November 26th, 2014
This Thursday is Thanksgiving, which means this is Black Friday and Cyber Monday, and a ton of shopping. It also means the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. Over the next month, we will talk about TV on DVD releases, independent releases, foreign language releases, classics, etc. but this week we start with Major Movie Releases. These are first run releases, franchise box sets, etc. In some ways, this is better than last year, as there were a wider number of big releases that would make great gifts. However, in other ways it is much weaker. I can't think of a single big franchise box set that came out this year. There are some smaller ones, like the Halloween Box Set, but while the franchise has lasted ten installments and 30 years, how many can you really say are worth repeated viewing? Fortunately, there were plenty of great films to come out this year, starting with what is currently the biggest hit of the year.
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September 16th, 2014
The Christmas Shopping Season is kicking into high gear with a great mix of first-run releases, as well as TV on DVD releases. The biggest release of the week is Godzilla and while it is worth picking up on DVD, Blu-ray Combo Pack, or 3D Combo Pack, it isn't quite Pick of the Week material. For that, we turn to The Fault in Our Stars on DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack and Eraserhead on Blu-ray (Criterion Collection). It was a close call, but in the end, I went with The Fault in Our Stars.
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July 24th, 2014
Transformers: Age of Extinction continues its lock on top spot earning $84.6 million in 58 markets for totals of $662.6 million internationally and $889.6 million worldwide. It is about a week away from becoming the first film released in 2014 to hit the $1 billion mark and it will top Dark of the Moon's international numbers in the process. This weekend, the film opened in first place in Germany with $11.16 million on 645 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $12.84 million. It also pulled in first place in France with $8.91 million on 890 screens. It earned first place in Italy with $3.87 million on 850 screens over the weekend for a total of $5.24 million. Its "biggest" opening of the weekend was in Brazil where it made $16.13 million, but that was with previews. Over the weekend it made $5.71 million on 504 screens. That's a lot of previews. The film's biggest market to date is China, where it has pulled in $306.28 million, including $26.08 million over the past week. However, it has been knocked out of top spot by a local hit.
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July 16th, 2014
Transformers: Age of Extinction remained in first place with $100.3 million in 50 markets for totals of $543.5 million internationally and $752.3 million worldwide. This makes is the biggest worldwide hit of the year so far. Granted, half of the film's international total came from China where it has made $279.75 million so far, including $56.36 million this past week, and the studio gets a very small share of the box office revenue from that market. As for new markets, the film debuted in first place in the U.K. with $20.11 million on 533 screens, including previews. This is the biggest opening of the year in that market so far. The film also did well in Mexico with $8.26 million on 3,131 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $15.84 million.
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July 9th, 2014
Transformers: Age of Extinction remained in first place with $95.8 million in 37 markets over the weekend for totals of $400.9 million internationally and $576.3 million worldwide. Its best market remains China, where it added $120.61 million for the full week giving it a total of $222.74 million after two. These numbers are important for two reasons. Firstly, revised totals in China put the film's opening there ahead of its debut in North America. Stunning. Secondly, the film is already ahead of Avatar's final figure in that market. Granted, it's barely above Avatar's pace, as that film pulled in $221.9 million after ten days of release, but that is still great news. It held up better than most films do in South Korea earning $8.05 million on 1,096 screens over the weekend for a total of $34.62 million. In Russia, the film added $7.04 million on 2,171 screens over the weekend for a total of $35.38 million after two. The last major market was Australia, where it pulled in $4.54 million on 623 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $17.32 million.
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July 2nd, 2014
Transformers: Age of Extinction earned top spot on the international chart with $201.3 million on 10,015 screens in 37 markets. This includes a record $99.81 million opening in China, which is basically a rounding error away from its North American debut. It also broke the record in Russia with $21.23 million on 2,171 screens. Its opening in South Korea was nearly identical with $15.88 million on 1,597 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $21.98 million. The final major market of the weekend was Australia, where it pulled in $8.30 million on 623 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $9.56 million. The film likely cost about $300 million to make and advertise, so it still needs work to break even, but this is an amazing start.
