June 22nd, 2015
It was a busy week on the home market, sort of. There were plenty of new releases on the video chart, with new releases earning five of the top six spots. However, the number one film, The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water wasn't a major hit, selling 584,000 units / $11.52 million. Its opening week Blu-ray share was 47%, which is really good for an animated film aimed at kids. Overall, this isn't a bad start, but I was really hoping for more. Its box office numbers were much better than expected, plus it was a great movie, but its home market debut is only good.
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June 3rd, 2015
Welcome to the column formerly known as the DVD and Blu-ray release report! In response to the changing home market landscape, we have renamed it the Home Market Release Report, and will now be including Video-on-Demand releases. It was a bad week to try and change the format, as there were a ton of great releases contending for Pick of the Week. Most of these contenders are TV on DVD releases, including Parks & Recreation: Season 7. There is also one limited release, Spring on Blu-ray, and one first-run releases, The SpongeBob Movie: A Sponge Out of Water on 3D Combo Pack. It was a close race, but I choose SpongeBob in the end.
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April 9th, 2015
Furious 7 dominated the international chart with $245.05 million on 10,683 screens in 63 markets for a worldwide opening of $392.22 million. Unless the film has terrible legs, it should get to $1 billion. Speaking of $1 billion, Universal announced they reached $1 billion worldwide for the year in the earliest ever time for the studio. The previous record was May 31st, which was set in 2013. So not only did they beat the record, they crushed it. The film's best individual market was Mexico, where it earned $21.5 million on 685 screens. It also cracked $15 million in the U.K. ($18.7 million on 537); Germany ($15.9 million on 650). Additionally, the film topped $10 million in France ($11.4 million on 707); Brazil ($11.4 million on 551); Australia ($11.3 million on 255); Taiwan ($10.3 million on 80). This is an incredible run so far and could be a good omen for the upcoming summer blockbuster season.
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April 2nd, 2015
Cinderella returned to first place after a week in second. It did so with $40.0 million in 53 markets for totals of $187.7 million internationally and $337.3 million worldwide. The film opened in a number of major markets, including the U.K., where it earned first place with $5.65 million in 554 theaters. The film took $3.8 million in France and $3.7 million in Australia, while Brazil was close behind with $3.4 million. The film's debut in Spain wasn't as strong at $2.1 million, but that was still the best result of the weekend and the third best opening of the year. Meanwhile in China, the film added $12.33 million over the full week for a total of $65.92 million after three. At this pace, the film will have no trouble getting to $400 million worldwide, which will be enough to cover its entire production budget and perhaps all of its P&A budget.
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March 26th, 2015
As expected, Insurgent earned first place on the international chart earning $48.4 million on 10,187 screens in 76 markets. The film's biggest market was France, where it opened in first place with $6 million, while it made $4.37 million in 497 theaters in the U.K. earning first place there as well. Its best growth came from Brazil, where it nearly tripled the first film with $4.2 million. The film had to settle for second place in Russia with $3.76 million on 1,570 screens, but that was still close to 20% more than its predecessor opened with.
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March 18th, 2015
Cinderella led the way on the international box office, but it can't be described as a Cinderella opening, as every one expected it to earn first place. The film pulled in $62.4 million in 31 markets during its first weekend of release. This includes $25.01 million during its first weekend in China, which was easily enough for first place. It also earned first place in Russia with $2.62 million on 1,550 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $7.06 million. The film placed first in Mexico ($5 million) and Italy ($4.6 million). It is still too early to tell where it will finish, but this is a strong start. By this time next week, it will likely have pulled in enough to cover its entire production budget.
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March 16th, 2015
As expected, Cinderella easily won the race to the top of the box office. However, it didn't quite do as well as expected. Additionally, Run All Night's opening was also a little softer than expected. Fortunately, despite this, the overall box office still bounced back from last weekend growing by 47% to $132 million. This was also higher than last year by 16%, which is really high for a year-over-year comparison. Year-to-date, 2015 is ahead of 2014 by 2.3% at $2.01 billion to $1.97 billion. This is not a huge lead, but it is still enough growth that the overall industry should be happy.
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March 12th, 2015
Last weekend was a disaster, the worst weekend at the box office so far this year. This weekend should bounce back with the opening of Cinderella. Its the first family film to come out since The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water and its reviews are excellent. The other film opening wide this week is Run All Night, which is the latest Liam Neeson action film. There's not much more that needs to be said about that. This weekend last year was led by Mr. Peabody and Sherman with $21.81 million. Cinderella will crush that figure. In fact, Cinderella might make more than the top five made combined last year.
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March 12th, 2015
Jupiter Ascending returned to the international chart in first place with $25.3 million in 53 markets for a month-long total of $107.0 million internationally. This includes a first place, $23.08 million debut on 7,028 screens in China. If the film can have even middling legs in China, it will overtake its production budget on the global box office. However, it needed to make twice that to break even.
