January 29th, 2021
This weekend’s release of The Little Things continues Warner Bros.’ strategy of launching major films simultaneously in theaters and on HBO Max, following the Christmastime launch of Wonder Woman 1984. The studio can argue that its experiment has paid off so far, with Wonder Woman posting a decent opening, given the state of the pandemic, and also driving new subscribers to the service. Little Things will be more of test though, since it’s not a major franchise release and isn’t high on the list of most-anticipated movies of the year.
It does, however, come with an impeccable pedigree, and our model is quite enthusiastic about its chances.
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January 22nd, 2021
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The box office race is overshadowed this weekend by a barrage of release date changes precipitated by the continued terrible situation with the pandemic across North America and a growing acceptance that movie theaters won’t all be open and operating under normal conditions for quite a while. The first domino to fall was No Time to Die, which has moved from April 2 to October 8. Our release schedule changes page has the gory details of all the changes announced by studios in the aftermath. The consensus seems to be that major releases definitely won’t be viable as theatrical-only releases until late April or early May, and the big guns are mostly settling in to the October through December timeframe. It might be a while before we see a tentpole come to theaters that isn’t also being quickly or simultaneously released for the home market, either on a streaming platform or as a PVOD release.
All that adds up to long theatrical runs by default for the films currently at the top of the box office chart. Here’s what our model thinks of them this weekend.
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January 17th, 2021
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The Marksman will win the battle at the top of the box office chart this weekend, according to studio estimates released on Sunday. The action thriller is projected to earn $3.225 million over the three-day part of the weekend, and Open Road expects it to add another $480,000 tomorrow for a four-day opening of $3,705,000. Its debut is comfortably ahead of our Friday prediction, but a little behind Honest Thief, which earned $3.6 million over its three-day opening weekend back in October. The decline is most likely a reflection of the worsening pandemic conditions over the past few months, but Open Road shared some interesting demographic details that shed more light on how the market is evolving at the moment.
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January 15th, 2021
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MLK Weekend could have a close race at the box office as new release The Marksman goes head-to-head with Wonder Woman 1984. Our model thinks Wonder Woman has the edge, but it’s likely to be a close-run thing. Liam Neeson has an impeccable pedigree when it comes to action thrillers—this isn’t even his first outing in such a film during the pandemic—and Honest Thief beat expectations with a $3.6-million opening weekend back in October. Here’s what the model thinks about Marksman…
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November 15th, 2020
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Going into the weekend, hopes were high that Freaky could post the kind box office numbers needed to show momentum in the theatrical market. Instead, it’s falling well short of our prediction, and numbers from the rest of the films in the top six, including a sharp 55% decline by last week’s winner Let Him Go, are also mostly disappointing. Instead of an increase in top six box office this weekend, we’re looking at a market that’s still flat, or even declining. What went wrong?
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November 8th, 2020
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Let Him Go is pulling off a comfortable win at the box office this weekend, according to studio projections released on Sunday morning. Its $4.1-million opening is the third-best result during the pandemic, behind Tenet’s $20.2 million and The New Mutants’s $7.0 million, and slightly ahead of Unhinged’s $4.0 million, assuming the final numbers hold on Monday. While this is undoubtedly good news, which pushes the total for the top six close to $10 million for the first time in a while, the evidence points towards this being more a case of one film connecting with audiences rather than a significant market improvement.
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November 6th, 2020
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The race to be elected the top film at the box office this weekend is too close to call, according to our model, although the odds favor Let Him Go, which opens in 2,454 theaters, and has enough buzz to probably pull off a victory. Come Play would have to enjoy an unusually strong hold coming off Halloween weekend to secure a surprise win.
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November 1st, 2020
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Come Play is outperforming expectations and set for a comfortable weekend win, according to studio projections released on Sunday morning. Its $3.15-million debut is a little behind other recent chart toppers like Honest Thief and The War with Grandpa, both of which picked up $3.6-million openings, but it’s also comfortably ahead of our pre-weekend prediction of $2.2 million.
Is this better-than-expected performance a sign of a strengthening market? Unfortunately not.
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October 30th, 2020
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Although it’s unlikely to break any records (even pandemic-era ones), Come Play has a good chance to topping the box office this Halloween weekend, according to our model, which puts its opening weekend around $2.2 million. That’s not far enough ahead of Honest Thief for a win to be certain. Anything less would almost certainly point to another down weekend overall at the box office.
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October 25th, 2020
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With limited competition, Honest Thief will cruise to a second box office win according to studio estimates released on Sunday morning. Open Road is projecting $2.35 million over three days, down 35% from last weekend, for $7.5 million to date. As expected, The Empty Man was not much of a force, although it did slightly improve on our prediction.
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October 23rd, 2020
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Honest Thief has some theoretical competition at the box office this weekend, but the marketing for The Empty Man has been negligible, and its 2,027 theater count is not enough for there to be much chance that we’ll see a change at the top of the chart. The lack of new films also points to a down week at the box office overall, at a time when the industry could desperately do with some good news.
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October 18th, 2020
Honest Thief will top the domestic box office this weekend with a $3.7 million opening that is in line with expectations, and provides more evidence that the theatrical business is at least stable in the United States. Relatively good numbers for the re-release of The Nightmare Before Christmas bolster that argument, although 2 Hearts is underperforming hopes. Overall, it’s a story of two steps forward, one step back.
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October 16th, 2020
After last weekend’s surprise win for The War with Grandpa, this weekend is looking a little more predictable, with Honest Thief expected to comfortably top the chart. The overall strength of the market remains very uncertain, but our model is now assuming about 40% of moviegoers are ready to go to theaters, based on Grandpa’s relative strength last weekend. Liam Neeson is a well-known quantity at the box office, and Honest Thief joins a long line of Neeson thrillers, most of which have done very well at the box office. Our model has this new one opening at around $4.4 million.
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