%. Since this weekend was so close to last weekend, it should come as no surprise that the year-over-year comparison hardly moved. This time last week, 2016 was ahead of 2016 by just over 6.7%, while this week its lead is just under 6.8% at $8.10 billion to $7.58 billion.
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Fall Season starts in lively style this weekend with an impressively wide release for Sully. The Clint Eastwood/Tom Hanks drama will open in 3,525 theaters, the most for a new release since Pete’s Dragon almost a month ago. That film’s $21 million opening will be the minimum benchmark for Sully.
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August continued to pad 2016’s lead over 2015 in the year-over-year comparison. It managed this feat almost entirely due to Suicide Squad, which is on pace to hit $300 million. The next best film was Sausage Party, which might make $100 million, if it gets a push over the top. September won’t be as strong as that. This is no surprise, as the month is one of the biggest dumping grounds on the calendar. That said, studios have been working to make the end of the month a lot more productive and there are a few potential hits. The biggest of these is The Magnificent Seven, which is expected to crack $100 million, maybe even $150 million. Meanwhile, Sully and Storks both have a limited chance at $100 million. Last September, the biggest release of the month was Hotel Transylvania 2 with pulled in $169.70 million. I don’t think The Magnificent Seven will match that, so we might need a surprise $100 million hit for 2016 to come out on top.
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On January 15, 2009, the world witnessed the “Miracle on the Hudson” when Captain “Sully” Sullenberger glided his disabled plane onto the frigid waters of the Hudson River, saving the lives of all 155 aboard. However, even as Sully was being heralded by the public and the media for his unprecedented feat of aviation skill, an investigation was unfolding that threatened to destroy his reputation and his career.
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It is a terrible time of year to release a film in limited release. It is just too late for Awards Season and there are so many Oscar contenders in theaters that the target audience is busy trying to catch up. That said, there are a couple of films here that I hope do well: Lamb and The Treasure.
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There are a couple of big hits on this week's list of new releases. Terminator: Genisys was a monster hit internationally, but it failed to live up to expectations here. On the other hand, Trainwreck earned $100 million here, but barely made a peep internationally. Of these two films, Trainwreck is the only one worth picking up. In fact, it is a Contender for Pick of the Week. However, I'm still waiting for the screener and I hate to give out this title when a screener is on its way. Because of that, I'm going with Better Call Saul: Season One as the Best of the Best, but it isn't the only other title worth picking up.
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It is a typical summer week on the home market with little to no prime releases. The biggest release of the week is Still Alice, which earned $18 million in theaters. That's not bad for a limited release. It is better than some of the wide releases that came out earlier this year. Fortunately, the Blu-ray is also the best new release of the week and it is the Pick of the Week. In fact, it isn't even close as there are no other contenders for that title.
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I recently reviewed the MacGyverMegaset and my opinion of Megasets remains the same. There's little point in going over the series, other than giving the basics. The real question is whether or not it is worth upgrading for those who bought the original releases? Or is it worth picking up for those who skipped them the first time around?
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Fifty Shades of Grey remained in first place internationally with $68.1 million on 10,323 screens in 58 markets for totals of $280.5 million internationally and $409.7 million worldwide. The film had no major market openings this weekend, but it does open in South Korea this weekend. It is already the biggest hit of the year after just ten days of release and it has made enough to justify a sequel. However, its legs are definitely weak and I'm don't think the sequel will match its box office dominance.
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With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the biggest prize, Best Picture. Like with Best Director, this is a two-horse race with the same two films at the top of the list.
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American Sniper was confidently expected to top the box office charts this weekend, and to give Clint Eastwood his best weekend as a director, but no-one was predicting that the film would break the record for the biggest weekend in January by over $20 million. As of Sunday morning, that’s what Warner Bros. is projecting for the film with their official weekend estimate standing at $90,205,000 from 3,555 theaters. Since the film had already played for three weeks in exclusive engagements, it will also grab the crown for biggest fourth weekend at the box office.
