September 17th, 2017
The Big Sick is the biggest limited release of the year earning over $40 million. This puts it ahead of many wide releases, including Ghost in the Shell, Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets, and King Arthur Legend of the Sword, all of which cost more than $100 million to make. Is this film as good as its box office numbers? Or did it benefit from an historically weak summer?
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July 26th, 2017
The Boss Baby is the biggest release of the week, while Ghost in the Shell is a distant second place. Neither of those films are terrible, but neither are remotely good enough to be a Pick of the Week contender. Gifted was in contention, but in the end, I went with the Criterion Collection release for Lost in America.
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April 19th, 2017
The Fate of the Furious dominated in the international chart with $433.2 million in 63 markets. This is the biggest international weekend of all time, beating the previous record holder, Jurassic World, by over $100 million. Interestingly, both of these films were released by Universal. Furthermore, the film has already topped the international totals of all but the two more recent installments in the Fast and the Furious franchise. On the downside, the international opening weekend record isn’t the most prestigious record, because it depends a lot of how wide a release a film has. For instance, The Fate of the Furious opened in all but four markets this past weekend and of the remaining markets, only Japan is a significant market. The film has the number one overall international weekend, but only broke weekend records in 20 of the 63 individual markets and only one of those markets could be considered a major market. That one market was China.
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April 13th, 2017
Ghost in the Shell rose to first place with $41.3 million in 57 markets for a two-week international total of $92.8 million. The film was aided by a first place debut in China. It earned $21.15 million over the weekend for a total opening of $21.49 million. It also opened in Japan with $3.2 million over the weekend. The film’s international running tally is nearly triple its domestic one and that spread will only grow. This will help the studio somewhat; however, it would need to make over $250 million internationally to have any real shot at breaking even.
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April 11th, 2017
It was a good weekend at the box office, considering the time of year, but this was almost entirely due to holdovers. The Boss Baby earned $26.36 million, which was within a rounding of our prediction, while Beauty and the Beast was relatively close behind. This meant the best new release, Smurfs: The Lost Village, only managed third place. Furthermore, it wasn’t even close to second place. Overall, the box office fell 30% from last weekend. More importantly, it was 14% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2017 has pulled in $3.15 billion becoming the fastest year to reach $3 billion. It is also 6.4% or $190 million ahead of last year’s pace. It is still early, but 2017 is starting to build up a lead that will act as a cushion when it inevitably hits a soft patch.
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April 8th, 2017
There was quite a race at the box office on Friday. The Boss Baby led the way with $6.86 million for the day, putting it just ahead of Beauty and the Beast, which made $6.85 million. This is a 56% decline from the film’s opening Friday, which is a little high for a family film. Granted, its reviews are not good, but it did get an A minus from CinemaScore. It should bounce back on Saturday, but a nearly 50% drop-off to just under $26 million is likely at this point.
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April 6th, 2017
It is the first weekend of April and there are two and a half films opening wide this week. The widest of these is Smurfs: The Lost Village, but direct competition is going to hurt it at the box office. Going in Style is aiming to be a sleeper hit, but its reviews will likely get in the way of that. Meanwhile, The Case for Christ is opening in barely more than 1,000 theaters and it is aiming for the churchgoing crowd and no one else. On the positive side, it is Easter next weekend, so it should have good legs. Unfortunately for the new releases, it looks like The Boss Baby will have a relatively easy time repeating in first place, while Beauty and the Beast will be close behind in second. This weekend last year, The Boss opened in first place with $23.59 million, while Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice was right behind with $23.36 million. This week we should have at least two films top that, perhaps even three if Smurfs: The Lost Village is on the high end of expectations. 2017 should continue to add to its lead over 2016.
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April 5th, 2017
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Beauty and the Beast completed the threepeat earning first place on the international chart with $66.5 million in 55 markets for totals of $480.8 million internationally and $874.1 million worldwide. The film had no major market openings this past weekend, but it did do really well in a number of mid-level markets. Malaysia was the best earning $2.4 million, which is the second best opening in that market this year. Kong: Skull Island earned $2.6 million during its debut there. The Netherlands managed $1.8 million over the weekend for a total opening of $2.3 million, which is the best opening of the year so far. Likewise, it had the best openings of 2017 in both New Zealand ($1.4 million over the weekend and $1.7 million including previews) and in Chile ($1.5 million / $1.6 million). It will soon become the first film of 2017 to reach $1 billion worldwide and the 14th film from Disney to reach that milestone.
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April 5th, 2017
The winners of our Give Up the Ghost contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Ghost in the Shell’s opening weekend were...
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April 4th, 2017
The Boss Baby beat expectations and earned first place with $50.20 million over the weekend. The strong competition pushed Beauty and the Beast into second place, but it nearly hit $400 million and it is on pace for $500 million, so I wouldn’t feel too bad for the film. On the other hand, you can feel bad for Ghost in the Shell, because an opening of just $18.68 million on a $110 million production budget is a disaster. Overall, the box office rose 16% from last week reaching $169 million. Compared to last year, the box office rose 28%, which is very impressive. Year-to-date, 2017 has pulled in $2.98 billion, putting it 6.1% or $170 million ahead of 2016’s pace. We are far enough into the year that a lead this big is significant. That doesn’t mean 2017 is guaranteed to come out ahead, but this is certainly reason to be optimistic.
