June 22nd, 2013
There was a one-two punch when it came to new releases with Safe Haven topping the DVD chart, while Jack Reacher reached top spot on Blu-ray. Safe Haven sold 558,000 units / $9.54 million on DVD and 227,000 units / $5.22 million on Blu-ray. Its opening week Blu-ray share was 29%, which is better than expected, given its target demographic. In total, the film has sold 941,000 units / $16.09 million on DVD, while its Blu-ray running tallies are 373,000 units / $8.53 million. Jack Reacher opened in second place on the DVD chart with 320,000 units / $5.46 million, but earned first place on Blu-ray with 248,000 units / $5.01 million. An opening week Blu-ray share of 44% is good, but not great. After four weeks of release, the film has sold 539,000 units / $9.26 million on DVD and 383,000 units / $7.95 million on Blu-ray. I think the studio was expecting more.
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May 7th, 2013
While there are a lot of new releases listed on Amazon.com, it isn't long before you run into filler. Worse still, the top two selling movies, Jack Reacher and Save Haven, are just mediocre movies. The Great Escape is coming out on Blu-ray this week, which would normally be a reason to celebrate. However, a lot of reviewers are complaining about the poor video quality. The film needed, and deserves, a full restoration, but that didn't happen. We need to look further down the list to find a Pick of the Week contender, and we find one in 30 Rock: Season Seven.
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May 5th, 2013
During the holiday season of 2011, Tom Cruise starred in Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol. I thought it was arguably the best action movie of the year and it became the stars biggest hit globally and his best domestic hit in a decade (not counting a cameo in Goldmember). A year later, Jack Reacher opened with barely a fraction of the buzz. I was one of the most Bullish analysts and I was only predicting $75 million. The film did pull in $80 million domestically, which is better than expected, but nothing compared to MI:IV. Is it really that much weaker? Or did it struggle in comparison, because it wasn't part of a popular franchise.
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January 30th, 2013
There was a relatively close race on top of the international chart, but Django Unchained came out on top for the second week in a row. This time it earned $43.10 million on 6,421 screens in 64 markets for a total of $111.61 million after just two weeks of release. It is rapidly closing in on Inglourious Basterds as Quentin Tarantino's biggest hit of his career. It is also the most expensive film in his career. The film opened in first place in Australia with $3.95 million on 330 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $5.61 million. It also remained in top spot in Germany with an incredible $8.08 million on 650 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $21.32 million.
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January 23rd, 2013
Django Unchained began its international run in first place with $49.70 million on 5,863 screens in 54 markets. It opened in first place in a number of major markets, led by Germany, where it made $9.84 million on 482 screens, while it was nearly as potent in France with $7.54 million on 610 screens. It also earned first place in Italy with $4.60 million on 541 screens and in Spain with $3.40 million on 541. It had to settle for second place in the U.K. ($4.45 million on 445 screens); in Russia ($5.52 million on 736); and in Mexico ($999,000 on 451). It only managed third place in Brazil with $1.27 million, but it was only playing on 187 screens. Overall, this debut was 30% better than Inglourious Basterds' debut in the same markets.
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January 16th, 2013
Life of Pi remained in first place on the international chart with $34.95 million on 9,291 screens in 67 markets. Its totals reached $359.11 million internationally and $453.91 million worldwide. The film's biggest market of the weekend was Russia, where it earned $4.45 million on 1,575 screens over the weekend for a total of $25.07 million after two.
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January 10th, 2013
Life of Pi rose to first place with $59.30 million on 10,027 screens in 64 markets for a total of $302.04 million internationally and $393.08 million worldwide. The film reportedly dominated the Russian box office with $14.2 million on 1,600 screens. It had to settle for second place in Australia with $5.18 million on 545 screens over the weekend for a total of $8.36 million. It managed third place in South Korea with $3.06 million on 392 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $5.35 million. This film has yet to open in Japan and a few smaller markets, so it isn't done yet and it should have no trouble getting to $500 million worldwide.
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January 3rd, 2013
The winners of our Reach for the Top contest were determined and they are...
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January 3rd, 2013
We are still stuck with studio estimates, but it is clear The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey repeated on the top of the international box office chart this past weekend. It earned $106.5 million in 62 markets for totals of $464 million internationally and $686 million worldwide. Its biggest opening of the weekend was from Australia where it earned $18.6 million on 560 screens. This is the biggest opening in the franchise. It also remained strong in Germany with $17.17 million on 888 screens over the weekend, which represented an 11% increase and pushed its total to $61.14 million after three weeks of release. It was also able to earn more than $10 million in the U.K. with $11.18 million on 596 screens over the weekend for a total of $58.51 million after three weeks of release. The film has yet to open in a few markets, so getting to $1 billion worldwide is still the main target.