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The Directors Guild of America were the last major Awards Season group to hand out their nominations and did so over two days this week. Not surprisingly, for the most part, the same group of films appear on this list as have appeared on the rest of the Awards Season nominations. Birdman, Boyhood, and The Imitation Game all make appearances,
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2014 is over and for the most part, December was a soft ending to a weak year. This is bad news for two reasons. Firstly, it means the overall box office is still soft and it is unlikely that January will start strong. Secondly, last January was a great month, thanks in part to Frozen and other holdovers. The slump can't last forever and Taken 3 should help 2015 get off to a reasonably fast start and it even has a shot at $100 million. American Sniper got off to a really fast start in limited release, so it too could be a hit when it expands wide. By comparison, last January was led by Ride Along, but there were only two other films that didn't completely bomb. I want to say 2015 will start out on a winning note, but given the box office losing streak, it will likely pay to be pessimistic.
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We have a short prediction column today detailing the three Christmas day wide releases, as well as the two bigger limited releases. Sadly, none of these five films are really living up to potential and Christmas Day could be rather weak at the box office. Then again, why should Christmas be any different than the past several months. 2014 got off to such a great start. Last Christmas was busier, but not particularly strong either, so at least 2014 won't lose too badly.
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Mid-Summer weekend will produce a near tie at the box office, according to estimates released on Sunday, with Sony in first and second place. Think Like a Man Too will come out top with about $30 million, according to the studio—basically in line with the $33 million earned by the first film in the franchise. That portends a total that will fall short of the $91.5 million earned by the previous outing domestically, and with limited international appeal, this installment will be solidly, but not spectacularly profitable. Enough for a third film? Probably.
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There are two wide releases coming out this week, but none of them are expected to be monster hits. Think Like a Man Too could eventually get to $100 million, while Jersey Boys might become a midlevel hit, but no more than that. There are a couple of holdovers that should be very big players at the box office, as both How to Train Your Dragon 2 and 22 Jump Street will earn close to $30 million over the next three days. On the other hand, this weekend last year there were two monster hits, Monster University and World War Z, as well as a holdover, Man of Steel, that will make more than either of the two new releases this year will make. 2014 is going to get crushed in the year-over-year comparison.
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It is too soon to tell how May will end, as this story will be published before the weekend estimates came out. (Maleficent had an excellent start on Friday, unlike A Million Ways to Die in the West.) Overall, it was a good month with at least three movies that are on track to hit $200 million, but there was no really big winner for the month. It was nice and balanced. Unfortunately, last May there was a monster hit, Iron Man 3, and 2014 could not compete with that, so it lost ground to 2013. June hopes to turn things around and there are some reasons to be optimistic. All four weeks there is at least one film opening that at least has a shot at $100 million. There are even two films that at least have a shot at $300 million. Transformers: Age of Extinction should win the monthly box office race while How to Train Your Dragon 2 is a long shot to win, but I wouldn't be completely surprised if it did. Additionally, 22 Jump Street, Edge of Tomorrow, The Fault in Our Stars, and Think Like a Man 2 are all contenders for the century club. Not all of them will get to that milestone, but all of them at least have a short. Last June, there were three films that reached $200 million, including Man of Steel, which nearly reached $300 million. It looks like June of 2014 will be about as strong as June of 2013, more or less. If all films reach their potential, it could win the year-over-year comparison. Unless there are some shocking bombs, it shouldn't struggle so much that 2014 loses its lead over 2013 entirely.
It's the last week before Christmas, which means it is the last chance for last minute gifts. There are a number of first-run releases coming out this week, some of which are not coming out till Friday, or even next Monday. There are also quite a few limited releases and TV on DVD releases hitting the home market this week. However, none of these were big hits and very few earned strong praise from critics. That doesn't mean there are none that are worth picking up. In fact, we have a trio of contenders for Pick of the Week. Shameless: The Complete Second Season on DVD or Blu-ray; Pitch Perfect on DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack; and Arbitrage on DVD or Blu-ray. It was a close call, but in the end I went with Arbitrage. Also coming out this week is Rush: 2012 - CD and Blu-ray in a Deluxe Edition or Super Deluxe Edition, which is a clear winner of Puck of the Week.
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