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June 26th, 2014
There is only one wide release of the week, but it is a potential monster hit. It is also potentially the last in a very profitable franchise. Transformers: Age of Extinction is the fourth film in the Transformers franchise, a franchise that has averaged more than $350 million at the box office. However, they have also averaged well below 50% positive reviews and the poor critical response could finally be taking its toll. It will still crush the competition this weekend, but it likely won't live up to past installments in the franchise. It will also beat last year's new releases and more than double the first place film; however that might not be enough to save 2014. Last year there were five films that pulled in $20 million or more. This year there will be only one. In fact, there will be only four films that pull in $10 million or more.
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June 25th, 2014
Maleficent rose to first place with $47.9 million in 54 markets for totals of $340.8 million internationally and $526.7 million worldwide. It became the first live-action film in Angelina Jolie's career to reach the $500 million mark. The film opened in first place in China with $22.01 million. Up next for the film is Japan and if it does well there, it could top Kung Fu Panda 2 as Angelina Jolie's biggest hit.
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June 18th, 2014
There were three films that were in a virtual tie for top spot on the international top ten. Godzilla squeaked out a win with $38.4 million in 62 markets for totals of $248.7 million internationally and $440.2 million worldwide after a month of release. This includes a $37.00 million opening weekend in China. Needless to say, it earned first place in that market. The film finishes its international run in Japan at the end of July and it should jump over $500 million worldwide when it does.
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June 17th, 2014
How to Train Your Dragon 2 missed lofty expectations and that allowed 22 Jump Street to earn first place. Both films opened well and their respective studios should be happy, while the overall box office rose by 15% compared to last weekend hitting $187 million. Unfortunately, this is still 8% lower than this weekend last year. Had How to Train Your Dragon 2 matched higher expectations, 2014 would have won on the year-over-year comparison. Year-to-date, 2014 has earned $4.64 billion, putting it 3.0% ahead of 2013's pace of $4.50 billion, so this weekend's loss isn't a big deal.
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June 15th, 2014
Moviegoers are spoiled for choice this weekend, with the two major openers both scoring over 90% positive reviews, and a wealth of returning films that are definitely worth watching. Top of the heap will be 22 Jump Street, which is set to post a $60 million opening weekend—well ahead of the $36.3 million debut posted by the first film in the franchise. With foreign territories also doing significantly better than last time around, 23 Jump Street is surely just a matter of time (my money’s on two years).
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June 13th, 2014
This weekend, there are two potential monster hits coming out. How to Train Your Dragon 2 and 22 Jump Street both look to improve upon the box office numbers their respective predecessors managed. Thanks to the sequel effect, they should both start fast. Additionally, both should have better legs than most sequels, thanks to their incredible reviews. The rest of the top five should all earn more than $10 million helping the overall box office. This weekend last year there were only three films to earn more than $10 million. One of them was Man of Steel, which earned more than $116 million by itself. No film this weekend will match that total, but the depth this year is much better. It should be strong enough for 2014 to win in the year-over-year comparison.
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June 12th, 2014
Edge of Tomorrow rose to first place with $82 million in 63 markets for a two-week total of $111 million. This includes a first-place, $25.68 million opening in China. It also opened in first place in South Korea with $10.52 million on 801 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $16.28 million. In Russia, the film opened on top spot with $7.41 million on 1,649, while in France it also earned first place, but with just $2.82 million on 585. It only managed second place in Australia with $2.88 million on 477 screens, while it could do no better than third place in Mexico with $2.88 million on 1,301 screens over the weekend for a total of $3.19 million. Its best holdover was in the U.K. where it added $2.08 million on 460 screens for a two-week total of $7.21 million.
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June 11th, 2014
The winners of our Young Love contest were determined and they are...
