February 26th, 2017
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It’s Oscar night and we were live blogging the show. Read on the the highlights of what turned out to be a crazy night.
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February 26th, 2017
It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. Before that, let’s take a last look at the nominations with a few annotations. Nominees in italics are those that have received the most votes from our readers so far in our Oscar contest (which is open to new entries until noon, Pacific, today—enter now!). Bold films are those films I think will win. Meanwhile, those that are Underlined are those I want to win. Not all categories have underlined nominees, because not all categories have someone I’m cheering for, or because there are two nominees I couldn’t pick between.
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February 26th, 2017
The Independent Spirit Awards winners were handed out last night. While they are rarely a good predictor for the Oscars, Moonlight’s performance was so dominant that its chances of winning Oscars have ticked up a couple of percentage points.
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February 24th, 2017
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the final category: Best Picture. It is not a competitive category with an overwhelming favorite, a long shot with a shot, and then rest have maybe a combined 2% chance of winning.
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February 22nd, 2017
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the two Screenwriting Categories, starting with Best Original Screenplay. At one time, La La Land looked to be the favorite, but that no longer seems to be the case.
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February 15th, 2017
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at Best Supporting Actor. Unlike a lot of other categories, this one could be a real race. We’ve had three previous awards ceremonies and three different winners, one of whom didn’t even get an Oscar nomination. I do have a personal favorite, but I fear my judgment is clouded as a result.
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January 24th, 2017
The Oscar nominations were announced starting at 5:18 am Pacific time. Nothing is good that early in the morning. Worse still, it’s a boring year for nominations with very few surprises worth talking about, especially in the biggest categories. Leading the way was La La Land with 14 nominations, tying the record.
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January 11th, 2017
The Producers Guild of America finally finished announcing their nominations. (They spread out their announcements for reasons I’ve never quite understood.) Most of the films on this list have already earned more than a few previous nominations. We appear to be settling into a predictable Awards Season.
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January 11th, 2017
The BAFTA nominations were announced and it should come as no surprise what film lead the way... La La Land with 11 nominations, Nocturnal Animals and Arrival are tied for second with nine nominations a piece.
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January 4th, 2017
The Writers Guild of America is the latest group nominees to be announced. There are a lot of categories that WGA hand out awards, but only three of them are theatrical releases. The list of nominees include several major Awards Season players, like Hidden Figures, but there are also some surprises.
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December 14th, 2016
After dealing with first-run releases and TV on DVD releases, we come to the instalment of our Holiday Gift Guide that deals with limited releases, classics, and foreign imports. This list should be longer than last week, but hopefully I won’t go overboard.
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December 14th, 2016
The Screen Actors Guild were the third group to announce their nominations for this awards season. So far there have been three different films earning the most nominations. This could mean the Oscar race will be a lot closer than in past years. This time around Manchester by the Sea led the way with four nominations.
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December 12th, 2016
The Golden Globes nominations were announced and we are starting to see a few names pop up over and over again. La La Land led the way with seven nominations, but Moonlight was right behind with six and Manchester by the Sea earned five. You will be hearing those three names over and over and over again this Awards Season.
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November 23rd, 2016
The Independent Spirit Awards nominations were announced last night and thus the 2016 Awards Season begins. There were a few surprises and some snubs to discuss, but for the most part, there’s not a lot nominations that broke the established narrative. It’s because there isn’t really an established narrative. This means films that earn nominations here have a much better chance of doing well going forward and Moonlight looks like it could rise up as a result.
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November 21st, 2016
This is the Tuesday before Black Friday / Cyber Monday. It is the last chance for a home market release to come out before one of the most important shopping weekends of the year. However, it also means the new releases coming out have to compete with massive sales and they will tend to get lost in the crowd. Overall, this is a negative for the new releases, which explains why there are not many big titles. The biggest release of the week is Kubo and the Two Strings, which is also one of the best. If you don’t have any of the Laika films, then the Box Set is easily worth picking up. However, I’m giving the Pick of the Week title to Mystery Science Theater 3000: XXXVII, because I’m a huge fanboy.
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November 8th, 2016
It’s not a particularly deep week for new releases. A lot of releases on this week’s list were good, but not good enough to be a contender for Pick of the Week, like Daredevil: The Complete First Season on Blu-ray. I reviewed Finding Dory this weekend, but I have already named it Pick of the Week. So the only real contender was Bubba Ho-Tep: Collector’s Edition.
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October 5th, 2016
Denial and American Honey were the only two films in the $10,000 club on the theater average chart this week. Denial earned first place with an average of $18,746 in five theaters, while American Honey was relatively close behind with an average of $17,801 in four.
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September 21st, 2016
No films made it into the $10,000 club this past weekend, but 3 Weeks in Yerevan came really close with an average of $9,748 in three theaters. Another film, The Beatles: Eight Days a Week, did well with an average of $7,322 in 85 theaters. Sort of. In addition to playing in 85 theaters, there were another 80 theaters that had one-time showings over the weekend, which is why its total haul for the weekend is $771,153. I really hope having a mixed of regular showings and one-time screenings doesn’t catch on, because it makes our job of tracking box office numbers more confusing.