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March 10th, 2015
It was the worst weekend of the year so far with two of the three wide releases bombing compared to expectations. It was so bad, that the three wide releases combined were lower than the high end predictions for Chappie. Unfinished Business missed the Mendoza Line and will be quickly forgotten by the end of the month. Only The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel has a future. Overall, the total box office was just under $90 million, which was 16% lower than last weekend. It was also 38% lower than the same weekend last year. The top five this year barely made more than the number one film from last year, 300: Rise of an Empire. The combined opening of the three new releases this year was dwarfed by the opening of Mr. Peabody and Sherman last year. Granted, 2015 is still ahead of 2014 in the year-to-date comparison, but the lead has shrunk to under 1% at $1.85 billion to $1.84 billion.
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March 5th, 2015
March begins with three wide releases. Or to be more accurate, two wide releases and a semi-wide release. Unfortunately, both wide releases are being attacked by critics. Chappie is being called a smart idea with a dumb execution. Unfinished Business is earning some of the worst reviews of the year and its buzz is really not much better than its reviews. The Second Best Exotic Marigold Hotel is earning good reviews, but its theater count is low enough that it might not reach the top five. This weekend last year, there were two $100 million hits that debuted, 300: Rise of an Empire and Mr. Peabody and Sherman. None of the three wide releases this week will get to $100 million in total. In fact, all three films combined likely won't open with as much as 300: Rise of an Empire did. It looks like 2015 will lose in the year-over-year comparison in a significant way.
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March 5th, 2015
For the third weekend in a row, Fifty Shades of Grey ruled the international box office, this time pulling in $36 million in 59 markets over the weekend for totals of $337.00 million internationally and $484.40 million worldwide. It will reached $500 million early this weekend [ Copy Ed: Just heard it crossed $500 million today with $352 million internationally and $150 million domestically for a worldwide total of $502 million]. The film opened in South Korea, but struggled earning fourth place with $1.25 million on 510 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $1.80 million. It might have struggled in South Korea, because by the time it opened there, the word-of-mouth has overtaken the hype. Its biggest single market is the U.K. where it has made $46.27 million, including $3.43 million on 545 screens this past weekend.
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March 4th, 2015
The winners of our You Need to Focus to Win contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Focus opening weekend were...
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March 3rd, 2015
As expected, Focus led the way at the box office, but sadly did so with a much lower opening weekend result than predicted. The rest of the top five were a little stronger than predicted each earning between $10 million and $12 million. That said, the overall box office was still weak, down 10% from last week to $107 million. It was also down 13% from last year. This caused 2015's lead over 2014 to drop. Granted, 2015 is still ahead of 2014 by $110 million or 6.8% at $1.74 billion to $1.63 billion, so it would take a while to lose that lead at this pace.
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March 1st, 2015
Will Smith remains a top 20 force on The Numbers Bankability Index, thanks mainly to his leading turns in tentpoles and franchise films. His draw in smaller movies has always been less of a sure thing, even in his heyday. The performance of Focus this weekend is perhaps not as much of a surprise, with Warner Bros. projecting an OK $19.1 million debut for the film—not a terrible number for the time of year, and broadly in line with the openings for Seven Pounds ($14.8m), The Pursuit of Happyness ($26.5m) and Ali ($14.7m).
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February 26th, 2015
The month ends with two wide releases: Focus and The Lazarus Effect. Neither film is expected to be a big hit, but at least Focus is expected to earn first place overtaking Fifty Shades of Grey. Overall, I think the box office will drop when compared to last week. Worse still, the box office looks weak when compared to last year. Last year, the box office was led by Non-Stop, while three films earned more than $20 million over the weekend. This year, there's a chance no film will earn $20 million. 2015 is very likely going to lose in the year-over-year comparison ending 2015's winning streak.
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February 20th, 2015
Next weekend, Focus will dominate The Lazarus Effect at the box office. As such, it is the only real choice for the target film in this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Focus.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of The Tale of the Princess Kaguya on Blu-ray.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of The Tale of the Princess Kaguya on Blu-ray.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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February 1st, 2015
It was a record-breaking January thanks entirely to American Sniper, which set records, both during its limited release run and especially when it expanded wide. There were a couple of other films that did well, but for the most part, it was a typical January. The question is, will American Sniper boost the overall box office, which would help February, or will its effects fade as it does? There are ten wide releases in February; there are a few films that may or may not open in the top ten. Of these, there are only two that have a real shot at true box office success. The biggest film in terms of buzz is Fifty Shades of Grey, which looks so, so bad. Personally, I would rather watch The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water a hundred times than sit through just the trailer for Fifty Shades of Grey. If Fifty Shades of Grey becomes the biggest hit of the month, it will mrean the end of civilization. Because. I. Will. End. Civilization. Last February was mostly mediocre, except for The LEGO Movie which was a huge early year hit. There's no chance any film opening this month will match The LEGO Movie; the top two films likely won't match The LEGO Movie. Because of this, 2015 will need to rely on depth to come out ahead. I'm not sure how likely that will be.
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