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April 2nd, 2017
A great marketing campaign and a beautifully-timed opening will most likely combine to give The Boss Baby a win at the box office this weekend, according to studio estimates released on Sunday. Victory isn’t completely assured, because the margin is fairly slim: Boss Baby is headed for $49 million, per Fox’s Sunday morning estimate, while Disney is expecting $47.5 million for Beauty and the Beast. Both studios expect Beast to win on Sunday, so the eventual winner will depend on today’s figures, but it would be a real surprise if the order changes when final numbers come in tomorrow.
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April 1st, 2017
The Boss Baby opened in first place on Friday with $15.5 million. This is higher than our original prediction and the adjusted prediction based on Thursday previews. Some are expecting an opening weekend of over $50 million, but that seems a tad high. The reviews have continued to improve and are now 49% positive, and the film earned an A minus from CinemaScore, which is bog standard for a family film. I think the direct competition from Beauty and the Beast will prevent it from getting to $50 million, meaning there will be a virtual tie on top of the charts over the weekend.
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March 31st, 2017
Ghost in the Shell led the way on Thursday night with $1.8 million in advance earnings. This was better than the $1.2 million The Boss Baby managed, and on par with what Get Out’s $1.8 million earlier this year. However, Get Out had legs that most movies would kill for, so it is not a good predictor. John Wick: Chapter Two, which started out with $2.2 million on Thursday night, is arguably a much better comparison. Granted, John Wick earned much better reviews, but it was also a sequel and those tend to be a lot more front-loaded. Using this film as a guide gives Ghost in the Shell a $25 million opening weekend, which is well below our prediction. This isn’t a disaster, but it is a weak start for a film that cost $110 million to make.
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March 30th, 2017
Two new wide releases attempt to dethrone Beauty and the Beast this weekend, but I wouldn’t bet on either of them doing it. Earlier this week, it looked like Ghost in the Shell was a potential $100 million hit. Then its reviews collapsed. The Boss Baby, on the other hand, started with terrible reviews, but its buzz is growing despite this. This weekend last year, the best new release was God’s Not Dead 2, which opened with $7.6 million, and 2017 is in an excellent position to gain ground as a result. Granted, the top film that weekend was Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice with over $50 million and no film this week will match that, but the top three films last year earned just over $80 million, while the top three films this year should earn more than $100 million.
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March 30th, 2017
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The winners of our Power On contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Power Rangers’s opening weekend were...
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March 23rd, 2017
There are only two wide releases next weekend, as The Zookeeper’s Wife has been dropped to limited release. Both The Boss Baby and Ghost in the Shell have shots at $100 million in total. I don’t think both of them will get there, but both at least have a shot. If we assume both films have an equal shot at $100 million, Ghost in the Shell would still likely get off to a faster start, as it is an action film vs. a family film. Because of this, it is the best choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Ghost in the Shell.
April 1st is next Saturday, so we are starting our April Fools contests this week. Two of our winners will get movies from our prize pool, while one will be chosen at random to be the fool and receive an HD-DVD release.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will be a potential winner of two previously reviewed movies, or the winner of the Fool’s Prize.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also be a potential winner of two previously reviewed movies, or the winner of the Fool’s Prize.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will be the final potential winner of two previously reviewed movies, or the winner of the Fool’s Prize.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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March 1st, 2017
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February was an okay month. The films that missed expectations were mostly balanced by the films that were pleasant surprises. Unfortunately, last February was amazing as Deadpool dominated the chart, so 2017 has fallen further behind 2016 and 2016’s lead is now about $100 million. It is not so bad that a good March won’t help 2017 back into the lead. Will that happen? We have some good news and some bad news. Good news: Every week there is one movie that has at least a shot at $100 million. Two of them, Logan and Beauty and the Beast, could reach $200 million or a lot more. Bad News: last March, both Zootopia and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice earned more than $300 million. That’s a really powerful one-two punch and I don’t think we can replicate that this time around. On the other hand, last March, the third best film of the month was 10 Cloverfield Lane, while there were four films that were expected to open wide that earned less than $10 million at the box office. 2017 likely won’t be as good at the top, but I also don’t think it will have as many bombs either. If Beauty and the Beast reaches the very high end of expectations, then 2017 could even close the gap with 2016 entirely. I’ll be happy getting halfway there.
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February 13th, 2017
Sci-fi action movie starring Scarlett Johansson opens March 31, 2017 ... Full Movie Details.
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February 2nd, 2017
Sci-fi actioner starring Scarlett Johansson opens March 31 ... Full Movie Details.
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November 13th, 2016
Sci-fi action movie starring Scarlett Johansson opens March 31, 2017 ... Full Movie Details.
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