Weekend estimates: Encanto leads modest Thanksgiving weekend

November 28th, 2021

The first Thanksgiving with a full slate of new releases during the pandemic was full of uncertainty for theater owners. Family audiences have been returning to theaters but remain at about half their usual level, while the older crowd is mostly on the sidelines and at around 30% of its pre-pandemic size. A holiday weekend dominated by family fair like Encanto and Ghostbusters: Afterlife, with a side dish of the older-skewing House of Gucci is a welcome sight, but the big question was who would show. As it turns out, we’re looking at a modest weekend, with audiences hovering around their long term trend rather than rushing back to theaters. More...

Weekend estimates: strong hold for Free Guy keeps it top for second weekend

August 22nd, 2021

Free Guy will fall just 34% in its second weekend, according to Disney’s Sunday-morning projection, and a weekend total of $18.79 million will be enough to keep it at the top of the box office chart. PAW Patrol: The Movie will come in with a solid $13 million in second place, but the other openers are doing much more poorly, leading to a down weekend for the market as a whole. More...

Weekend estimates: Free Guy’s great start makes up for a generally weak market

August 15th, 2021

An impressive $28.4-million opening for Free Guy will more than make up for weakness in the rest of the market to give us a welcome “up” weekend at the box office. Free Guy’s start beats The Suicide Squad’s debut last weekend, which will undoubtedly add fuel to the debate on the viability of releasing major films simultaneously in theaters and on streaming platforms—Free Guy gets a 45-day window before it lands exclusively on Disney+, while The Suicide Squad is already playing on HBO Max. More...

Weekend predictions: The Suicide Squad headed for $30-million-or-so weekend

August 6th, 2021

The Suicide Squad should easily win the weekend at the box office as it goes up against Jungle Cruise (playing in its second weekend), and… not much else. After July’s relative banquet of new releases, August will be more modest in scope, and The Suicide Squad looked at one stage as though it might have had the month almost to itself. Although its recent tracking has been more muted, its Thursday preview numbers point towards an easy win this weekend. This might be the only weekend it tops the charts though. More...

Weekend estimates: Jungle Cruise opens with impressive $34.2 million

August 1st, 2021

Get ready for Big Thunder Mountain Railroad: The Movie everyone. Disney’s strategy of converting its theme park rides into adventure movies is hitting pay dirt again this weekend with Jungle Cruise on its way to a $34.2-million debut, according to the studio’s Sunday morning projection. That’s substantially above our model’s prediction, and it’s not the only movie to be earning more than expected: The Green Knight will earn about $6.8 million this weekend to land in second place. Those two films more than make up for the softness of the returning titles, and we are looking at a welcome “up” weekend for the market as a whole. More...

Weekend predictions: Jungle Cruise should sail choppy waters to the top of the chart

July 30th, 2021

Jungle Cruise enters this weekend as a firm favorite to take the box office crown, even though family films have been performing notably weaker in recent weeks and Disney has the film available for a premium via Disney+. Our model thinks it will do roughly twice the business of the number two film on the chart, and there’s a good chance it’ll do even better than that. With the other two new wide releases not expected to do huge amounts of business though, it’s likely to be a flat weekend for the market as a whole unless Disney’s latest theme-park-ride-turned-movie outperforms expectations. More...

Weekend estimates: Old leads on lackluster weekend

July 25th, 2021

M. Night Shyamalan returns to the top of the box office charts this weekend, but he might be the only person celebrating as every opening and returning film in the top 10 looks set to underperform this weekend. Shyamalan’s new film, Old is coming closest to our model’s prediction with an opening of $16.5 million, which is 12% below what the model expected. Snake Eyes: G.I. Joe Origins will come second with $13.35 million, which is 15% behind expectations. Those results are both well within the model’s margin of error, but the collective performance of the market is troubling. More...

Jungle Cruise Trailer 2

March 10th, 2020

Adventure starring Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt opens July 24 ... Full Movie Details.

A movie based on the Walt Disney Land ride of the same name. More...

Jungle Cruise Trailer

October 14th, 2019

Adventure starring Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt opens July 24, 2020 ... Full Movie Details. More...