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January 3rd, 2013
All of the final box office numbers we're going to get are in, so let's take a look at the last two weeks at the box office. There were not a lot of changes with the final numbers and no film switched places, so there's not a lot to update. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey remained in top spot in both weeks with Django Unchained in close second this weekend and Jack Reacher a distant second the weekend before. The year ended with $10.76 billion, or about 5.8% higher than last year's total and just a hair above 2009's record total.
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December 31st, 2012
The last news story of the year is the weekend wrap-up, but since many studios are still closed for the holidays, we are still dealing with estimates. It appears that The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey won a close race for top spot just ahead of Django Unchained. Additionally, every film in the top five came within a rounding error of predictions, or was better than expected, and the overall box office was massive compared to last year. We won't have final numbers for the last two weekends till Wednesday or Thursday, so there will be a lot of catching up to do, but it is hard to complain about the results we've seen.
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December 28th, 2012
There are three wide releases this weekend; however, all of them were released on Christmas day, so we have a few box office numbers to look at. Les Miserables was a surprise winner on Christmas day, while both Django Unchained and Parental Guidance also beat expectations, which bodes well for their perform this weekend. Even so, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey will likely remain in top spot as it crosses $200 million domestically. Compared to last year the box office looks pretty good. No film topped $30 million last year, but The Hobbit should get to that mark this year. However, last year seven films topped $10 million, while only six will do so this year. 2013 has a shot at ending on a winning note, but it should be close.
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December 27th, 2012
This year, Christmas fell on a really awkward day and compounded with the smart decision for some studios to close the entire week, dealing with the weekend box office numbers is a little trickier this year. We are still stuck with a mixture of final numbers and studio estimates, but since we won't get absolute final numbers till likely January 2nd, we should at least talk about the numbers we have. We won't be able to compare the full weekend to last week or last year, because we don't have the full weekend numbers. But since most of the films failed to match expectations, things look grim.
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December 19th, 2012
For the next week, starting tonight and running till Christmas day, there are eight films opening wide, or at least wide enough to predict they will enter the top ten. Despite that level of competition, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, will very likely remain in top spot. Jack Reacher looks to be the best of the new releases, at least for the weekend. Meanwhile, This is 40 probably won't start as fast, but Judd Apatow's films tend to have really good legs. Monsters, Inc. is debuting in 3D tonight, but is destined to be a midlevel hit and nothing more. The Guilt Trip is also opening tonight, but I'm not sure it has the buzz to even be a midlevel hit. The final new release of the weekend is Cirque du Soleil: Worlds Away, but with an opening theater count of just 800, it will struggle just to reach to the top ten. And because Christmas lands on the Tuesday, and we won't have another weekend prediction column till Friday, we need to talk about the three Christmas day releases, Django Unchained, Les Miserables, and Parental Guidance. Last year, Christmas day landed on the Sunday, which makes the comparisons between weekends nearly impossible. I'm going to assume 2012 is going to come out ahead, mainly because they had nothing to compare to The Hobbit, so as long as this year's new releases are as strong as last years holdovers, victory is a safe bet.
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December 14th, 2012
There are a lot of wide releases coming out next week, but only two of them are opening on the Friday. These two films are This is 40 and Jack Reacher. Both films have roughly the same box office potential, but Jack Reacher should start faster due its genre, and as such, it is the target film in this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Jack Reacher.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of The Princess Bride on Blu-ray.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Patton on Blu-ray.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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December 1st, 2012
November was a strong month and left 2012 with a very easy path to a new all time record. There was only one major miss the entire month, Rise of the Guardians, while The Silver Linings Playbook was pulled from wide release at the last minute, so it is a little hard to judge its box office performance. On the positive side, Skyfall might top original expectations by $100 million. All this December has to do is maintain pace with last December to ensure 2012 sets the new record. I would like to say that will be easy to do, but I really don't know. Last year, there was only one $200 million hit, Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol, plus a few others that reached $100 million, so the bar isn't set too high. This year, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey is expected to at least come close to $300 million. Some think it will earn more than $400 million. However, it could also be the last film to make $100 million till February. December is normally a very good month to release a film, but the release schedule is so messed up that it makes it very hard to predict what will happen. There appears to be just ten films opening truly wide this month (I'm getting mixed signals on a few of them). That's a really light schedule for a month and a light schedule tends to help maximize the box office potential for individual films. However, eight of these films open wide within a seven-day period. That's insane. There's no way all of those films will find an audience and there's a chance that due to the competition, none of them will. Let's hope the situation isn't as bad as that, but there are some serious reasons to be concerned for most new releases coming out this month.
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