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June 11th, 2014
Obvious Child led the way on the per theater chart with $77,000 in three theaters for an average of $25,772. The Fault in Our Stars earned an average of $15,128, which was surprisingly strong. The final film in the $10,000 club was Citizen Koch, which earned $10,200 in one theater.
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June 9th, 2014
As expected, The Fault in Our Stars won the box office race this past weekend, while its opening weekend was on the very high end of expectations. (It did so with a surprisingly strong opening Friday, but more on that later.) The other wide release of the week, Edge of Tomorrow, did about as well as expected, which is to say it really struggled compared to its production budget. Overall, the box took in $163 million, which is 2% lower than last weekend. On the other hand, it is 9% higher than the same weekend last year, which is the far more important number. Year-to-date, 2014 has pulled in $4.38 billion, putting it 3.3% ahead of last year's pace of $4.24 billion. This is still a good margin and hopefully it will last.
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June 8th, 2014
After a big win for Maleficent over A Million Ways to Die in the West last time around, this weekend we had another battle between female-friendly and male-friendly films, and once more the women have won by a large margin. The Fault in Our Stars is set to open with $48.2 million, according to Fox’s Sunday morning estimate. That tops Noah’s $43.7 million debut to make the film the biggest drama opener of the year so far. Edge of Tomorrow will be a distant third with $29.1 million, per Warner Bros., which is fairly disastrous for a film costing $178 million. However, in spite of the big difference in performance between the two films, The Fault in Our Stars does have one fairly surprising weakness compared to the sci-fi actioner.
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June 5th, 2014
This weekend, there are two wide releases coming out, one of which is the obvious potential monster hit and the other being the obvious counter-programing. On paper, Edge of Tomorrow is the obvious potential monster hit. It is a Sci-fi action film with a production budget that is nearly $200 million. The Fault in Our Stars is the obvious counter-programing. It is about two teen cancer patients who fall in love, which couldn't be farther away from a popcorn flick. However, the buzz really suggests The Fault in Our Stars could win. In fact, it could break the record for biggest opening for a romantic drama. This weekend last year, The Purge won with $34.06 million, while no other film earned more than $20 million. This year, three films might top $30 million and the winner could pull in more than $40 million. I think 2014 will win this weekend in the year-over-year competition.
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June 1st, 2014
It is too soon to tell how May will end, as this story will be published before the weekend estimates came out. (Maleficent had an excellent start on Friday, unlike A Million Ways to Die in the West.) Overall, it was a good month with at least three movies that are on track to hit $200 million, but there was no really big winner for the month. It was nice and balanced. Unfortunately, last May there was a monster hit, Iron Man 3, and 2014 could not compete with that, so it lost ground to 2013. June hopes to turn things around and there are some reasons to be optimistic. All four weeks there is at least one film opening that at least has a shot at $100 million. There are even two films that at least have a shot at $300 million. Transformers: Age of Extinction should win the monthly box office race while How to Train Your Dragon 2 is a long shot to win, but I wouldn't be completely surprised if it did. Additionally, 22 Jump Street, Edge of Tomorrow, The Fault in Our Stars, and Think Like a Man 2 are all contenders for the century club. Not all of them will get to that milestone, but all of them at least have a short. Last June, there were three films that reached $200 million, including Man of Steel, which nearly reached $300 million. It looks like June of 2014 will be about as strong as June of 2013, more or less. If all films reach their potential, it could win the year-over-year comparison. Unless there are some shocking bombs, it shouldn't struggle so much that 2014 loses its lead over 2013 entirely.
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May 29th, 2014
Next weekend, Edge of Tomorrow and The Fault in Our Stars opened wide and while I think the former will start out faster, I think the latter will have the legs to become the bigger hit overall. It is also closer in theme to our prizes, so I'm going with The Fault in Our Stars as the choice for the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Fault in Our Stars.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Endless Love on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Endless Love on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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