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September 7th, 2016
There were only two films to earn more than $10,000 on the theater average chart. White Girl lead the way with an average of $11,353 in three theaters. Meanwhile, No Manches Frida earned an average $10,155 in 362 theaters, which is even more impressive.
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September 4th, 2016
Don’t Breathe is pulling off an easy win at the box office this weekend, and will become in the process the first horror film to win two straight weekends since Ouija did so, with some help from Halloween, in 2014. With an estimated 3-day $15.7 million, Don’t Breathe is ahead of Suicide Squad, which will stay in the top two for a fifth straight weekend with $10 million or so. Its total stands at $297 million as of Sunday, and will pass $300 million tomorrow. The relative success of those two films prompts a question… where are the new releases?
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August 30th, 2016
There was only one film in the $10,000 club this week and it was a re-release. Howards End pulled in nearly $24,000 in two theaters for an average of $11,920. The best true new release was The Hollars, which earned an average of $9.553 in four theaters.
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August 28th, 2016
Fall season begins in earnest this weekend with the low-budget suspense flick Don’t Breathe taking over at the top of the box office chart. Sony is predicting a $26.1 million debut for the film, which will be the best debut for a horror or suspense film since The Purge: Election Year’s $31.5 million in July, and the best for a non-sequel since Annabelle’s $37.1 million in October, 2014. Don’t Breathe has the advantage of really good reviews (currently running at 84% positive on Rotten Tomatoes), although it will have a lot of competition over the next few weeks, with films aimed at a broadly similar audience coming out every week for the next three weeks (not to mention a truckload more arriving in October).
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August 24th, 2016
Natalie Portman’s feature-length directorial debut, A Tale of Love and Darkness, was the only film in the $10,000 club earning an average of $18,585 in two theaters.
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August 21st, 2016
Three even-matched debutants proved to be no match for the incumbents at the box office this weekend, with Suicide Squad taking a third straight victory at the box office with $20.71 million, according to Warner Bros.’ Sunday morning projection. Sausage Party stays in second with $15.3 million, and that leaves the new entrants in 3rd, 4th and 5th. This was a weekend where diversity isn’t the problem, but novelty is.
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August 18th, 2016
Summer is over, at least as far as the box office is concerned. There are three films opening wide and another expanding wide-ish, but none of them are expected to crack $20 million over the weekend. War Dogs should come the closest, but even then, it is only aiming at the midteens. Kubo and the Two Strings is the best of the new releases, but recent history isn’t kind to stop-motion animated films. The final wide release of the week is Ben-Hur. This film cost nearly $100 million to make and it is expected to bomb spectacularly. Hell or High Water is expected to expand semi-wide, perhaps wide enough to score a spot in the top ten. Suicide Squad will likely win the box office race, but this has less to do with the film’s strength and more to do with the weak competition. Speaking of weak competition, this weekend last year, Straight Outta Compton earned more than all three wide releases combined. 2016 won’t be able to match it at the top of the chart, but there’s much better depth this year than last year, so 2016 should win in the year-over-year comparison.
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August 16th, 2016
Hell or High Water led the way on the Theater Average Chart with an average of $19,417 in 32 theaters. The studio was hoping for only half of that, so this is a fantastic start. The biggest new release of the week, Sausage Party, was next with an average of $11,042, while the overall number one film, Suicide Squad, was right behind with $10,232.
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August 14th, 2016
A precipitous drop from last weekend won’t be enough to knock Suicide Squad off its perch at the top of the box office chart, according to studio estimates released on Friday. But a 67% fall is steep, even by modern standards. On the bright side, it is less than Batman v Superman’s 69% decline in its second weekend earlier this year, at least according to the estimates. A weak Sunday would put the two films basically neck-and-neck on that front, and it looks increasingly likely that Suicide Squad will end with less than $300 million domestically.
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August 13th, 2016
Sausage Party actually earned first place on Friday with $13.5 million, putting it just ahead of Suicide Squad. That lead won’t last, as new releases almost never has an internal multiplier as big as holdovers do. The film does have excellent reviews, but only earned a B CinemaScore. This could mean critics liked the film more than its target audience and it will have short legs. Or it could mean it is a more niche market release and it will be a cult classic in a few years. Regardless, a $33 million opening is in the works, which is excellent for a film that cost $19 million to make.
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August 12th, 2016
This week’s list of limited releases is full of films that are earning good reviews, but not great reviews, and they will struggle to survive in limited release. Then there’s Hell or High Water. The film’s reviews are just shy of 100% positive and it is going to expand wide next week. It should have the most impressive opening out of all of the films on this week’s list. It might not even be close.
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August 1st, 2016
July did reasonably well, thanks mostly to The Secret Life of Pets, which will top $300 million shortly and could earn double its nearest competitor when all is said and done. That said, there were also a quartet of $100 million hits as well, so the month had good depth as well. August isn’t as lucky. There is one film that is expected to earn $100 million during its opening weekend, Suicide Squad, and one more that is expected to reach $100 million in total, Pete’s Dragon. There could be a surprise hit among the rest of the releases, (my long shot with a shot is Sausage Party) but for the most part, the rest of the wide releases would be happy with just $50 million at the box office. Last August was a disaster and Straight Outta Compton was the only hit of the month. Unless Suicide Squad bombs compared to expectations, 2016 will come out ahead in the year-over-year comparison.
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